Rose Bowl Predictions: Can Penn State finish the season with a signature win?

Another season has come and gone Penn State fans. The Nittany Lions finished with double-digit wins following two subpar seasons, but with losses to Ohio State and Michigan, there’s still plenty to prove in Monday’s Rose Bowl.

James Franklin has led the Lions to three New Year’s Six Bowl games since taking over the program. He’s 2-1 in those games, defeating Washington in the 2017 Fiesta Bowl and Memphis in the 2019 Cotton Bowl. The loss came against USC in 2016. Penn State fans don’t need to be reminded of how that one ended.

It’s rare that the Nittany Lions face a team for the first time these days, but that’s what we’ll get Monday, as Utah and Penn State have never played each other. Kyle Whittingham’s team won the Pac-12 for the second straight season. After losing to Ohio State in last year’s Rose Bowl, the Utes will also be looking to make a statement.

So, will the Nittany Lions get their signature win? Our staff gives their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season: 12-0)

Two inconsistent offenses will match up against defenses that helped carry their respective teams into the Rose Bowl on Monday. That Utah and Penn State will be without some of their top offensive playmakers, the Nittany Lions missing Parker Washington while the Utes will be without Dalton Kincaid, stacks the deck even more toward those defenses.

Picking a game that otherwise appears to be fairly even usually comes down to the stars that tend to come out under lights of this magnitude. Utah will demand a stellar performance from Cam Rising while the Nittany Lions need Sean Clifford to be at his best. If everything else is nearly equal, I’ll lean on Nick Singleton as most likely to produce some of the game-breaking big plays that defined his debut with the Nittany Lions.

Penn State: 27

Utah: 23

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 12-0)

Picking this game has been one of the season’s most frustrating and least clear-cut evaluations. On the one hand, Penn State has many singularly talented football players on both sides of the ball that could individually change the game on Monday. Nick Singleton, Mitchell Tinsley, Abdul Carter, Kalen King, Tig Brown, Curtis Jacobs, Chop Robinson, and Adisa Isaac would be the best football players at their positions on the Utah roster. If Olu Fashanu plays, add him to the list.

On the other hand, Utah isn’t far off the overall talent level, and they play with a singular purpose bred from generations of good coaching at the same institution. This isn’t to say that Utah’s coaching is far superior to Penn State’s, but like Iowa, they have a singular, institutional focus to what they do. That focus and clarity of objective has taken them to heights that Penn State hasn’t been to recently. Utah has more signature wins in the last three years than Penn State has.

But unlike Iowa, and the biggest reason for those signature wins, is they have the better quarterback. I’ve compared Cam Rising to Sean Clifford as equals for most of the lead-up to this game. But watching more of Rising has shown that he’s a much better player and has more poise, decision-making skills, and execution under pressure.

When everything is equal, the easy cop-out is to lean on cliches like “signature wins” and to point to the quarterback position. So, with very little conviction, I’m picking Utah to win in an incredibly entertaining game.

Utah: 31

Penn State: 30

Sean Fitz (Season: 12-0)

Penn State’s last trip to Pasadena was an entertaining one and I’m hopeful that we see a repeat on Monday. Utah is a tough, well-coached football team with a quarterback in Cam Rising that can make things happen. The Nittany Lions need to keep Rising contained and keep the Utes off schedule in the process. Utah is great at keeping Rising upright, so this game will be more about pressure than sacks. The good news for the Nittany Lions in that regard is that Rising’s top safety valve, tight end Dalton Kincaid, won’t be playing due to injury. That should change some things for Rising.

Offensively, Penn State will try to make it happen without Parker Washington once again. Over the last few games without Washington, the Nittany Lions struggled to find a rhythm in the passing game. Can KeAndre Lambert-Smith parlay a big performance in the season finale into a big Rose Bowl showing? Penn State sure hopes so. In Sean Clifford’s last game, look for him to lean heavily on his pair of young running backs and a terrific stable of tight ends.

Heres hoping for a fun one.

Penn State: 38

Utah: 35

Matt Herb (Season: 12-0)

Utah came up short in its last big intersectional game, falling to Florida 29-26 in Gainesville. But that was on opening day, and since then the Utes have given Oregon all it could handle in Eugene while giving USC more than it could handle — on two occasions.

I think the Utah team that pushed the Trojans around for three quarters in the Pac-12 title game is the team that Penn State is going to see in the Rose Bowl. The Utes are physically tough on both sides of the ball, and when you combine those traits with a playmaking quarterback, you’ve got a pretty good chance to have success.

Penn State likewise finished strong, and the Rose Bowl will be an interesting test to see if that progress carries over into a battle with a top-10 opponent.

Given the momentum that both teams are carrying into their visit to Pasadena, this game feels like a toss-up. Someone is going to leave with a W, though, and I’ve got to give the edge to the Utes. They’ve proven they can handle a playoff-caliber opponent, while Penn State has yet to take that step.

Utah: 34

Penn State: 31

Greg Pickel (Season: 11-1)

The point spread in this game is spot on. Penn State and Utah both won 10 games this year. The Utes are slightly disadvantaged by two key opt outs, but they will be at mostly full strength for this game, as will the Lions. This contest will be won or lost in the trenches, as both teams have a nose for the quarterback and also are good at keeping their passer upright.

Neither side lacks motivation, and this has all the makings of a close contest that comes down to who blinks first, either via a costly turnover or a key mistake. But, neither team has made many this year, which is why it figures to be a one-score game or less entering the fourth quarter. Utah will make one more play than the Lions, though, and win “The Grandaddy of Them All.”

Utah: 27

Penn State: 24

Ryan Snyder (Season 11-1)

Penn State and Utah both come into Monday’s Rose Bowl with plenty of motivation. The Nittany Lions will be missing out on CB Joey Porter Jr. and WR Parker Washington, while the Utes will also be missing TE Dalton Kincaide and CB Clark Phillips. All four are important players, but it’s a good sign for everyone that this game won’t feature many opt outs.

Utah is a pretty physical team, so I do wonder how well Penn State will be able to run the ball. The Nittany Lions are 101st nationally in rushing power success rate. That’s no secret to fans. They’ve struggled to pick up yards when they need to get a push. The Utes also rank among the top five in defensive power success rate. That tells me that the Utah defensive line could give the Lions problems.

In the passing game, the Nittany Lion secondary will limit Utah’s big plays. Cam Rising has been known to force passes, too, so I think Penn State has an edge there. The Utes also rank in the 90s nationally in generating a pass rush. That should allow Sean Clifford time to find his receivers.

I’ll side with the Lions to get the job done, but I could see this going either way.

Penn State: 28

Utah: 24