Penn State-UCLA predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

STATE COLLEGE — Penn State is back in Beaver Stadium today for its second Big Ten game and only home contest of October. The No. 7 Nittany Lions welcome DeShaun Foster’s UCLA side to town for a Noon ET kickoff on FOX. As of Saturday morning, James Franklin’s team is a 27.5-point favorite. And, the over/under total is 46.5. After failing to cover a double-digit spread last week, will the Lions do so this week? Our picks roundup gives you that answer with predictions from local and national reporters, the BWI Team, and data system projections.

Computer model picks for Penn State-UCLA

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 40-9 win for Penn State. That is a comfortable call for a Lions cover and the over.

Sportsline sees a 41-13 win for the Lions. That’s a pick for a backdoor PSU cover while the over hits easily.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 40-11 Lions win. It’s another prediction for a home team cover and the over.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a 19.5-point margin of victory for Penn State and 37 total points. That would mean UCLA covers and the under hits.

Lions-Bruins picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of the Sporting News is in line with some of the computer models. He thinks Penn State beats UCLA 41-14, which would mean the Bruins cover while the over hits.

“The Bruins have covered the last two weeks in losses to LSU and Oregon. Can they keep that improvement under first-year coach Deshaun Foster going in a tough road matchup at Penn State? UCLA allows 107.3 rushing yards per game, and that will be the key against the tag-team of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen,” Bender writes. “The Bruins could run into a wall here knowing they average 13.8 points per game and Ethan Garbers has six interceptions, but we trust the defense to hang for a half.”

At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon sees the Lions winning and the over cashing. He calls for a 41-10 Nittany Lions triumph.

“Penn State is second in the Big Ten with 11.5 points allowed per game, while UCLA ranks last in the conference at 14.8 scored per game,” Kenyon writes. “I would be straight-up shocked if an overmatched UCLA team wins a noon kickoff. There’s your bulletin-board material, I guess?”

For The Associated Press, Eric Olson calls for a UCLA cover, too, and also an easy over.

“Penn State should be able to open up its offense a bit after letting its ground game dictate the pace against Illinois,” he writes. “Drew Allar could put up big numbers against a defense that has just five sacks and lets opponents complete 71% of their passes for 291 yards per game.”

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-UCLA

At PennLive, it’s four-man picking crew all have the Lions to win and cover, and three of four believe the game will go under the listed total.

“The 1-3 Bruins, losers of three consecutives, are making a cross-country trip to play at noon (EST),” Bob Flounders writes. “That’s kind of like playing at 9 a.m. for the UCLA players, no? Starting quarterback Ethan Garbers does not appear to be healthy coming out of the Bruins’ 34-13 loss to Oregon last week.

“The UCLA defense is allowing an average of 291 passing yards per game, so Drew Allar is going to sling it. Pass protection has been a major issue for the visitors, and Penn State is coming off a seven-sack game in a 21-7 win over Illinois. One could argue PSU did start slow against Kent State at home, leading only 7-0 late in the second quarter. The Lions still won by 56. Could PSU get caught looking ahead to USC next Saturday? Maybe. But the Lions’ backups are better than the Bruins’ backups.”

Mark Wogenrich of Sports Illustrated calls for a 45-7 victory for the Nittany Lions. That would equal a cover for the home side and the over.

“UCLA offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is two years removed from winning a Super Bowl with the Kansas City Chiefs,” Wogenrich writes. “Now he’s trying to cobble together Chip Kelly’s lapsed recruiting classes into a functioning offense. Bieniemy might have to do that Saturday without his starting quarterback. Penn State’s defense very easily could throw its second shutout of the season. The more interesting topic is Penn State’s offense. After a light workload against Illinois, Drew Allar should come out throwing. He could set season-highs in attempts and yards, even if he plays only three quarters. Big win for the Nittany Lions in their first game of the California doubleheader.”

Seth Engle of Statecollege.com has it Penn State 42, UCLA 7. Audrey Snyder of The Athletic calls it 42-10 in favor of the Nittany Lions. And, Jon Sauber of the Centre Daily Times predicts PSU 42, UCLA 10.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Bruins

Nate Bauer: Penn State: 41, UCLA: 7
Sean Fitz: PSU: 40, UCLA: 10
Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State: 38, UCLA: 3
Matt Herb: PSU: 34, UCLA: 13
Greg Pickel: Penn State: 45, UCLA: 10
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 33, UCLA: 10