Penn State-West Virginia predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking the game

Penn State is a double-digit favorite for its home opener for the ninth time in 10 years. Most of those matchups have come against Group of Five opponents. This year, however, the Lions welcome Power Five foe West Virginia to town for a 7:30 p.m. kick on NBC. Penn State is projected as one of the top teams in the country, coming in at No. 7 in the preseason rankings. The Mountaineers are unranked and are projected to be the worst team in the Big 12. A spread that makes head coach James Franklin’s side a 20.5-point favorite signals the talent disparity between the two sides who are meeting for the 60th time on Saturday.

“To me this is what it’s all about,” West Virginia coach Neal Brown said this week. “When you play on NBC, ABC or CBS, I always think about my grandparents’ house in Gravel Switch, Kentucky. If you have bunny ears you get those games. If anybody in West Virginia still has bunny ears, they get NBC.

“Some of you young guys in this room don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, but any time you play on national television it’s an opportunity,” he explained. “People talk all the time, ‘What a challenge.’ You are starting with Penn State; yes, that’s true, but it is up to us to make the most of it. It’s a great opportunity. This is why you get into the profession. This is why you want to play big-time football for opportunities like this.”

Dating back to 2011, the Lions are 27-3 at home in September but just 16-13-1 against the number. Will they cover this week? And will the total go over or under 50.5 points? Our picks roundup takes a closer look.

Computer model picks for Penn State-West Virginia

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 39-16 for Penn State. That’s a Nittany Lion cover and pick for the over.

Sportsline sees it 35-16 in favor of PSU. So, WVU would cover if that prediction is correct.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 17-point win for the Lions.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a 24-point Nittany Lion triumph.

Lions-Mountaineers picks from a national perspective

Bruce Feldman of The Athletic predicts a Penn State cover with a final score of 37-13 in favor of the home side.

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports picks the Lions to cover the spread but did not offer an opinion on the total. Rob Paul at Covers did the same.

David Kenyon of Bleacher Report sees a 34-13 Nittany Lions win on the horizon.

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Rutgers

At PennLive, its coverage team plus guest picker Mike Asti of WV Sports Now all have Penn State winning. But, they’re split on whether or not the home team will cover the 20.5 point spread.

“In order for Brown to cool off his hot seat, he needs to win,” Asti writes in picking a PSU win but WVU cover, 36-17. “No excuse of a difficult schedule or anything else, no matter the legitimacy, will matter. But as Brown has said about facing Penn State at Beaver Stadium to open the season, “we’re not easing into this thing.”

“I do think the 2023 Mountaineers have a chance to be better than the 2022 version, but it’s very possible WVU can play well and still lose to this Penn State team.”

The Daily Collegian’s four-person picks crew are divided 3-1 in favor of the Lions covering. All have head coach James Franklin’s team starting the season 1-0.

Mark Wogenrich of SI picks Penn State to win 34-13. Cory Giger of DKPittsburghSports has the same score.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Mountaineers

Nate Bauer: Penn State: 28, West Virginia: 10

Sean Fitz: Penn State: 45, West Virginia: 10

Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State: 42, West Virginia: 20

Matt Herb: Penn State: 31, West Virginia: 16

Greg Pickel: Penn State: 38, West Virginia: 6

Ryan Snyder: Penn State: 35, West Virginia: 13