Penn State-Wisconsin Matchups: Who will have the edge in Madison?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State football takes its 6-0 show on the road to Wisconsin this Saturday. Camp Randall Stadium will be rocking as the Badgers (5-2) look to extend their primetime record at home to 11-1 since 2016 while upsetting the No. 3 Nittany Lions, who are a 6.5-point favorite ahead of kickoff. Who will have the edge on offense, defense, and special teams on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)? We break it down below.

When Penn State is on offense

The Badgers own the No. 7 pass defense in all of college football. They have the No. 14 total defense from a yardage perspective. But, the rush defense has had some problems: Coordinator Mike Tressel’s group is No. 61 in that department (all stats and rankings courtesy of CFBStats.com).

When breaking down the Penn State offense versus the group trying to stop it, you must pause and consider which Wisconsin defense will show up. Is it the one that has helped lead a three-game resurgence by holding its last trio of foes, all of which are among the worst offenses in the country (Rutgers is the best at No. 76) to just 16 points? Or, will it be the defense that surrendered 407 and 469 yards and 80 points in back-to-back losses to Alabama and USC, which both own statistical attacks in the back half of the top 15 while Penn State currently sits at No. 10?

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On paper, there’s no reason to think the Lions should have any issue topping the 30-point mark for the fifth time this season. Then again, we thought that against Illinois and UCLA, too, and the Lions’ slugged their way to just 21 and 27, respectively. Those two outings and lingering questions about Nick Singleton being 100 percent and the explosive weapon this offense needs are why you’d be concerned going into this game in addition to the obvious potential for communication issues due to crowd noise. But, by and large, we expect Andy Kotelnicki to have a strong plan of attack coming out of the bye week to get Penn State playmakers in space.

The Wisconsin defense might not be as bad as it was in the team’s two losses. But, it’s also not as good as its shown the last three weeks against putrid opponents. It’s not by as wide of a margin as that might indicate, but the edge here rests with the road team.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

Wisconsin’s offense has suffered two major setbacks since preseason camp. Starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke and star running back Chez Mellusi are out for the season due to injuries. Braedyn Locke has taken over under center and done some fine things but his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 7-to-5 is problematic for the Badgers and he has not yet been someone capable of hurting opponents with his feet. Tawee Walker is Wisconsin’s new backfield leader with Mellusi sidelined. His nine rushing touchdowns are the third-most in the Big Ten.

Luke Fickell’s attack simply does nothing spectacular. It’s No. 56 nationally in total offense. And now it must face one of its stiffest tests to date by just about any metric you want to work off of. The Badgers are just OK in every metric. Does Penn State have some depth issues on defense? Of course. Does it have a bit of a reputation at this point of allowing some mental lapses to hurt it in addition to some untimely tackle woes and the occasional propensity to give up huge plays? You bet. But, unlike USC, Wisconsin does not possess many (and closer to any) explosive pieces on offense and can only win if the defense puts it in a position to do so.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Wisconsin punter Atticus Bertrams can boom the ball. It will be imperative that Penn State counterpart and fellow Australian Riley Thompson matches him when called upon.

–The Badgers blocked a field goal last week, for whatever that might be worth.

–Kick returner Vinny Anthony can be a bit of a weapon if given room to work.

–Even though Ryan Barker’s college career is just getting started, Penn State appears to have the field goal kicking edge. Wisconsin’s Nathanial Vakos is just 6 of 10 on the year.

Final word on Penn State-Wisconsin

On paper, there is little reason to think Penn State will struggle to win this game by a touchdown or even the double-digits that the lookahead line of -10.5 called for last week. But, narratives die hard, and the ones that say the Lions have struggled on the road in “big” games and coming out of the bye week in the James Franklin era are prompting many to create the belief that this game should be close. If the Nittany Lions are the team they want to be and have mostly shown to be, it won’t be.