Penn State-USC predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

STATE COLLEGE — No. 4 Penn State is just 2-3 against the point spread so far in 2024, and the under has cashed in four of five games so far. Its Saturday foe, USC, has covered in three of its five games so far and has played to two overs and three under so far this season. That data might help inform some picks and predictions for this weekend’s matchup, where the Lions are a 3.5-point favorite while the total bounces around 50. Who will win, cover, and which side of the total will hit? Our picks roundup gives you one final, comprehensive look at what data systems and experts believe before kickoff. And, as always, be sure to check your sports book of choice for any line changes and remember to play responsibly!

Computer model picks for Penn State-USC

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 33-24 win for Penn State. That is a comfortable call for a Lions cover and also the over.

Sportsline sees a 33-25 win for the Lions. That’s a pick for a PSU cover. And, the over would hit easily.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 28-25 Lions win. That’s a pick for USC to cover and the game to go over.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a USC upset. It calls for a 26-25 triumph. That would obviously equal a cover for the road team and either and over or under depending on which number you take.

Lions-Trojans picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of the Sporting News calls for a 28-24 PSU win. That equals a possible cover for the away side if the number dips and a clear call for the over.

“USC has two Big Ten losses after a stunner at Minnesota,” Bender writes. “Can the Trojans slow down Penn State’s rushing attack? USC ranks 17th in the Big Ten in run defense, and Penn State will be content to hammer away with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen against a run defense that has allowed 5.3 yards per carry in Big Ten play.

“Miller Moss should be able to have success against the Penn State secondary, and that cross-country thing is coming into play. Can the Nittany Lions pass the road test? A desperate USC team keeps it close, but Penn State survives.”

At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon calls for a 24-20 final in favor of the Lions. That would equal a USC cover and the under.

“Similar to taking WVU over Iowa State, I’m not confident,” Kenyon writers. “But if the Trojans cut down on turnovers—eight in the last three outings—they can hand Penn State its first loss. We’re still learning how much travel will affect Big Ten teams, but this is an ideal situation for a home underdog. USC can attest to that after losing at Michigan and Minnesota.”

Fox Sports commentator Joel Klatt has Penn State taking this one 20-17, which signals another pick for the Trojans to cover while the Lions leave LA with a ‘W.’ On3’s JD PicKell, meanwhile, calls for a Lions victory and the over. From On3 reporting:

“Penn State is definitely more aggressive and more physical based on recent weeks. PicKell said that’s the difference as the Nittany Lions will win in the range of 31-23, covering the spread as well.”

For The Associated Press, Eric Olson calls for a USC cover but PSU win, too, by a final of 28-24.

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-USC

At PennLive, its four-man picking crew is split. Two have the Lions winning and covering. The other two have the Trojans winning outright and thus not needing the points to cover.

“Penn State should be able to win by controlling the tempo, playing bully ball with their bruising run game,” Joe Hermitt writes. “But the inconsistency of the offense combined with the intangibles involved in traveling across the country leave doubts. After last week’s loss at Minnesota, this is a must-win for a desperate Trojans team.”

Mark Wogenrich of Sports Illustrated calls for a 45-7 victory for the Nittany Lions. That would equal a cover for the home side and the over.

“It’s delicious that USC has chosen Sam Darnold to lead the Trojans onto the field for this game,” Wogenrich writes. “Darnold, of course, authored USC’s brazen 52-49, comeback victory over Penn State in the 2017 Rose Bowl. Good for USC, getting in a saucy spirit for Saturday.

“Now, do the Trojans have the defensive will to withstand Penn State’s withering run game, one that takes pride and pleasure in leveling defenders? By contrast, can Penn State’s front four generate enough pressure on Moss without resorting to blitzes and leaving the quarterback access to routes over the middle? USC’s two losses aside, this is a matchup gem, one that favors the Nittany Lions by a breath.”

How the BWI staff picked Lions-USC

Nate Bauer: PSU: 34, USC: 27
Sean Fitz: PSU: 24, USC: 19
Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State: 28, USC: 17
Matt Herb: USC: 27, PSU: 21
Greg Pickel: PSU: 27, USC: 23
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 28, USC: 24