Penn State-UCLA Matchups: Who will have the edge on Saturday?

By Greg Pickel

No. 7 Penn State will be a double-digit betting favorite for the fourth time in five games on Saturday when it welcomes 1-3 UCLA to Beaver Stadium. Oddsmakers expect the Lions to win by at least four touchdowns over head coach DeShaun Foster’s Bruins, who have question marks at quarterback, an offensive line that is struggling, and a defense that is giving up a Big Ten-worst 291 passing yards a game and 398.2 total yards, which ranks 17 out of 18 conference teams.

“Coach Foster obviously has got a lot of history at UCLA,” Penn State coach James Franklin said this week. “Although he’s a first-year head coach, he has a ton of history there. It’s a team that is still kind of trying to kind of find their way. Offensively, defensively, and special teams, you see them do some really nice things at times. They played really, really well against Hawai’i. Did some things against Indiana, LSU, and Oregon that were impressive at times.

“But obviously, it is going to be a challenge for us with them coming into our place. Also them dealing with travel, just like we’re going to be dealing within the future. That will factor in as well.”

How will things play out on Saturday at Beaver Stadium (Noon, NBC)? It’s time to dive into the matchups.

When Penn State is on offense

Penn State featured a run-heavy approach last week to beat Illinois 21-7. While the Lions almost always lean toward the ground game versus the aerial attack, this week presents the chance to flip the script if first-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki wants to. In their three losses, the Bruins have surrendered 300-plus passing yards twice. On the ground, they have yet to give up more than 153 in a game. That is not exactly the compliment it might seem to be, though: Teams know they can move the ball in chunks through the air and save the running game for only when they need it. UCLA has given up 13 passing plays of 20 yards or more and six that have gone for 30 yards or more. Part of that is because of its limited pass rush: The team’s total of five sacks through four games ranks 110th nationally. The Bruins also own another dubious distinction: the worst third-down defense in the country, with opponents converting 58.18 percent of their attempts so far.

By now, you probably realize we will be giving the edge to Penn State’s offense. Receivers Omari Evans and Trey Wallace should have no problem stretching the field, and tight end Tyler Warren could have another enormous performance as it’s unclear who on the UCLA defense can handle his versatile skillset. The list of things we want to see from the Lions against this overmatched foe includes success on third down, explosive plays from the receivers, and an efficient Drew Allar. Seeing all three of those would be ideal, but just two of them should get the job done on this day.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

If you thought the numbers we shared about the UCLA defense were bad, wait until you look at some of the statistical production on offense over the first five weeks of the season. Quarterback Ethan Garbers seems to be a game-time decision after suffering an injury last week. If he cannot play, former four-star Justyn Martin will take the reigns. He has limited game experience to date. Regardless of who is under center, the Penn State pass rush should be able to feast for the second week in a row. The Bruins have allowed 12 sacks this season, which ranks No. 103 nationally, and the first-year Big Ten team is among the nation’s worst in punts per play, punts per points, yards per play, and third-down conversions. Simply put, there is little reason to think UCLA will come into Beaver Stadium and score on the Lions’ starters.

So, what do we want to see from Tom Allen’s defense? No pre-snap penalties. Plenty of pass rush success even if gaudy stats don’t come with it. Fundamentals when it comes to tackling and gap accountability. And the chance to put a lot of players on the field after halftime. If both sides play as they have so far this season, that should not be a problem.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Sophomore kicker Mateen Bhaghani is one of the program’s few bright spots. He’s 8 of 9 on field goal tries this season.

–Punter Brody Richter has four 50-plus yard punts and has landed seven of 13 boots inside of the opponent’s 20-yard line. He’s also forced seven fair catches, a number that should rise this week assuming Kaden Saunders is still back deep for Penn State.

–Former Nittany Lion assistant Brian Norwood is on the UCLA coaching staff. He is the assistant head coach, passing game coordinator, and safeties coach.

Final word

Coming into the season, many thought UCLA would struggle in the Big Ten. Even the biggest doubters probably did not think the team would look this poorly through the first five weeks. Penn State is rightly an enormous favorite and should have no problem dispatching the Bruins in what will serve as a final tune-up opportunity before a likely top-15 matchup at USC next weekend.