Penn State-Washington Predictions: How will the Nittany Lions bounce back?

It’s been a tough couple of days for Penn State head coach James Franklin and his team, but there’s no time to sit around and second-guess Saturday’s loss to Ohio State. This week, the Nittany Lions are set to host their third and final West Coast team on the schedule, as Washington comes to Beaver Stadium for the first time ever for the annual White Out game.

After last year’s runner-up finish in the national championship game, the Huskies haven’t reached the same heights under new head coach Jedd Fisch, but they do have two notable wins over Michigan and USC. At 5-4 overall and 3-3 in the conference, the Huskies have to get another win to reach a bowl game. They also have just two games left after Penn State: home vs. UCLA and away at No. 1 Oregon.

Following their first loss of the season, the Nittany Lions have much more on the line. Penn State still controls its own destiny to make the College Football Playoff, but they also don’t have some of the quality wins that others have on their resume. That makes it all the more important that they don’t slip up in any of their four remaining games. That begins Saturday night at home in what should be a fun atmosphere.

So, how will Saturday’s game play out? Our staff offers up their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 7-1)

As get-right games go, Penn State could certainly ask for an easier test than Washington on Saturday night. The Nittany Lions can’t complain too much, though, on the back of their 20-13 letdown loss to Ohio State last weekend.

Set to host the Huskies for an 8 p.m. White Out kickoff at Beaver Stadium, the travel component and support are both in the Nittany Lions’ favor. Hardly insignificant, the hurdle of moving past the disappointment of the loss to the Buckeyes and getting on with the business of maintaining a very real shot at the expanded College Football Playoff by winning its next four games, Penn State begins that quest with a challenge.

Against a Washington team that climbed to 5-4 on the season with its win against Southern Cal last weekend, though, Penn State has some areas to like.

The first is that, while the Huskies feature a standout performer in running back Jonah Coleman, the Nittany Lions’ defense has maintained its proficiency as a run-stopper. They’ll need to guard against explosive runs, which has been one of Coleman’s strengths with 32 carries of 10 or more yards this season. However, Washington’s scoring output this season should not scare Penn State and its ability to keep points and productive possessions to a minimum.

Penn State’s offensive struggles aren’t going to fix themselves from the past two months by Saturday night. Meeting certain explosive benchmarks, the Nittany Lions’ middle-of-the-pack place for points will almost assuredly demand another slog. Unlike the one the program needed to dust itself off from last weekend, though, this is a matchup that typical output should be enough to secure a win for the hosts.

Penn State: 27
Washington: 13

Sean Fitz (Season Record – 8-0)

Penn State’s offense won’t see another defense like Ohio State’s for a while, but that doesn’t mean that it will necessarily roll over a Washington team that is coming in off a big win at home over USC. The issue that Jedd Fisch’s team has had this year, however, is winning on the road. A night game in Happy Valley shouldn’t be much of a respite. The Huskies are 0-4 on the road this season, which includes losses at Washington State and Rutgers.

Washington’s defensive stats seem nice, but the Huskies also gave up 40 points at Iowa. That’s as eye-opening as any stat in college football. But to me, the story isn’t as much about Washington as it is about Penn State. The Nittany Lions have a clear path ahead of them if they can take care of business. After falling flat against Ohio State, a bit of the shine is off Andy Kotelnicki’s offense. Penn State needs to get right for the last month of the season. It’s going to start with the running game. The Huskies have the No. 70 rush defense in the country. This, to me, seems a lot like the UCLA matchup from early October. Penn State should have every opportunity to dictate the game, but at the end of the day, the Nittany Lions need points.

It’s gut-check time for the No. 6 team in the country. I’m not convinced that Penn State bounces all the way back this weekend, but I think the Nittany Lions do enough to get the win.

Penn State: 27
Washington: 16

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 7-1)

Penn State is coming off a tough loss against Ohio State, which was amplified by the fact that it was hard to watch. The offense scored six points, and the team failed to capitalize on the 10-point lead it got to start the game, as well as four red zone trips that produced scoring opportunities.

However, Washington is a different opponent than Ohio State. Yes, the statistics are impressive, but aside from Indiana’s offense, it’s been a weak lineup of quarterbacks and firepower. The Washington defense deploys NFL-like tactics and schemes that are obviously linked to the New England Patriots defenses.

It’s a sound scheme, but it’s one that quarterback Drew Allar and his teammates should be able to battle based on its clearer set of coverages and traditional alignments. Most importantly, Washington lacks a pass rush that should challenge Penn State.

The defense will make the ground game work for it, with a diverse set of fronts and body types to keep the Penn State offensive line off-balance on the ground but not to the point that the Nittany Lions’ offense shouldn’t get too far off schedule.

Defensively, Penn State’s pass rush, coverage and run defense are all quality units that should put Washington in a tough position. It’s a good offense, again fueled by NFL concepts, but the juice to challenge the Nittany Lions doesn’t seem like it’s all there.

Penn State: 35
Washington: 17

Matt Herb (Season Record – 7-1)

Washington is allowing only 142 passing yards per game, which is second-best in the FBS. Even USC, which has a formidable receiver corps and a talented if mistake-prone quarterback, had to lean on its ground game while trying to rally in the second half of last week’s 26-21 loss to the Huskies in Seattle.

But while Washington has been very good against the pass, it’s 70th in the country in rushing defense, with opponents averaging 150.8 yards per game and 4.27 per attempt. If that trend continues, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen should have opportunities to do some damage on Saturday night, just as Trojans tailback Woody Marks did in totaling 123 yards (5.6 per carry) last week.

The home-field advantage will help, too. White Outs always give PSU a boost, and Washington has been a different team on the road this year than at home. Coach Jedd Fisch’s squad is 5-0 in Husky Stadium with a 17.4-point average margin of victory. Meanwhile, it’s 0-3 on the road with a 13.7-point average margin of defeat.

Even after another demoralizing loss to Ohio State, the Lions are firmly in the mix for the College Football Playoff and have every reason to come out strong against Washington.

Penn State: 27
Washington: 17

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 8-0)

Let’s be clear: I did not think the Wisconsin game was a “trap” game for Penn State. And, it wasn’t. Similarly, I don’t think this matchup with Washington is a ‘letdown’ game after losing to Ohio State. If the Lions are going to lose, it will be because of general poor play and execution, not the Buckeyes beating them twice. Fortunately for all of you in ‘Nittany Nation,’ it’s hard to see that being the case. The Huskies bring some interesting pieces to town and are probably a bit better than both what I thought they would be and what their record indicates. But, there’s also a reason they have four losses: They struggle to consistently score and do not have a good rush defense.

Those two things will conspire against Saturday’s visitors in a White Out environment. It may not be easy for Penn State for a full 60 minutes, but it will be a comfortable win in the end.

Penn State: 31
Washington: 10

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 8-0)

I think Jedd Fisch should prove to be a quality hire for Washington, but following so much turnover after last year’s run to the CFP, I don’t believe the Huskies currently have the athletes or the depth to come into Beaver Stadium and upset Penn State.

Washington does have a quality running back in Jonah Coleman, but Penn State’s rushing defense is also the best the Huskies will see this season. Meanwhile, Washington is allowing teams to average 150.8 yards rushing this season, which is currently ranked No. 70 nationally. That sets up well for Singleton and Allen to have a bounce-back game.

The Huskies are also 0-3 when they’ve had to hit the road against Big Ten opponents this year, and I think that’ll continue Saturday night inside Beaver Stadium. A 13-point spread feels a bit high to me, especially when I see an over/under of just 46.5, but I think the Lions will cross that threshold with a late score. I see it playing out similarly to the UCLA game in some ways.

Penn State: 30
Washington: 13