Penn State-USC Matchups: Who will have the edge in Los Angeles?

By Greg Pickel

No. 4 Penn State hits the road to continue Big Ten play this weekend when it faces a suddenly unranked USC team in Los Angeles. Many thought this game, which is set for 3:30 p.m. ET/noon PT, would be a matchup of Top 25 teams for sure and possibly even top-10 teams. However, the Trojans were upset at Minnesota last weekend and went tumbling out of the latest polls.

“USC and Lincoln Riley, obviously Lincoln has a history of doing some really, really good things across his career both at USC and Oklahoma,” Penn State coach James Franklin said Monday “Obviously, USC speaks for itself. It’s a program with tremendous tradition and history, and we’re looking forward to this opportunity and the venue. So should be a great opportunity for us.”

Who will have the edge on both sides of the ball? We break it down below.

When Penn State is on offense

The USC defense is coached by former Nittany Lion D’Anton Lynn. It looked like he had that unit going in the right direction after it struggled mightily a year ago. But, it took some lumps against the Golden Gophers. A balanced Minnesota attack racked up 193 yards on the ground and 169 through the air and had three 20-plus yard passing plays and a 40-yard rush. One of USC’s biggest issue defensively is its pass rush. The Trojans are last in the Big Ten in sacks with six and have just 23 tackles for loss, which is near the bottom of the conference, as is the team’s 13 passes defended and three interceptions. It’s five forced fumbles is near the top of the league.

All told, though, this defense should not scare Penn State with or without starting right tackle Anthony Donkoh, who was hurt last week. Its rush defense is much softer than its pass defense, which should play right into Penn State’s hands assuming Nicholas Singleton is back in action to team up with Kaytron Allen. If the Lions can control the game on the ground they should have no problem from start to finish.

USC has some talented defenders, headlined by Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, but it may be missing star linebacker Eric Gentry. PSU should have too much firepower to be held off for four quarters. If the Lions are slow out of the gate on offense, though, things could go off the rails early. But, we trust Andy Kotelnicki and co., to get that corrected this week. One final note: Third downs will be the key to the game as they always are. USC has the nation’s No. 6 third-down defense. Penn State has the No. 7 third-down offense. The side that wins that battle likely wins the game.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

This will be the best offense Penn State has faced since the opener at West Virginia. Miller Moss quarterbacks an offense that is averaging 30 points a game. Reilly calls the plays. This is a pass first attack. The Trojans will want Moss to chuck it around early and often with hopes of having to not rely on their rushing attack until it’s clock-killing time.

Receivers Zachariah Branch and Ja’Kobi Lane each have 21 catches on the season. They are the top targets. But Duce Robinson, another receiver, is a touchdown machine, running back Woody Marks is used a lot as a route runner out of the backfield (he’s caught a pass in 50 straight games), and Lake McRee will be involved from the tight end position if he’s available after missing the last two games. Penn State will not have the luxury of overcoming communication and assignment errors like we saw in September. This offense can simply make you pay in a hurry for those.

There is good news for the Lions. The USC offensive line is not very good. Its eight sacks allowed and 45 tackles for loss against are middle of the pack nationally. The Trojans will surely do what others have done to Penn State previously and try to get the ball out quick to neutralize the team’s talented pass rush. But, we don’t believe they’ll be able to hold Tom Allen’s rushers off forever, and when they finally do start to create havoc, that will lead to USC’s other issue: Turnovers.

Moss had two killers ones at Minnesota last week and is part of the reason why the Trojans are No. 92 nationally in turnover margin. They’ve given it away nine times this season and only taken it away seven. That’s a bad recipe when playing a top five team, even at home. Combine that with the Lions’ tremendous second half defense to date, and we’ll give them the edge, though it’s not as big of a gap as you might thing.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Branch is dynamic in the return game. He was an All-American in 2023 after recording a punt and kick return touchdown. He’s not been as much of a threat this year from a numbers perspective, but make no mistake: He can change a game in a moment’s notice.

–Only 21 of Michael Lantz’s 30 kickoffs this year have gone for touchbacks. The Lions might be able to get something going in that department this week. Lantz is also the field goal kicker. He is 7 of 9 on the season. He missed from 47 at Minnesota but made a career-long 54-yard boot.

–Eddie Czaplicki handles the punting. His 50.1 yards per punt is third in the country and the Trojans’ 46.25 net punting yards are thirdin the country. He can help USC win the field position battle. The Lions have a good punter in their own right, of course, but they need more consistency from Riley Thompson.

Final word on Penn State-USC

This should be a fantastic game. Both teams have things they can point to when making a case that they will leave victorious. A blowout in either direction would surprise us. We’ll log our predictions on Thursday. For now, though, Penn State seems to have a few more edges than USC, which should lead to a close road victory.