Penn State-Utah matchups: Who will have the edge when the Lions and Utes meet in the Rose Bowl?

Penn State battles Utah on Jan. 2 in the Rose Bowl. It will be the final traditional Big Ten/PAC-12 matchup before the College Football Playoff expands. It’s also the first meeting between the two programs. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Head coach Kyle Whittingham’s Utes won the PAC-12 title. But, some key pieces that helped Utah lift the trophy will not be in Pasadena. The Lions will be without two key starters, as well.

Who will have the edge when the sides take the field? We break down the matchups below.

When Penn State has the ball

Utah will be without star corner Clark Phillips III, who is off to the NFL Draft. The Lions, meanwhile, will be without leading receiver Parker Washington, who is also off to the pros but was of course already ruled out for the contest regardless due to injury. It will lead to a bigger role for freshman Sione Vakai, who played more down the stretch and was terrific in the conference title game. He’ll likely draw KeAndre Lambert-Smith in many matchups and may see Mitchell Tinsley at times, as well.

The battle between Mike Yurcich and Morgan Scalley will largely be decided in the trenches. That may sound cliche, but it’s true. The Utes lead the PAC-12 in sacks with 38, which was tied for ninth nationally. Penn State, meanwhile, allowed only 18 all season, which was inside the top 35 nationally and top five in the Big Ten. James Franklin said earlier this month that he was hopeful to have starting left tackle Olu Fashanu and right tackle Caedan Wallace back for this game. It is a must to have the former available and a luxury to have the latter, as Scalley will blitz relentlessly and often from Cover 0 looks. Penn State will need to account for star linebacker Mohamoud Diabate, as he is a game wrecker.

More: Penn State Rose Bowl Preview: Utah brings the heat with Cover 0

All told, this matchup comes down to whether or not Sean Clifford is protected well enough and if he can handle the blitz and find open receivers if so. Yurcich would be wise to get the tight ends involved early and often as primary pass catching options, even if it means not leaving them in to help chip block, because opportunities will be open over the middle. The running backs must be good in protection. Getting them going early would help matters, as well.

On paper, the Penn State offense versus the Utah defense looks fairly even. In terms of how it will play out, though, we give a slight edge to the Utes. Clifford and co., have every reason to make this pick look wrong, and that’s especially so if Fashanu plays. But, if he doesn’t or is not 100 percent, Utah’s pressure packages could be too much for the Lions to overcome in the end.

EDGE: UTAH

When the Lions are on defense

Opt outs are an issue in this battle, as well. Leading Utah receiver Dalton Kincaid is off to the pros. So, too, is top rusher Tavion Thomas, though the Utes attack didn’t miss a beat down the stretch when Ja’Quinden Jackson took over. Penn State, of course, will be without lead corner Joey Porter Jr., who already declared for the NFL Draft.

We mentioned the matchup in the trenches above. It applies to this rundown, as well. Utah has surrendered only nine sacks this season and owns one of the top offensive lines in college football per Football Outsiders. Penn State, on the other hand, led the Big Ten in sacks with 36. We’ll be watching to see if Lions defensive coordinator Manny Diaz schemes up any unique ways to use freshman phenom and linebacker Abdul Carter as a blitzer while also dialing up the pressure from the secondary. But, ultimately, this will come down to how many one-on-one matchups the Lions’ front four can win on their own.

Utah has a quarterback who will generate NFL Draft buzz in 2023 with Cam Rising. However, much of his damage comes after the PAC-12 side’s top-10 rushing offense wears a defense down and/or sets it up for play action. The Utes were one of the best third down teams in the country during the regular season. Their run game can be thanked for that. However, Penn State has one of the best statistical rush defenses in the country, has all key parts available personnel-wise, and was also very good on third down.

Andy Ludwig versus Manny Diaz figures to be a fascinating matchup. We give the Lions a small nod here. If they can stop the run, which on paper it appears they can, and generate pressure in exotic ways, then it will force Utah to be off schedule, which is when Rising will have to outperform a very good Penn State secondary, even without Porter Jr.

EDGE: Penn State

Final word

These teams are separated by a field goal, according to oddsmakers. After reviewing the matchups, it’s not hard to see why. Both sides earned their 10 wins to date and have ways to exploit the other on paper. But, the data and eye test also suggest each has a match for the other’s strengths. It figures to be a fascinating contest, and whoever wins the trenches will come out ont op.