Penn State-West Virginia Matchups: Who will have the edge in Week 1?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State and West Virginia battle in Morgantown for the first time since 1992. The Nittany Lions lead the all-time series 49-9-2 and are expected to make it 50 wins over the Mountaineers on the road. Head coach James Franklin’s team is an 8.5-point favorite ahead of the Noon ET kickoff on FOX. Watch College Football Games Live -Try Fubo for FREE! Click HERE NOW

“I feel really good about it,” Brown said on Monday in Morgantown. “I like the leadership on our team. We’re going to have a good football team, and we’ve worked a long time to be able to peak at the right time and that’s the hope.”

Back in State College, Lions coach James Franklin discussed the Big 12 school and the matchup ahead.

“They’re a prideful place,” Franklin said. “There are a ton of cool things about West Virginia football, this game, and the historical aspects of this game.

Then you also look at, like, when was the last time West Virginia beat Penn State, and when was the last time Penn State beat West Virginia? And, we got somebody on our staff that was there in their stadium the last time West Virginia won at their place. There is value in that. We got to tap into that, what that experience was like and how it happened, and so on and so forth.”

Here’s a closer look at who will have the edge on each side of the ball during the Week 1 matchup.

When Penn State has the ball

For at least the second season in a row, West Virginia did not place a single defender on the media preseason All-Big 12 team. Safety Aubrey Burks returns for a final season and looks to be the leader of the defense. It is coordinated by Jordan Lesley. Frankly speaking, there is little about the personnel on the Mountaineers defense that should scare the Nittany Lions. It’s hard to find one positon battle where the home side will have an edge. The portal took away from but also added to the personnel Lesley has to work with. It’s anyone’s guess, though, if the net change was positive or negative.

Penn State, of course, will be playing its first game with Andy Kotelnicki at the helm. Quarterback Drew Allar started his first game a year ago. Now, he enters year two as the first-teamer and will be leading the team on the road in what promises to be a hostile environment. Is he ready for it? And, perhaps most importantly, are three new starting offensive linemen and wide receivers room still establishing itself ready for it?

So much newness across the offense combined with likely rainy conditions could make this challenging for the Nittany Lions. Conversely, even with those two things working against Kotelnicki’s attack, enough experience returns to make us believe scoring should not be a problem. And, if it is, then the Nittany Lions have a big issue with it their expectations for the 2024 season.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Lions are on defense

Tackle Wyatt Milum returns on the left side to lead an offensive line that lost Zach Frazier and Doug Nester to the NFL. Many, including Phil Steele, do not think the dropoff up front will be as drastic as some expect it to be, considering who departed. Like Penn State, the Mountaineers believe they have capable replacement waiting in the wings. Time will tell.

Garrett Greene is back to lead the offense under center. Running backs Jaheim White and CJ Donaldson are back to lead the offense as its bell cows out of the backfield. Expect coordinator Chad Scott to dial up plenty of run plays, which first-year defensive coordinator Tom Allen must have his unit ready for out of its base 4-3 look and out what will be its oft-used 4-2-5 look.

The Penn State secondary will be a strength again this season, so Greene trying to win the game through the air seems unlikely. That’s true regardless of whether the rain falls or not. The Mountaineers will score some points in this game. There is too much new on the PSU side and too much talent on the WVU side to expect a shutout or even last year’s 15-point performance. But the Lions will win if they hold the Mountaineers to 24 points or less. And, that’s our expectation.

EDGE: Penn State

PSU-WVU matchup odds and ends

–Michael Hayes is back at place kicker for WVU. He made 80 percent of his 21 tries a year ago, with three of his four misses coming from outside of 50 yards. He is reliable, and gives the Mountaineers an edge in this department.

–Hidden yards via the punt game can be a factor. And, both teams have reliable punters. We give Riley Thompson a slight edge over Oliver Straw, but both are capable of pinning the other team deep.

–The Lions have no players from West Virginia on their roster. The Mountaineers have 14 from Pa., including former Lion lineman Fatorma Mulbah and Class of 2023 PSU target and receiver Rodney Gallagher.

Final word

Penn State is a deserving favorite in this game. In fact, I’m starting to get 2022 Maryland vibes when the line dropped during the week and some called for an upset before the Nittany Lions won 30-0 in College Park. As noted above, a shut out doesn’t seem likely. But, a comfortable, double-digit win can and should be. West Virginia has plenty to work with on offense, but its a class below the Lions in all areas. That will be evident on Saturday.