Penn State vs. Bowling Green Predictions: Lions look to build on early momentum in home opener

Penn State is only one game into its season, but if you’re a fan of the Nittany Lions, it’s hard not to be excited following last weekend’s 34-12 win over West Virginia. Sure, there’s plenty that they can improve on, but both the offense and the defense showed they were ready for the moment, and that’s not always the case in college football. Just ask Florida State fans.

Now, Penn State should be a heavy favorite in all four of its upcoming home games. That stretch begins this weekend against a Bowling Green squad that started its season with a 41-17 win over Fordham last Saturday.

As you would expect, the Nittany Lions have never lost to the Falcons, but they’ve also only played twice, the most recent of which was in 1998. Penn State won that game 48-3, and fans will expect a similar outcome on Saturday. Sportsbooks currently list the spread at 34.5 points.

So, how does our staff see this one playing out? Check out our predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season 1-0)

The Nittany Lions’ matchup on Saturday follows a familiar script to the year prior. That is, coming out of an important season-opening win against West Virginia, the impetus shifts for the program. Against an outmatched Bowling Green team that will struggle in the trenches, Penn State has to maximize what should be a comfortable win.

Like the Delaware game we saw a season ago, that should mean points are plentiful and the diversity of the Nittany Lions’ offense will be a major point of emphasis. Drew Allar might not play the entirety of the first half if Penn State can build and sustain an early lead, but there is plenty of run available for players who otherwise might not see so many snaps again this year as they do on Saturday.

Considering the challenges Penn State’s defense will present to the Falcons, particularly true of a unit that likes to run against a run-stopping Nittany Lion side, the sign of a good afternoon for the hosts on Saturday will largely revolve around spreading the wealth. And in every sense, I expect it to be.

Penn State: 63
Bowling Green: 7

Sean Fitz (Season 1-0)

Penn State looked pretty good in week one. Still, there’s always room for improvement. The next couple of weeks on the schedule should be a nice balance of finding what works with the two-deep and getting some younger guys reps. Kaden Saunders, Liam Clifford and Khalil Dinkins were three main pieces of the offense that were either limited or out last week. Does it make sense to keep them limited to get to the bye week for more time? 

Bowling Green had a good start to its season against Fordham, but it’s a whole different animal heading into Beaver Stadium. The Falcons should struggle to move the football against the team speed of the Nittany Lions’ defense, which could lead to turning the ball over. Penn State got three takeaways last weekend in Morgantown. 

We should see more offensive progress, particularly in the running game. Kaytron Allen found it tough to get going against West Virginia, but he should have more room to work against the Falcons on Saturday. I expect him to find the end zone at least once. 

There are still a few areas that need to be ironed out. Field goal kicking is still a big question mark with Sander Sahaydak missing his first attempt of the year late in the game last week. More efficiency in the return game would be welcomed as well. 

Penn State: 49
Bowling Green: 10

Thomas Frank Carr (Season 1-0)

Penn State’s defense played smothering man coverage and shut down West Virginia’s prolific run offense last week. They used superior line of scrimmage play and numbers in the box to take quarterback Garrett Greene’s option away and force the ball downfield in passing situations.

On offense, Andy Kotelnicki’s schematic brilliance was on full display throughout the game. He used the motions, shifts, and formational imbalance we discussed this offseason to manipulate the West Virginia defense into compromised situations, and Penn State’s talent took full advantage with over 300 yards of explosive plays.

I don’t see any of that changing this week.

Penn State: 51
Bowling Green: 10

Matt Herb (Season 1-0)

A year ago, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy played his worst game of the season against Bowling Green. The future Big Ten Quarterback of the Year threw three interceptions, including two in the first half. The Falcons used those picks to keep things interesting in Ann Arbor until the third quarter — and that was with their own top quarterback, Connor Bazelak, missing due to an injury.

Bowling Green is the kind of opponent that could give Penn State some problems if the Nittany Lions are sloppy or overconfident coming off their impressive showing last week at West Virginia. Bazelak spent three years in the SEC and one in the Big Ten and won’t be fazed by the hostile environment at Beaver Stadium.

That said, I can’t picture Penn State coming out flat in its home opener. What’s more, if Drew Allar has shown anything in his tenure as the Nittany Lions’ starting quarterback, it’s that he’s not going to make the kind of careless mistakes that breathe life into an opponent’s upset bid.

Penn State: 42
Bowling Green: 13

Greg Pickel (Season 1-0)

Penn State is a deserving five touchdown favorite for this contest. Bowling Green will compete with many teams in the MAC. But, it will be outclassed on this trip to Beaver Stadium. Falcons quarterback Connor Bazalak played for Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen at Indiana. So, the Nittany Lions will have a strong game plan for him. And, we know Andy Kotelnicki will cook up plenty of creative things on offense. Special teams is the only area the road team may have an edge. And, those will hardly matter in this game, which Penn State will lead throughout.

Penn State: 50
Bowling Green: 7

Ryan Snyder (Season 1-0)

Bowling Green jumped on Fordham early last week, racing to a 27-0 lead early in the second quarter, but they also played their starters for the majority of that game. Sure, they left their foot off the gas, but it is interesting to me that Fordham still totaled more than 400 yards of offense, including 182 yards rushing.

Against a Penn State squad that has size and speed advantages at every position, I think it may end up being a long day for Bowling Green’s defensive front seven. I also expect offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to build off the concepts his unit showed last week. There’s no reason to open up the playbook for future Big Ten opponents to scout. That should result in plenty of carries for Penn State’s running backs.

I also expect Penn State’s backups on defense to perform well in the second half. That should lead to the Nittany Lions covering the spread.

Penn State: 48
Bowling Green: 10