Penn State-SMU predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

STATE COLLEGE — No. 6 Penn State and No. 11 SMU meet today in a first round College Football Playoff matchup at Beaver Stadium. The 11-2 Nittany Lions are an 8.5-point favorite and the over/under betting total is 53.5. points. Kickoff is set for Noon ET on TNT.

Our weekly picks roundup gives you one final, comprehensive look at what data systems and experts believe before kickoff. And, as always, be sure to check your sportsbook of choice for any line changes, and remember to play responsibly!

Computer model picks for Penn State-SMU

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 30-25 Penn State victory. That’s a cover for the Lions and a pick for the over.

Sportsline sees a 36-24 Nittany Lions triumph. That’s a pick for the over, as well.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 33-22 Lions win. That’s a prediction for the Lions to win and cover while the over cashes.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a 16-point Penn State win. It likes the under, as it calls for 48 total points in the contest.

Lions-SMU picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of The Sporting News calls for the under to hit as the Lions win 31-20.

“Weather also could be a factor here. SMU ranked sixth in the FBS with 38.5 points per game, and Rhett Lashlee will favor an up-tempo attack around quarterback Kevin Jenning,” Bender writes. Look for SMU to feature running back Brashard Smith (1,270, 14 TDs) in the passing game, where he had 35 catches for 303 yards, to slow down the Penn State pass rush. Abdul Carter, who had 10 sacks and 20 tackles for loss, is a game-changer for the Nittany Lions. Jennings had six TDs and five interceptions on the road this season, and this will be the toughest road game yet.

“Penn State is 2-1 ATS when favored by 10 points or less this season. That home-field advantage will be a difference.”

At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon has it 30-23 in favor of the Lions. That’s a call for a PSU win and cover while the under just cashes.

“SMU boasts the third-fewest yards allowed per carry in the country, while Penn State’s rushing attack is third in the category,” he writes. “It seems like an obvious statement to say commanding the advantage up front is critical in this showdown, but that’s the reality. Beyond that, my main concern for SMU is turnovers. The offense had three giveaways in the early loss to BYU, six in a pretty ridiculous escape at Duke and two more against Clemson in the ACC title game. Penn State’s defense is more reliable than its playmaking unit, so offering up excellent field position would be crushing to SMU’s hopes.”

At The Athletic, Chris Vannini has it 24-14 Penn State.

“A lower-scoring affair than expected, due to two strong defenses and cold weather,” he writes. “SMU makes plays but commits turnovers, and Penn State’s talent wins out with enough plays in the passing game.”

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-SMU

At PennLive, its four-man coverage team is unanimous in picking Penn State to win and cover.

“This one is cut and dry in my opinion,” Max Ralph writes. “SMU is talented and not one to overlook, but Penn State has proven against two of the nation’s best that it belongs, and the Mustangs are just one year removed from being a Group of Five program. The ACC isn’t all that impressive of a conference this season, either. The Nittany Lions keep marching through the playoff.”

At Statecollege.com, Seth Engle calls it Penn State 31, SMU 23.

“The Nittany Lions showed something meaningful in the Big Ten Championship. That they can keep up offensively with any team in the country, other than maybe Ohio State. As Oregon scored relentlessly, Penn State found a way to keep itself in the mix until its final drive. With that same scoring pursuit, Franklin should be able to get past the Mustangs with relative ease.

Frank Bodani picks it 31-14 in favor of Penn State. At Sports Illustrated, Mark Wogenrich calls for a 31-23 Lions win.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Mustangs

Nate Bauer: PSU: 33, SMU: 28
Sean Fitz: PSU: 31, SMU: 21
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU: 34, SMU: 17
Matt Herb: PSU: 28, SMU: 24
Greg Pickel: PSU: 28, SMU: 17
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 34, SMU: 21