Penn State vs. West Virginia Predictions: Lions look to make a statement in home opener

Penn State’s much anticipated 2023 football season has finally arrived. Unlike most years under James Franklin’s leadership, the Nittany Lions will start the season against a Power Five opponent. Not only that, but it’s also against a regional rival on the recruiting trail in West Virginia.

While Penn State has College Football Playoff aspirations this season, the Mountaineers are aiming to right the ship after going 5-7 in 2022 and 6-7 in 2021. West Virginia was actually picked to finish last in the Big 12 this year during media day in July. Between that and this being a make-or-break year for head coach Neal Brown, expect the Mountaineers to push the chips in Saturday night.

All-time Penn State holds a commanding lead in this series, winning 48 of the 59 meetings between the two programs. However, this is the first time the two teams will square off since 1992, as the Nittany Lions moved to the Big Ten the following year.

So how will this one play out? Our staff gives their predictions below.

Nate Bauer

I like Penn State this season, and I think the Nittany Lions will win their opener against West Virginia convincingly. The Mountaineers are expected to finish at the bottom of the Big 12, and a trip to Beaver Stadium to open the season isn’t likely to go well for the visitors.

I’m just not expecting an offensive explosion from Drew Allar and the Nittany Lion offense right off the bat. While the Mountaineers are liable to struggle stopping Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen with any consistency, the notion that Allar and an untested flock of receivers will fire seamlessly is less believable.

That doesn’t mean Penn State can’t build and maintain a lead that looks and feels comfortable for the hosts deep into the fourth quarter, though. Boasting a defense that is talented, experienced, and cohesive, the Nittany Lions might not give up a touchdown until the backups take the field.

Penn State: 28
West Virginia: 10

Sean Fitz

Week one will have its hiccups, it almost always does. So don’t be shocked if both teams come out slow or West Virginia tries to bleed all it can with the new college football clock rules. Still, depth and talent will take over. Penn State has a lot of it, West Virginia… not so much. Add in what should be an enhanced atmosphere and the Nittany Lions have a lot going for them.

Perhaps more than anything, Penn State has a defense that dominated throughout camp. Given what we saw from the group last season, even though a few familiar faces moved on, the Nittany Lions’ defensive unit should be ahead of basically every other group playing in the game. We spent the offseason talking about Drew Allar and the offense while kind of taking the defense for granted. I think they’ll remind folks of their status on Saturday night.

Speaking of Allar, he has a lot going for him in what figures to be his first start. The Nittany Lions have the ability to hit the big play on the ground with Nick Singleton and pound away with Kaytron Allen. Penn State’s tight ends should find some space as well. If Allar shows that he has his pre-snap wherewithal down, that’s a great sign for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State: 45
West Virginia: 10

Thomas Frank Carr

West Virginia comes into town with a quality offensive line that plays well together and a strong running game. That sentence alone is enough to make some Penn State fans nervous.

It shouldn’t.

Penn State’s defensive line is more than enough to battle in the trenches with the Mountaineers, and their team speed, especially on defense, is something that even head coach Neal Brown said his team won’t see again all year. If Manny Diaz and his squad can make West Virginia one-dimensional, which they can, this will be a hard game for that side to score points.

On the flip side, Penn State’s weapons at tight end can be a game-changing factor that helps Mike Yurcich break the game open. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen will still be the stars, but expect big plays and maybe a long touchdown from Theo Johnson.

Penn State: 42
West Virginia: 20

Matt Herb

There are a lot of variables heading into this year’s opener, the main ones involving the two opposing quarterbacks. We think we know who the starters are going to be, and the fact that we don’t officially know is almost certainly just a bit of gamesmanship on the part of the respective coaching staffs. But even if Drew Allar and Garrett Greene are the choices for Penn State and West Virginia, respectively, we have a limited body of work on which to base a prediction for this game. What we do know is that Penn State is bringing an impressive array of defensive talent into its opener, and I think that Manny Diaz’s unit, coupled with a strong Nittany Lion ground attack, will carry the day.

Penn State: 31
West Virginia: 16

Greg Pickel

When sportsbooks across the country released their initial Week 1 lines, the Lions were installed as an 16.5-point favorite. The line sits at 20.5 on Wednesday morning and will likely go above three touchdowns before kickoff. It’s a fair number. Many see the Lions as a team who could not only win the BIg Ten but also make the College Football Playoff. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, are picked to finish dead last in the Big 12, are not expected to make a bowl game, and will have numerous first-time starters who must deal with a hostile crowd at Beaver Stadium.

Penn State still has question marks. That’s going to be true after this contest, too. And, some jitters throughout the contest are likely. But, the home team will not need a perfect game to win its opener convincingly. In fact, the only way this game is close entering the fourth quarter is an endless number of turnovers by the the Lions offense. It could be bumpy at times, especially if the emotions of the opener aren’t handled well initially. But, in the end, PSU rolls.

Penn State: 38
West Virginia: 6

Ryan Snyder

On paper, West Virginia looks like the perfect opponent to start the 2023 season. While they bring name recognition and Power Five status, the reality is that the Mountaineers aren’t where they want to be entering Neal Brown’s fifth season at the helm.

It should also be a good opponent for Drew Allar to get his first start, as West Virginia ranked 111th nationally last season in passing yards allowed. They were also towards the bottom in first downs allowed per game, ranking 96th nationally. Point is, they struggle to get stops.

Defensively, West Virginia hasn’t seen anything like the defense they’re about to face Saturday night. Because of that, I do think we’ll see Brown, who’s set to call the plays this season, attempt a few gadget plays. The Mountaineers will face Pitt, TCU and Texas Tech before the end of the month, so they need to be competitive here to build some much-needed confidence or Brown could be out by October.

With this being the first game of the season, I think we’ll see a few lulls that keep Penn State from reaching 40 points. It’ll be the defense that makes this game non-competitive though by the fourth quarter.

Penn State: 35
West Virginia: 13