Penn State-UCLA Predictions: BWI staff weighs in on battle with Bruins

Penn State survived its first Top 25 test of the season last week against Illinois. Now, James Franklin and his team find themselves just over a week out from their biggest game of the season when they travel to Los Angeles to face USC.

That makes this Saturday’s game against UCLA a classic sandwich spot for those who follow point spreads, with the Nittany Lions currently 28-point favorites. Whether they cover or not is up for debate, but you won’t find many who believe the Bruins can pull off the upset at Beaver Stadium following a 1-3 start.

To be fair, new head coach DeShaun Foster and his team are in the midst of a tough stretch of games that’ll see them face four ranked opponents in four weeks. That began with a 42-13 loss at home to No. 23 Indiana on Sept. 14. The Bruins then lost to No. 13 LSU, 34-17, and No. 6 Oregon, 34-13, the past two weeks.

Now they have to travel across the country for a 12 p.m. local kick against a Nittany Lion squad that ranks seventh in both scoring and rushing defense, as well as 14th nationally in passing yards allowed. That’s bad news for a UCLA offense that’s averaged just 205 total yards of offense against its two Big Ten opponents so far.

UCLA will have history on its side, as the Bruins are 4-2 against Penn State all-time. However, all of those wins came between 1964-1967. That 1967 game was the last time UCLA came to Beaver Stadium.

How will Saturday’s game between Penn State and UCLA play out? Our staff put together their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 4-0)

The question for Penn State through its first four games isn’t whether or not it has the talent to run roughshod over many of its opponents this season. The glimpses of defensive dominance and offensive explosiveness and command have been there.

Rather, the question for the Nittany Lions to answer, particularly as they prepare to take on a struggling UCLA program with a much-anticipated date with Southern Cal on deck, is whether or not they have the discipline to do it.

Understanding that Penn State’s opponents are trying too, there has undoubtedly been more good than bad for the program thus far. But what it hasn’t shown is an ability to string the best version of itself for prolonged stretches aside from a Kent State performance that flirted with outright cruelty.

This weekend, head coach James Franklin has subtly signaled that the difference is important. Needing to transition from a team that wins games into one that gets into the habit of reaching its full potential when and where possible, the last game in a five-week stretch spent in Happy Valley represents a massive opportunity to do so. Whereas last weekend’s matchup with Illinois fell short of those aspirations, even in a win, the message of urgency will resonate this time around.

Penn State: 41
UCLA: 7

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 4-0)

As James Franklin discussed in his Monday press conference, the UCLA offense and defense are strongly influenced by NFL concepts. The offense runs pro-style ideas and from a pro-style set. The defense is one of the most diverse Penn State will see from a coverage and disguise standpoint.

But when you run so many different ideas, you need to either be a professional football team with full-time players or have some sort of system to simplify things for college students. As of now, UCLA seems to have neither. Offensively, the offensive line is a significant weakness for a team that has a pocket passer in Ethan Garbers. Garbers is now hurt and may not suit up. Without holes to run through or a pocket to pass from, UCLA’s offense is one of the weakest in the country.

Defensively, the Bruins have good players. While they don’t field a big-time pass rusher, they’re a decent run defense and have a font seven that will make you work for it. On the back end, the litany of zone coverages they run lead to mental busts and big plays. The players aren’t terrible, but again, they seem overmatched by their own scheme. With no pass rush to fear and a team that Penn State should shut down on the ground, the Nittany Lions should find a winning formula early.

Penn State: 38
UCLA: 3

Matt Herb (Season Record – 4-0)

It seems a little unfair to make the Bruins kick off their first-ever Big Ten road game at noon after crossing three time zones. But I suppose they knew what they were signing up for when they joined this conference. And in truth, the early start is probably the least of coach DeShaun Foster’s worries this week.

Foster also needs to make sure that backup quarterback Justyn Martin is ready to go in case starter Ethan Garbers can’t play. Garbers, a fifth-year senior, absorbed more than his share of punishment against an Oregon defense that amassed four sacks last Saturday, and he sat out the final nine minutes with what appeared to be a foot injury. Foster said earlier this week that Garbers is “going to try to get out there and play.” If he can’t, or if his mobility is greatly diminished, a difficult road trip will get even harder.

Penn State’s last two home games were more competitive than the oddsmakers expected and were still up for grabs in the fourth quarter. This week’s visitor will hope to do what Bowling Green and Illinois did by keeping the Lions within reach for most of the contest, but the uncertainty at quarterback makes an upset bid unlikely.

Penn State: 34
UCLA: 13

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 4-0)

Before the 2024 season started, many looked at the UCLA game as an intriguing contest, if for no other reason than the fact that Bruins are new to the Big Ten. As it turns out, that is likely the only thing interesting about this game. Head coach DeShaun Foster’s team squeaked by Hawaii to start the year and has since lost three straight contests by double digits. Statistically, it has one of the worst-performing offenses and defenses in the country.

As game week has progressed, there is a sense that UCLA is looking at this week as a chance to come together, hit the road, and right the ship. That may give Saturday’s visitors some early energy, which they’ll need seeing that this is a 9 a.m. PT start on their body clocks. It’s hard to find a way to suggest this game will be competitive. If Penn State starts quickly, any gusto UCLA rolls in with will evaporate, and the blowout should be on from there. 

Penn State: 45
UCLA: 10

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 4-0)

On paper, this looks like an easy win for Penn State, but I do wonder how they’ll respond for a Noon E.T. start against a 1-3 team. We’ve seen slow starts in this spot before. Add in the fact that they’re fresh off a Top 25 win and are also a week out from their biggest game of the season and that makes this a classic sandwich spot.

Meanwhile, UCLA is off to a rough start, but it’s not like they haven’t been facing quality teams in recent weeks. Indiana, LSU and Oregon are all ranked.

(Ok, that’s about all I got when it comes to making a case for the Bruins.)

UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers could miss this upcoming game with a foot injury after being sacked nine times in the past two games. The most this offense has scored all year was 17 points against LSU, and now they face a Penn State defense that could very well be the best they see this entire season.

But on top of that, the Bruins are also struggling to generate pressure defensively, as they haven’t recorded a single sack in their past three games. Penn State is allowing an average of just 1.25 sacks per game so far, so Allar should have time to find his receivers.

If Penn State comes out and produces offensively in the first half like they did against West Virginia and Bowling Green – they scored on 7 of 11 drives in those two games, including five touchdowns – they should be up double digits at halftime and be able to work the run game in the second half to put UCLA away. If they start out slow, we’ll see some restless fans in the first quarter, followed by a surge of effort in the second half.

I think Penn State should win this one fairly easily, but I also think trends matter, which is why I’m hesitant to endorse betting the spread. It’s a terrible spot to be laying four touchdowns.

Penn State: 33
UCLA: 10