Projecting Penn State football 2023 season record with updated ESPN FPI
James Franklin has made plain the aspirations of the Penn State football program this offseason. With the final season of a four-team postseason at work for the College Football Playoff, in his 10th year with the Nittany Lions, he’d like to deliver a berth before the expansion to 12 teams next season.
Recognizing the closing window of the current CFP era, that leaves the 2023 season to do so.
“Yeah, I think so,” Franklin said. “Because people look at different eras. You look at the BCS era. And then you look at the current college playoff model and it being four teams, and how that is viewed. Were you a part of that model or not during your time?”
Armed with improvements expected on the offensive line, at tight end, and at running back on offense, with an elite defense returning this fall, Franklin is determined to answer that question to the affirmative. Questions remain with a new quarterback and among the receivers group, but the aim of the program doesn’t change within those parameters.
“Yeah. I think at the end of the day, I would love to put Penn State and our team, and specifically this year, in a position to be a part of that conversation and make a run at this thing,” Franklin told BWI. “Especially with it being probably the last year.”
To get there, Penn State will need to work through a 12-game regular season ranging wildly in difficulty from its easiest to most challenging games.
Examining the schedule according to the updated ESPN Football Power Index for college football, which includes a wide range of analytical factors, the Nittany Lions enter the 2023 season ranked 10th. Here, we’ll look at the calculated likelihood of reaching those goals this season:
Penn State 2023 season projections
Projected win/loss record: 9.3-2.7
Unbeaten season: 0.9 percent chance
Win 6 games: 99.9 percent chance
Win Big Ten East Division: 6.3 percent
Win Big Ten: 4.6 percent
Make College Football Playoff: 10.7 percent
Make National Championship game: 3.5 percent
Win National Championship: 1.0 percent
Tasked with taking on two of the six highest-ranked teams in the Power Index heading into the 2023 season, Penn State’s path to winning the Big Ten East and the Big Ten is analytically considered more challenging than emerging from the regular season as one of the final four teams chosen for the CFP.
That reality plays out in the fact that Ohio State checks in at No. 1, with a 75.5 percent chance to win the division and 71.2 percent chance to win the conference. Michigan, meanwhile, is at No. 6 with a 17.6 percent chance to win the division and 14.3 percent chance to win the conference.
No other division in college football can claim three teams in the FPI top 10 ahead of the 2023 season.
Garnering an understanding of where Penn State is most likely to face setbacks during the 2023 season is also available via the ESPN FPI.
Penn State schedule by winning likelihood percentages
9/2 – 7:30 p.m. – West Virginia – 91 percent
9/9 – 12 p.m. – Delaware – 99 percent
9/16 – 12 p.m. – at Illinois – 75.5 percent
9/23 – 7:30 p.m. – Iowa – 83.9 percent
9/30 – TBD – at Northwestern – 87.1 percent
10/14 – TBD – UMass – 99 percent
10/21 – TBD – at Ohio State – 11.6 percent
10/28 – TBD – Indiana – 94.6 percent
11/4 – TBD – at Maryland – 76.3 percent
11/11 – 12 p.m. – Michigan – 46.9 percent
11/18 – TBD – Rutgers – 94.7 percent
11/24 – 7:30 p.m. – at Michigan State (Ford Field, Detroit) – 67.8 percent
