Penn State-Washington Matchups: Who will have the edge in White Out battle?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State meets Washington on Saturday during the regular season for the first time since 1921. It also marks the first matchup between the schools as Big Ten brethren. The two sides played in the 2017 Fiesta Bowl, but plenty has changed since then. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on Peacock. The Nittany Lions (7-1) are 13.5-point favorites over the Huskies (5-4).

“I think playing the night game is … going to be a fantastic experience,” Washington coach Jedd Fisch said on Monday. “You’ve got to love football. It’s Saturday night and the White Out, and you know, it’s going to be 110, 111,000 [people]. It’s going to be an amazing atmosphere, right? There’s no question about it. And I think that it’s going to be a blast for our guys. You know, you’ve got to deal with the initial wave of just the energy and momentum, as do people when they come and play us.

“We’ve been a lot better since the Washington State game when it comes to our ability to communicate. And you’re in the Big Ten man, four games, three on the East Coast and one in the Central Time Zone. So it’s certainly been a lot of travel, a new experience, and new opponents. And our guys are excited about. it.”

We get you one step closer to game day with a look at the matchups below.

When Penn State is on offense

The Huskies’ defense, in some ways similar to the Penn State offense of late, has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde so far this year. They have the nation’s No. 10 overall defense, but their pass defense (No. 2, per CFBStats) is far superior to their rush defense (No. 70). In each loss this year, Washington has given up more yards on the ground than through the air. That should play right into the Nittany Lions’ hands, even if Nicholas Singleton still does not seem like he is 100 percent and movement up front was an issue last week. If Andy Kotelnicki can get the ground game back on track, the home team’s offense should be able to put up more than enough points to win.

It should be noted, though, that the Huskies’ defense is fine in the red zone, which is an issue for this Penn State offense. So, that could skew things on game day. The Lions will also have an advantage with their third-down offense compared to the visitors’ third-down defense, providing they can stay on schedule and not deal with too many third-and-longs.

Linebacker Carson Bruener is the heart and soul of the UW defense. He is among the Big Ten’s tackle leaders and will be active in the front seven. Defensive backs Thaddeus Dixon and Jordan Shaw, meanwhile, are among the conference leaders in passes defended with eight and six, respectively.

All told, this is probably a tougher matchup, at least on paper, than we expected it to be when looking ahead to this game back in the summer. But the fact remains that Penn State has more talent, and it has fared very well when having that in other games this season.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

Regardless of which stats or metrics you use, there is no question that the bigger advantage in this game should be the Penn State defense against the Washington offense. The Huskies can move the ball with first-year starting quarterback Will Rogers leading the charge, but they are simply not overpowering. They are much better through the air than on the ground, which will be a problem against the Lions’ extremely talented secondary. Rogers is completing 71.1 percent of his passes for 2,284 yards and sports a 13-to-4 touchdown-interception ratio. Star receiver Denzel Boston leads the Big Ten with nine touchdown receptions, and running back Jonah Coleman is fourth in the conference in total yards (889) and yards per carry (6.3).

All told, the Huskies do have some interesting pieces. But, on aggregate, they don’t score enough (they rank No. 100 in scoring offense) and aren’t explosive enough for us to foresee them causing a bevy of issues for the Nittany Lions’ defense. They’re also allowing two sacks a game, and don’t have the best offensive line in the world.

A regular performance from Tom Allen’s unit should get the job done here.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Kicker Grady Gross’ 13-for-20 mark on field goals is among the worst in the conference and country. It’s part of the reason why Washington does not score as many points as it probably should.

—Keith Reynolds is averaging 23.5 yards per kick return, which will make it important for Gabe Nwosu to boom touchbacks.

–The under looks ripe for the picking in this game. Neither side is overly explosive on offense. And both defenses grade out well when it comes to not allowing many big plays.

Final word on Penn State-Washignton

After diving deeper on this game, the spread seems fair. Penn State should be about two touchdowns, at least, better than the Huskies. Don’t count out Jedd Fisch to eventually make Washington a competitive team in the Big Ten. Right now, though, the Huskies are still dealing with too much transition in Year 1, which is part of the reason they have the losses they do. There is no reason the Lions shouldn’t win this year’s White Out game matchup handily.