Penn State-SMU Matchups: Who will have the edge in CFP's first round?

By Greg Pickel

No. 6 Penn State meets No. 11 SMU on Saturday for the right to face Boise State in a New Year’s Eve College Football Playoff quarterfinal round matchup at the Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix. This weekend’s CFP Round 1 matchup between the Nittany Lions and Mustangs starts at Noon ET. TNT is televising the contest.

“Obviously it’s going to be a challenge and we’re looking forward to it and the guys have embraced it,” Lions coach James Franklin said Monday. “And we’re going to need this place rocking on Saturday. Obviously a different situation at this time of the year and having a home game which we appreciate. I think every program in the country was battling to either have a bye week in the playoffs to start the playoffs or a home game, and we were able to accomplish one of those two. So excited about the opportunity.”

Who will have the edge on both sides of the ball? We dive into the matchups below.

When Penn State is on offense

Penn State enters this game without backup quarterback Beau Pribula, who is now in the transfer portal. Otherwise, it looks to be as healthy as it was across the board in the Big Ten title game. SMU starts the week with no new major injuries that we are aware of on defense.

The Mustangs are No. 28 in total defense, No. 90 in passing defense, No. 4 against the run, and No. 27 in scoring defense. Coordinator Scott Symons group is also among the nation’s best on third down. SMU faced only two of the ACC’s top five seven offenses this year (which includes itself at No. 5) and surrendered 27 points to Louisville and 34 to Clemson in the ACC title game. It is fair to wonder if the Mustangs’ numbers aren’t propped up a bit by the quality of offenses they faced. But, defenses do not become a top-five unit against the run by mistake. This group can rush the passer, too. It will, without question, be one of the stiffer tests Andy Kotelnicki’s attack faces this season.

The good news for the Lions is that it should be another big day for Tyler Warren. We’ll again, as we have all season, question whether or not the receivers can make enough big plays to take advantage of the Mustangs’ secondary. Penn State got its run game going against the Ducks. It will be difficult to sustain that success against SMU but not impossible. If the Lions can have at least one 100-yard rusher while succeeding through the air in a way similar to how it did in the Big Ten title game, it will be fine. Again, that’ll be easier said than done. But, we predict Kotelnicki and co., will get it done.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

A pretty common theme is starting to pop up locally and nationally when media members are making early prediction for this game: If Penn State is going to lose, it will be because it cannot get enough stops against dual-thread quarterback Kevin Jennings, second-team All-American running back Brashard Smith, and an SMU attack that fits the mold of what head coach Rhett Lashlee wants in an offense. Penn State has had plenty of success stopping opposing rushers itself this year, and if it slows Smith, it’ll slow its opponent.

With Tom Allen in charge, Penn State has also not had as much trouble stopping running quarterbacks as it has in some other seasons before this one. That’s another feather in the Lions’ cap as it looks to slow Jennings. There are plenty of options in the passing game, but there is not really one true star. Roderick Daniels Jr. will be used as a pass catcher and runner and is probably the threat at receiver. Jennings spreads the ball around well. That’ll test the Penn State defense. But the Lions have little edges in a number of traditional and also advanced metrics. All of those will add up to Allen’s group getting enough stops to allow the Lions’ offense to win the game.

SMU does plenty well on offense, but this will be the best defense it faces since a 18-15 loss to BYU earlier this year that promoted a quarterback change. The fact that Penn State’s defense is more battle-tested will be another key difference on Saturday.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–SMU kicker Collin Rogers may be the most overlooked individual player in this matchup. He is an SI and Football Writers Association of America first-team All-American. He is 23 of 31 on the year. But, he’s made seven 50-plus yard field goals, which is the second most in NCAA history.

—Isaac Pearson does a fine job at punter. But, he was not an All-ACC pick. He also did not make the honorable mention list.

–Penn State must handle punts and kickoffs well. Daniels Jr., and Smith, respectively, both get involved with those and could end up being a problem.

Final word on Penn State-SMU

Two weeks ago in this same space, we wrote that Oregon seemingly had a totality of small edges over Penn State that would lead to a Ducks victory in the conference title game. That proved to be accurate. And, we have a similar feeling about this game in the opposite direction. The Lions have a collection of edges, some big but mostly smaller ones, over the Mustangs. Those, combined with playing at home, give the Lions an overall edge heading into kickoff.