Penn State-SMU Predictions: Will the Nittany Lions win their playoff debut?

Penn State may be coming off its second loss of the season against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game, but the Nittany Lions also showed that night that they could hang with the nation’s No. 1 team.

But in some ways, losing that game may prove to be a blessing in disguise. Sure, they don’t have an automatic berth in the quarterfinals like the Ducks, but if they can get past SMU at home Saturday, it sets up what should be an easier matchup against Boise State compared to Oregon’s potential two opponents, Ohio State or Tennessee.

With that said, looking past SMU would be foolish, as the Mustangs ran through the ACC in their first year in the conference, only to lose to Clemson in the championship game on a late field goal. The Mustangs also finished sixth nationally this season in scoring offense (38.5 PPG) and 28th nationally in scoring defense, allowing 20.85 points per game. Their rushing defense has also been particularly strong, allowing just 93.4 yards per game, which is fourth-best nationally.

So, how will Saturday’s first-round showdown against SMU play out? Our staff offers up our predictions below.

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 12-1)

Penn State has a physical and schematic advantage over SMU in the team’s first-round playoff game on Saturday. Offensively, I’m still not fully convinced that the team can replicate its dominant running performance they showed against Oregon this weekend. However, they should still be able to run the ball effectively. They have enough tricks in the bag, even without Beau Pribula, to get the necessary yardage. SMU is stout up front, and it’s the one place that the Mustangs can challenge the Nittany Lions.

But on the back end, SMU does a lot, which usually leads to the same coverage. Like Penn State OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense, it’s designed to look complicated but land in the general bucket of “Cover 3.” Yes, with an extra week to prepare, SMU may bring something different. However, its secondary coverages lead to more problems. If the team tries to play man coverage, its safeties and linebackers will struggle to stay with Tyler Warren, or the team will run right over those players in 12 personnel.

If the team uses different zone coverages, its secondary look is Cover 4. Kotelnicki and QB Drew Allar have shredded quarters this year with various schemes and formations that typically lead to Omari Evans or Trey Wallace running down the middle of the field with leverage on a cornerback or safety. Penn State’s primary weakness is that it is off and press-man coverage plus pressure, which are not within the characteristics of this defense. As long as Allar stays poised, he should be able to find open receivers against a defense without a fierce pass rush.

Defensively, Penn State has a significant advantage up front and answers to the passing game weapons that SMU brings to Happy Valley. As long as they don’t let running back Brashard Smith bounce on run plays and quarterback Kevin Jennings bounce on passing plays, the team should be able to contain SMU’s spread offense.

Penn State: 34
SMU: 17

Matt Herb (Season Record – 12-1)

The last time we saw Penn State, its defense was getting carved up by Dillon Gabriel, Tez Johnson and company in the Big Ten Championship Game. That game was played on a neutral field under a roof, and Oregon knew it was headed to Indy long before PSU did, giving it ample opportunity to prepare for the possibility of matchup with the Nittany Lions. What’s more, Gabriel is probably the best quarterback in college football at the moment, and certainly the most experienced, so the conditions were ripe for an offensive outburst.

The conditions will be very different Saturday in Beaver Stadium. Penn State’s College Football Playoff debut will be played in the elements, and the environment will be the opposite of neutral.

It’s only natural to be wary of an opponent that has surpassed 30 points in 10 of its 13 games and has a dynamic quarterback in Kevin Jennings who can make plays on the ground and through the air. But there are two areas in which SMU has struggled this year, and they both happen to be areas in which Penn State’s home-field advantage could come into play: turnovers and penalties.

The Mustangs have turned it over all too frequently. They’ve lost 12 of their 23 fumbles, while Jennings and backup Preston Stone have combined to throw 9 interceptions. SMU is tied for 106th in the FBS with their 21 giveaways.

After PSU’s loss to Oregon, James Franklin pointed to the turnover battle as the key to the game. Penn State had two critical giveaways; the Ducks didn’t have any. Going into this weekend’s game, you’d like to think the Nittany Lions will have an edge in this area, especially considering that they should be better acclimated to the chilly field conditions than the visitors.

SMU is also one of the country’s most penalized teams, ranking 130th in the FBS with 107 flags for a whopping 1,027 yards. The Mustangs are the only team in the country to surpass 1,000 penalty yards this year.

Jennings and his receivers are going to be a problem, no doubt, but the home-field advantage should be worth a few points on Saturday, given its potential to exacerbate two of SMU’s liabilities. The Lions will likely need all the points they can get, but I see them escaping with a victory.

Penn State: 28
SMU: 24

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 13-0)

There seems to be little doubt in the mind of the betting public that Penn State will win this game. I usually like to go the opposite direction of the consensus. But, the Nittany Lions have proven over the last handful of years that they will almost always beat the teams they are favored over. And, the line has been sitting PSU -8.5 for more than a week. Could SMU walk through the backdoor with a late rally to cover the spread Saturday in State College? Certainly.

However, this feels like a few other Penn State games from this fascinating 2024 season in the sense that the Lions should take control early and never be in danger of losing, even if the scoreboard might not suggest as much. SMU has some strong talent and head coach Rhett Lashlee has it moving in the right direction. But, some of its production this year feels inflated by bad competition in the ACC. That will come home to roost on Saturday as James Franklin wins his 100th game at Penn State and punches the program’s ticket to the CFP quarterfinals.

Penn State: 28
SMU: 17

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 13-0)

Beau Pribula’s decision to transfer, which led to the news that Drew Allar will return next season, stole the spotlight earlier this week. Don’t get me wrong, Penn State would love to have Pribula for these games, but I think the loss of Pribula has been a bit overblown when I look at how people have reacted nationally. That’s not because I don’t think he’s a good player. Instead, it’s more so just the numbers.

In Penn State’s toughest games this season, Pribula played three snaps against Illinois and just five snaps each against USC, Ohio State and Oregon. That’s just 6 percent of the total amount of offensive snaps in those four games. Yes, he came up clutch for Penn State against Wisconsin, but as long as Allar doesn’t get hurt, the numbers suggest that Pribula would’ve only received a handful of snaps in this game.

But beyond that, I think this game really comes down to two things, the first of which is SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings. On the surface, he had an excellent season, but there’s one game in particular where he really struggled and that was against Duke of all teams. He threw for three interceptions and completed just 54 percent of his passes that week. You all know who coaches Duke now. Tom Allen’s defense isn’t exactly how Manny does it, but I’m willing to bet they watched that film particularly closely. Jennings’ PFF grade vs. Duke was 27.6.

I think Penn State also has to get its run game going in this one. Oregon’s rushing defense has some issues, but I do think they can carry over some of that success on Saturday.

Statistically, SMU looks great against the run, finishing fourth nationally. But dig a bit deeper and it’s easy to understand why, as the Mustangs faced just three teams all season that rank in the top 50 rushing the ball. Not only that, but over half of their schedule was against teams that finished 90th or lower in rushing offense this year: Stanford (No. 91), Virginia (No. 92), Pitt (No. 101), Cal (No. 108), TCU (No. 112), Duke (No. 125) and Florida State (No. 128). If you average out all their opponents, it equals out to 85th nationally.

Penn State’s rushing attack, which is ranked 19th nationally, has been far from perfect, but I do think it will wear down SMU in the second half. Allar and Jennings will both make their fair share of plays, but I expect Penn State’s defense will force a turnover or two, giving the offense extra snaps to wear down SMU’s front seven in the second half.

Penn State: 34
SMU: 21