Penn State vs. Ohio State Predictions: What should fans expect against the Buckeyes?

The week Penn State fans have been waiting for has finally arrived. Following 6-0 starts for both the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes, head coach James Franklin and his team will travel to Columbus on Saturday for one of the biggest games of the entire college football season. With Penn State ranked No. 6 in the Coaches Poll and No. 7 in the AP Poll, both teams have College Football Playoff aspirations.

Ohio State comes into the game ranked higher at No. 3 in both polls, but the Buckeyes haven’t been quite as dominant as they have in previous years. Still, with Penn State only winning in Columbus twice since joining the Big Ten, a win would represent a massive moment in Franklin’s tenure.

Overall, the Buckeyes are 22-8 against Penn State since that inaugural Big Ten season in 1993. Their current win streak sits at six games, which is the longest we’ve ever seen between the two schools.

So, how will this weekend’s game play out? Our staff offers its predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season 6-0)

That Penn State’s visit to Ohio State this weekend, the Nittany Lions’ seventh game of their 2023 season, is the first prediction in which the outcome is in doubt speaks volumes about where the program has risen. It’s also somewhat of an indictment on the rest of the Big Ten, but that’s a conversation for another day.

In the meantime, is this the year Penn State gets over the mountain? 

I believe it is. And, that’s with the understanding that the Buckeyes are very much still a mountain within the conference and the national college football landscape. To beat this Ohio State team this season, the Nittany Lions will need to be ferocious defensively in the trenches and secure in their assignments. An offensive line that has been tested previously will have its hands full, and Penn State’s skill position players – and quarterback Drew Allar – must continue to play patient, responsible, complementary football.

This team is capable and ready to do that. And it’s capable of doing so at Ohio Stadium against this Ohio State team this year. In a game that could go either way, this isn’t a guarantee. The Buckeyes are still the Buckeyes, and they’ll be a tough out. But the opportunity is Penn State’s to seize, and this year, they likely will.

Penn State: 26
Ohio State: 23

Sean Fitz (Season: 6-0)

Penn State’s trips to the Horseshoe usually come with a standard formula. Most times, Ohio State has the superior roster in both depth and talent. This weekend, however, the two sides are as close as they’ve been in recent memory. Even when Penn State was on the verge of bringing one home in 2017, depth issues caught up with the Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes won with 19 fourth-quarter points. Penn State now has the depth, at least we think it does, to hang with the Buckeyes for four quarters.

The Nittany Lions also have a defense that will keep them in every game. While Penn State’s offense is scoring at an impressive clip this season, I’m not seeing a high-scoring affair in Columbus. Both quarterbacks are first-year starters and both defensive coordinators will be gunning to make either Drew Allar or Kyle McCord make rushed decisions. Turnovers are key, along with field position and penalties.

At the beginning of the year I had the Nittany Lions at 11-1 with this pegged as the loss. As the first half of the season unfolded, I started to believe that the Buckeyes were the better matchup for Penn State and that Michigan just may be better than everyone else. So I switched gears, as I believe the Nittany Lions have their best shot to win in Columbus in quite some time.

Penn State: 24
Ohio State: 21

Thomas Frank Carr (6-0)

For the first time, maybe ever under James Franklin, Penn State feels like the more talented team in this matchup. It’s not a clean sweep, nor are the Nitany Lions bulletproof heading into Columbus, but everything from the spread to the national conversation has this being a close game. 

Franklin’s new efficient, methodical machine will be put to the test on Saturday against a good Ohio State defense. The key matchup for Penn State’s offense will be to maintain that level of efficiency against the aggressive front six for the Buckeyes. If they can get quality chunks of yardage against a good defensive line and linebacker corps, Penn State’s passing game will find the open throws behind quarterback Drew Allar’s decision-making. While Allar’s accuracy hasn’t been pristine on the road, his ability to read the situation and avoid bad plays hasn’t wavered. Expect him to put out another sound effort on Saturday. 

Defensively, Penn State’s front four should go toe-to-toe with the Ohio State offensive line and have an advantage across the board. We’re always one gap away from a big play, but Penn State has been much better at assignment-sound football up front. The wildcard will be Marvin Harrison Jr.’s ability to take over a game. If Penn State can make him work for it all day long, they should be able to keep Ohio State’s offense in check. Unless we see a new level from Allar and Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, this has the makings of a low-scoring game. 

Penn State: 27
Ohio State: 24

Matt Herb (Season: 6-0)

Ohio State has looked beatable at times this year, but there’s a big difference between looking beatable and actually losing. When Notre Dame had them on the ropes in September, the Buckeyes responded. They trailed by four points with 1:26 to play but converted on third-and-10, fourth-and-7 and third-and-19 en route to a touchdown and a 17-14 victory. 

Penn State can surely empathize with the Irish. The Nittany Lions have held fourth-quarter leads in three of their past six games against Ohio State and lost them all. That’s what gives me pause going into this week’s game. The Buckeyes just don’t get rattled. If they need a play in the fourth quarter of a tough game, home or away, they usually find a way to make it.

Since 2018, the only Big Ten team that has beaten Ohio State has been Michigan. The Wolverines have worn down the Buckeyes at the line of scrimmage in each of the past two meetings and surged to double-digit leads in the second half of both games. Penn State isn’t equipped to follow Michigan’s template. It’s not going to wear out OSU’s defense, leaving it spent and vulnerable in the second half. The more likely scenario is that this will still be a competitive game in the fourth quarter and the winner will be whichever team is better able to execute on both offense and defense as the clock winds down and the pressure escalates. As it showed in South Bend earlier this year, Ohio State is built to handle those situations.

Ohio State: 28
Penn State: 20

Greg Pickel (Season: 6-0)

Penn State is as close to Ohio State talent-wise and schematically as it has ever been in the James Franklin era. You can make the case that the Lions’ defense as a whole is the scariest unit on the field. That has always been reserved for the Buckeyes’ offense. And, make no mistake, they are very talented, but they don’t have quite the amount of game-changing talent as they have in the past. Plus, injuries are a concern.

Penn State is receiving most of the early betting money. The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog as of this writing. Will they cover? This writer thinks so. Will they win? It feels like the best chance Franklin has had to lead his team into Columbus and leave it with a victory. But they’ve held leads against OSU before ultimately losing. A Penn State victory wouldn’t shock me, but I want to see it before I believe it.

Ohio State: 21
Penn State: 17

Ryan Snyder (Season: 6-0)

The amount of time I’ve spent thinking about this prediction may very well surpass the other six games combined. With Penn State essentially having back-to-back bye weeks, this game has been on my mind since the final whistle in Evanston against Northwestern. Franklin won’t admit it, but I would expect that Ohio State has had much of his staff’s attention as well over the past 19 days.

One thing that I believe is different this year is that Penn State may very well have the better quarterback for the first time in a long time. Kyle McCord is a good player, but I’m not sure he’s on the level of CJ Stroud, Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins and others. Drew Allar has been consistently making the right decisions all season and I don’t think the atmosphere will rattle him much. I think if you polled Ohio State fans, they’d take Allar today if they could.

I also think Penn State’s offensive and defensive lines match up the best they’ve had against Ohio State in probably over a decade. On defense, that should help the secondary, although I am intrigued with that matchup. Statistically, Penn State’s passing defense looks great on paper, but the quarterback and wide receivers they’ve faced heading into this game are nothing like Ohio State. Not even close. Will the fact that they haven’t been challenged much shock the system? I wonder.

Penn State is a very popular pick to cover this weekend, and why not? They’ve covered six of the past seven in this series. I think we see somewhat of a reverse playbook this week compared to last year, with the Buckeyes coming out early and hitting a few big plays. However, Manny Diaz’s defense will force a turnover or two in the second half to give Penn State life. If it goes down to the wire, I have faith in Allar making the right decisions to put the Lions into field goal range.

Penn State: 23
Ohio State: 21