Penn State-USC Predictions: Lions set for first marquee Big Ten game of the season

Penn State is set for its first major test of the season this weekend when it travels to Los Angeles to face USC. This time last week, the Trojans were ranked just outside the top 10 nationally in the Associated Press Poll at No. 11 overall. However, that all changed last Saturday night, as Minnesota managed to score 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 24-17.

Now, the Trojans are outside the AP Top 25 altogether, but of course, that’s not going to make this road trip any easier for James Franklin and his team. If anything, it may make it harder in some ways. Already with two losses, USC is in do-or-die mode if they want any chance of making this year’s College Football Playoff.

All time, these two programs have played 10 games, with USC holding a 6-4 edge. Of course, the last meeting between these schools went down as an all-time classic in the Rose Bowl, with USC pulling out a late win 52-49 win in 2017 that still haunts many Penn State fans to this day.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 5-0)

Throw out the “ranked opponent” stuff on this one. For James Franklin and Penn State, that Southern Cal – a team that has already beaten a good LSU outfit and nearly did the same at Michigan – doesn’t have a number next to their name is as meaningless as the No. 4 that currently sits next to the Nittany Lions.

Rather, this is a next step up in competition. And, it’s going to happen on the other side of the country, which is already proving to be exactly the type of predictor of success and failure one would anticipate for a college game that is unaccustomed to national instead of regional travel.

While those two elements will likely influence performance for this Penn State team, they shouldn’t outweigh the identity the program has established for itself. A group that is physical and aggressive offensively and makes mature decisions guided by the steady hand of Drew Allar, the Nittany Lions are poised to continue that trajectory against a USC defense that has been bullied this season at times. Defensively, this will be the first pass-heavy offense Penn State has seen this season. But, the Trojans’ vulnerabilities up front could bode well for a defensive line that has shown its propensity for making quarterbacks uncomfortable.

A test in every sense, it’s one Penn State has the ability to pass.

Penn State: 34
USC: 27

Sean Fitz (Season Record – 5-0)

Two months ago, I had this down as one of two losses on Penn State’s schedule in my season prediction. Even two weeks ago, the same was true. The Nittany Lions are walking into a tough situation against a team with talent.  They are also leaving State College for the first time since August and heading a couple of time zones down the road. I have flip-flopped, however, probably more than I care to admit. 

The reason? The line of scrimmage. 

Penn State has it, while USC leaves something to be desired. That is something that can travel. The Nittany Lions’ defensive line has an opportunity to dictate the game in the same manner that it did against West Virginia to open the season. The team’s pass rush is a clear strength against what looks to be a continuing weakness for the Trojans. Look for USC to continue the trend of what we’ve seen in the last few weeks, as they will try to get the ball out quickly and take advantage of Penn State’s aggressiveness with the screen and draw games. Trojans quarterback Miller Moss has a lot of talent, but not a lot of time. If Penn State can throw some offense together early — points, not just yards — Abdul Carter and Zane Durant have a chance to make some impact plays. 

Injury Update: Will Penn State have its starting right tackle at USC?

But that can only happen if Allar and the Penn State offense can kick it in gear quicker than they have in the past few weeks. He’s heading into a Big Ten road atmosphere that is different from what he has seen so far.  So he needs to be comfortable right off the bat. That may mean some short rhythm throws to Trey Wallace and Tyler Warren. There is space out there to find against the USC D. Maybe it comes in the pass game, but don’t be surprised if it comes via Nick Singleton. After missing last week against UCLA, and showing the country that the Nittany Lions are not that explosive without him in the lineup, Singleton’s presence will be needed against the Trojans. Get him into space, whether it be on a second level run or as a receiver, and good things can happen. 

Finally, Penn State’s special teams have not been good enough so far this fall. The Nittany Lions don’t have to do anything, well, special, in the return game, but it’s a big week for punter Riley Thompson and kickoff specialist Gabe Nwosu. They need to be on their game if the Nittany Lions find themselves in a field position game on the road. 

Penn State: 24
USC: 19

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 5-0)

There’s a fairly clear recipe for beating USC that Michigan and Minnesota used to keep a lid on the Trojans offense. Play zone, run the ball, and eventually force them to pass downfield, opening up its weak offensive line to pressure and sacks.

The question is if the Penn State defense can execute that plan. So far this season, the Nittany Lions have predominately played man coverage to take away easy-access throws and leave the opposing quarterback with few good options on any given play. But in the two games against Power Four opponents where the opposition played predominantly man, USC put up yards and points through the air. Can Penn State adjust it’s scheme enough to capitalize on the blueprint laid out by Utah State, Michigan and Minnesota?

I think they can.

Offensively, Penn State has done enough and won in enough ways that you should trust the offense to get points, slow start or no. A fast start could guarantee a route, or at least a comfortable win. But either way, they should have enough juice on both sides of the ball to get a tough win. However, USC is desperate and won’t make it easy.

Penn State: 28
USC: 17

Matt Herb (Season Record – 5-0)

At Big Ten Media Days in July, James Franklin addressed the Nittany Lions’ big-game struggles, saying, “We’ve got to play our best when our best is needed most — in the biggest games, at the biggest moments.”

One of those moments has arrived. USC may be unranked. It may be coming off a lackluster loss at Minnesota. It may be a home underdog to fourth-ranked Penn State. Nevertheless, this figures to be the toughest test of the Lions’ season so far, and their best will absolutely be required.

USC has lost on the road to unranked Minnesota and overrated Michigan, but it also has a win over LSU, currently ranked 13th in the Associated Press poll, and it bullied Wisconsin in the second half of a 17-point win in Los Angeles. The Lions should assume they’re going to see that version of Lincoln Riley’s up-and-down team. And helping the Trojans’ cause is the potential return of tight end Lake McRee. Before getting hurt against Michigan on Sept. 21, McRee was leading USC with 12 catches for 134 yards. If he’s back in action, quarterback Miller Moss will have another formidable pass-catching thread at his disposal.

While USC’s tumble out of the rankings has taken some of the luster off of this matchup, it looks to be a potential thriller. In a closely matched game, I’ve got to go with the team that isn’t flying 2,300 miles and crossing three time zones.

USC: 27
Penn State: 21

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 5-0)

I can make a case for just about any outcome in this game. I do not trust USC’s offense to not turn the ball over in key moments. There is a real reason to be concerned about Penn State’s slow starts on offense. Head coach and offensive play caller Lincoln Riley is surely scheming up a quick-pass heavy game plan to try and neutralize the Lions’ pass rush. And while the second half has been tremendous for the Lions, it won’t be as easy to overcome a slow start this week on the road as it has been in previous weeks at home.

With all of that out of the way, Penn State has a clear edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The team prides itself on playing mean and physical in the trenches and as long as it brings that attitude with it to Los Angeles, it should have a major advantage up front. Will that be enough to win? It should be. But we’ve seen the Lions go on the road before in the Franklin era and not quite look the same as it does at home. Will this be another one of those instances? Our gut says no, but our head says it’s possible.

Don’t overlook USC just because of last weekend’s upset loss. The Trojans know they can’t afford any more slipups and should be playing with that kind of intensity right out of the gate. If Penn State can weather the early storm, it should have no problem scoring its sixth victory. If not, it could be a long day for the visitors. In the end, Franklin’s team takes a nail-biter that leaves fans relieved and also excited for what lies ahead.

Penn State: 27
USC: 23

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 5-0)

Penn State is 25-0 over the past three years against every regular season opponent not named Ohio State or Michigan. That’s a pretty good stat, one that probably should get more credit than it does.

But also, USC isn’t on the level of those two schools. The win over LSU to start the season distracted everyone from remembering that they lost five of their final six regular season games last year. Sure, it’s a new season, but this team is still showing many of the same issues that hurt them previously.

One thing I do believe is that this offense is the best passing attack that Penn State has seen this season and I also still have some questions about this secondary, especially without KJ Winston. Miller Moss looked great against LSU. If he plays like that Saturday, Penn State will be in a dogfight. However, he’s thrown at least one interception against each of USC’s Big Ten opponents and was also sacked four times against Michigan, which is the only defense they’ve faced that compares to Penn State.

If the Nittany Lions can keep pressure on Moss and Allar can continue to play smart football, I think it sets up well for Penn State to once against assert itself in the second half. Michigan and Minnesota ran all over this defense in recent weeks. Penn State won’t hit 290 yards rushing like the Wolverines, but Singleton and Allen should be able to grind out this win.

Penn State: 28
USC: 24