Penn State vs. West Virginia Predictions: Lions look to make a statement in season opener

Penn State’s much anticipated 2024 football season has finally arrived. For the fifth straight year, the Nittany Lions won’t have a Group of Five or smaller program to warm up against either, as Penn State will finish up a home-and-home series against West Virginia on Saturday with a trip to Morgantown.

Ranked No. 8 nationally in the preseason Associated Press Poll, nothing short of a College Football Playoff berth will do this season. However, the Mountaineers won’t be an easy test.

After losing 38-15 at Penn State last season, West Virginia won eight of its final 11 regular season games. The Mountaineers ultimately finished 9-4 after defeating North Carolina 30-10 in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

All-time, Penn State holds a commanding lead in this series, winning 49 of the 60 meetings between the two programs. However, this is the first time the Lions will play in Morgantown since 1992.

How will Saturday’s season opener play out? Our staff gives their predictions below.

Nate Bauer

The first game of the season is always difficult to project in college football. How many people picked Georgia Tech to topple Florida State in Ireland on Saturday? And even if they did, were they thinking it’d be a 24-21 game?

Yes, there are elements of the 2023 matchup between Penn State and West Virginia that can be gleaned and carried over into this year. The Nittany Lions and Mountaineers carry over many of the same players from a game that was 31-7 with seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.

The reality is, outside of the venue, there haven’t been enough changes within either program to deviate that strongly from the same result. How that looks could be different. Maybe Penn State struggles to find a groove offensively out of the gates under Andy Kotelnicki, particularly in that environment. And maybe West Virginia can strike on a few plays that just missed a year ago.

Considering the build-up to this for both programs, I think this will be a fairly well-executed performance, particularly for a season opener. How that exactly takes shape, with weather likely to play a factor in willingness for aggressiveness in playcalling on either side, remains to be seen. But I expect the result to follow a similar trajectory to last year’s tilt.

Penn State: 27
West Virginia: 17

Sean Fitz

The line has moved in this one over the last few weeks in favor of the hosts. I’m not exactly sure what’s changed, though. I still think the Nittany Lions are the better team on paper and have an advantage up front on both sides of the ball. I do think the Nittany Lions will be conservative early as they feel out how Kotelnicki’s offense will work against a live defense with its personnel, but Penn State’s defense should put them in a pretty good spot to start.

Garrett Greene provides one of the better threats the Nittany Lions will see all season. He throws well on the run, which is good for the Mountaineers because it seems like that may be where we see him the most.

Game Preview: Penn State rushers have talent, experience the over WVU linebackers

Last year he made some great reads to tuck and go and keep the offense on the field. Penn State’s pass rush can’t get too far up the field or he will take off and make them pay. I also think tight end Kole Taylor is going to have a bunch of targets on Saturday.

I’ve seen recent commentary that last year’s contest was closer than the score indicated. I must have watched a different game. While the atmosphere will be decidedly different, Penn State’s defense should be able to dictate how this thing goes on Saturday.

Penn State: 34
West Virginia: 17

Thomas Frank Carr

Penn State’s biggest challenge comes along the offensive line this upcoming weekend. West Virginia returns two starters and two key depth players in its front seven. If they can’t get the ground game going with three first-time starters on the offensive line, this becomes a ball game. Much of Kotelnicki’s offense flows from the threat of the run, and if Penn State can crack through the Mountaineer’s front, the young and transfer-heavy back seven could crack the way they did in Happy Valley last year.

Yes, Garrett Greene is a very good quarterback and can change the game in an instant, but Penn State’s defense is loaded with elite talent that can, at the very least, keep a lid on the Mountaineers offense. While they return five experienced linemen, this group is less talented than the one that helped keep West Virginia in the game last year.

The weather is also a wildcard here. Penn State fans have seen what extended weather delays can do to even a playing field between two teams. However, the Nittany Lions are the more talented squad. As long as they keep their cool, they should get a win.

Penn State: 31
West Virginia: 21

Matt Herb

Part of the fun of a season opener like this one, in which Penn State will venture into a hostile environment to face a competitive Power Four opponent, is that almost anything seems possible. Could PSU have its hands full in Morgantown? Absolutely. Could it sprint to a comfortable victory? Can’t rule that out, either.

Adding to the mystery this year is the presence of three new coordinators at PSU, all of whom have been working throughout the offseason to fill critical vacancies. Given all the changes and the possibility that some of last year’s offensive shortcomings might linger in the 2024 campaign, I wouldn’t be surprised to see West Virginia pull off a season-opening upset. A more likely scenario, though, is that Penn State finds a way to get the job done, even if that means relying on what looks to be a very formidable defense to keep the Mountaineers in check.

Penn State: 24
West Virginia: 20

Greg Pickel

Penn State is favored to beat West Virginia. That is and has been the case since oddsmakers assigned a point spread to the contest in June. However, a line that once was as high as 12.5 points is creeping close to a touchdown ahead of kickoff. I’m not terribly sure why.

The Mountaineers welcoming the Nittany Lions and their three new coordinators to town is surely part of it. Potential precipitation probably is, too. But, nothing has changed so dramatically over the last few months to make this writer believe that the Nittany Lions won’t win by double digits. They have a talent edge all over except for potentially at placekicker. The hosts might do enough to hang around, but winning, or even covering the spread, is not in the cards.

Penn State: 34
West Virginia: 21

Ryan Snyder

There’s no shortage of fun storylines for this year’s season opener, but the one that will have my attention the most has to be Kotelnicki’s impact on Penn State’s offense. I can point back to this stat or that stat from last season, or even Kansas’ performance against the Mountaineers in 2022. But let’s be honest: this is college football. Previous outcomes only matter so much.

But I also believe the key matchup that’ll have the biggest impact on the result is West Virginia’s offensive line against Penn State’s defensive line. The Mountaineers should have one of the better units in the Big 12 this year. The Nittany Lions have plenty of depth on the other side of the ball, so how that matchup plays out is where I think fans should focus the most. Edge rushers Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton will have an impact. In my eyes, this game will likely come down to Penn State’s interior defensive line controlling the line of scrimmage and not allowing running back Jahiem White room to run and quarterback Garrett Greene time to read the field.

Link: What is Penn State’s plan for Andrew Rappleyea and Luke Reynolds?

It’s hard to know what Penn State’s offense will look like Saturday, but Kotelnicki excels at putting his playmakers in position to do what they do best. We know running back Nick Singleton has the ability to be a game-breaker, while tight end Tyler Warren is a major weapon inside the red zone. Watch those two the closest. Singleton is due for a bounce-back season after a sophomore year that didn’t reach the expectations most expected.

Like so many season openers, it won’t always be pretty, but I do think Penn State has an edge at most defensive positions. The offense will show its potential at times, but don’t get worked up if it’s not perfect. I’ll take the Nittany Lions to win, but this will be a game in the fourth quarter.

Penn State: 31
West Virginia: 24