Penn State vs. UMass Predictions: What should fans expect against the Minutemen?

It’s not often that Penn State finishes its nonconference slate in the middle of October. You have to go back to 2014, when the Nittany Lions hosted Temple in November, to find the last time they played a nonconference team this late – or in that case, much later – in the season. This weekend’s game was actually supposed to be played on Nov. 11, but when the Big Ten updated its conference schedule following the pandemic, Penn State moved the game to Oct. 14.

Speaking of 2014, that was the last and only time these two schools played each other in football. The result went as expected, with Penn State winning 48-7. UMass has shown signs of improvement under second-year head coach Dom Brown, but with the Nittany Lions favored by 42.5 points at sportsbooks, an upset isn’t expected.

So, what should fans expect this Saturday? Our staff gives their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season 5-0)

The result of this game for Penn State might not be in question on Saturday afternoon. But, with Ohio State on deck, this is a valuable opportunity for the Nittany Lions that the program is determined not to squander.

Exactly how that value takes shape is in the eye of the beholder, though. Is it by establishing an explosive passing game against the No. 128-ranked passing defense in college football? What about the Nittany Lion defense being tested by “the most explosive” offense it has faced thus far? Certainly, both of those elements will be tests to overcome beyond the final score. Count Penn State running backs finding that home run feeling missing since last season, and staying healthy, chief among them, too.

Given the offensive ineptitude of every opponent Penn State has faced to date, even the resemblance of a threat of proficiency should be valued by the Nittany Lion defense. And, at minimum, establishing the good vibes that have been lacking offensively this season will be a priority.

Penn State: 63
UMass: 6

Sean Fitz (Season: 5-0)

The Portal hasn’t fixed Massachusetts football, but it has made the Minutemen more competitive in a short period of time. Now, that won’t change the outcome on Saturday as they will be overmatched by Penn State, but it’s worth bringing up that UMass does have some athletes on the roster. It’s funny to say this about a Don Brown-coached team, but the Minutemen are actually more proficient on offense. Yes, they’re 1-6, but they’ve put up over 20 points in five of their seven games so far. That’s progress for a team that did it just three times all last season.

Still, the matchups heavily favor Penn State, who will use this week as a tuneup for its trip to Columbus next weekend. I, for one, am happy that we haven’t been battered with James Franklin’s record coming out of byes in advance of this matchup. The Nittany Lions’ offense needs to get its timing down in the run game and good things will come. The catch, of course, is that Penn State fans won’t take anything away from positives from the offense because of the opponent. Just score points, stay upright and get on to Columbus.

Penn State: 52
UMass: 10

Thomas Frank Carr (5-0)

Call me an optimist. Even when examining the facts and trying to make sense of the matchups on film, I still lean to the positive outcomes for Penn State’s offense. The key players are too talented not to figure things out.

So with that in mind, Penn State will finally rack up some explosive runs and passes against UMass on Saturday. Don Brown isn’t running man coverage exclusively anymore, like he did at Michigan, but his defense at UMass still leans on that principle. The team also runs a healthy amount of two-high coverages that expose the middle of the field.

So, despite the lack of chunk plays against Northwestern, this should be a game where the offense can get some feel-good vibes. It’s also a good matchup to get Theo Johnson or Tyler Warren involved going downfield. The addition of Trey Wallace (if healthy) should bring about the necessary synergy to get this group going.

Oh yeah, and the defense should dominate. There’s no reason, despite James Franklin’s praise of the skill players of UMass, that they should score at most ten points during the competitive portion of the game.

Penn State: 59
UMass: 10

Matt Herb (Season: 5-0)

Massachusetts has 25 players on its roster who transferred in from Power Five schools. There are eight players from Arizona alone, which makes sense since Don Brown was the Wildcats’ defensive coordinator before taking over as head coach of the Minutemen in 2022.

The portal has helped some programs improve more quickly than they otherwise would have, but the talent infusion hasn’t produced wins yet at UMass. The Minutemen have started out 1-6, with their only victory coming on opening day against New Mexico State. They’ve only played one Power Five opponent so far, and that game — a 59-14 loss at Auburn in Week 2 — probably gives us an idea of what to expect on Saturday in Beaver Stadium. If the weather is bad, it’ll hold the scoring down a bit, but not enough to keep Penn State from rolling.

Penn State: 45
UMass: 10

Greg Pickel (Season: 5-0)

Penn State covered easily against nonconference foe Delaware. It beat the number against West Virginia by just a few points. Neither fact truly tells us a whole lot about how this game will play out. But, the Lions are again a double-digit favorite for the sixth consecutive game in 2023. Will they cover again? They’re not just a perfect 5-0 on the field, of course. They are also unbeaten against the number.

UMass comes to town off a cover against Toledo. It has lost six straight on the field but is 3-4 in the oddsmakers world. It has yet to see anyone quite like Penn State, though. And, the Lions had a week to both fix issues and prep for the Minutemen. They undoubtedly spent more time doing the former. But, that won’t matter on game day. Neither will a rainy forecast. UMass will struggle to move the ball, allowing Penn State to capitalize on strong field position. And, it will start off October with a sizable victory.

Penn State: 59
UMass: 3

Ryan Snyder (Season: 5-0)

It’s not really a matter of if Penn State should win this weekend, but more so by how much. You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time UMass won more than one game a season. This year, they got that win in their opening game against New Mexico State, beating the Aggies 41-30 in Week 0.

I do think UMass is headed in the right direction though. Close losses to Eastern Michigan and New Mexico in September could’ve easily been wins, but this is a program that simply doesn’t have the athletes to stick with Penn State.

When you consider that Auburn put up 59 points against UMass but has just 44 points combined in its three games against Power Five opponents, Penn State shouldn’t have many issues putting up points. Their offense is substantially better than what we’ve seen at Auburn. However, the one thing that’s holding me back a bit is the weather. As of now, it’s not only supposed to rain, but it may be quite heavy at times.

Add in a slow start off the bye week and it has the makings of being a bit sloppy at times. The Nittany Lions will win easily, but if you’re looking at the spread (42.5) or the over/under (56.5), it’s probably best to sit this one out. I’ll go with the score that sportsbooks are predicting.

Penn State: 48
UMass: 7