Penn State-Wisconsin Predictions: Lions aim to stay unbeaten

Bye weeks are supposed to be a good thing for football teams, but that hasn’t always been the case for Penn State. Under James Franklin’s leadership, Penn State is 5-6 all-time coming off a bye week. However, if you don’t include PSU’s two most recent bye weeks vs. Kent State (2024) and UMass (2023), they’re 3-6, all of which were against Big Ten opponents. Not great.

To be fair, they did play Michigan or Ohio State in six of those nine games, but losses to Michigan State (2018) and Illinois (2021) haven’t been forgotten by Nittany Lion fans.

Now, following a thrilling win over USC a few weeks ago, Penn State is set to hit the road for what should be its toughest remaining away game at Wisconsin. It’s a series that’s been pretty even over the years, with Penn State holding an 11 to 9 advantage over the Badgers. However, they haven’t played nearly as much in recent years, squaring off just three times since Franklin took over the program. Penn State has won all three of those matchups as well, including the 2021 season opener in Madison.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 6-0)

The time between Penn State’s last game and its trip to Madison this weekend feels substantial. Though just a bye on the schedule, the nature of the Nittany Lions’ walk-off, overtime win at Southern Cal featured the duality of the heights of momentum and the vacuum that arrived in its aftermath.

Now, the question is what to make of it and whether the trajectory will be unbroken against the Badgers.

That Franklin opened the week talking about Wisconin’s three most recent performances and the steady improvement the Badgers are showing. Soundly beating Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern doesn’t provide the type of litmus test from which much can be gleaned, though. Effectively balancing a combination of known and unknown from these two teams, then, anticipating the continuation of tendencies seems a good place to lean when picking this game.

Against pretty good competition, Wisconsin didn’t do much offensively. Could that change against Penn State? Maybe, but the Nittany Lions have largely demonstrated their worth as a quality defense. In the same vein, the Badgers’ most dominant defensive performances have come against opponents without much a threat of dynamic playmaking.

Given those circumstances, and what Penn State has demonstrated on both sides of the ball thus far this season, another tight first half, stout third quarter, and fourth quarter cushion is maybe the most likely scenario for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State: 27
Wisconsin: 21

Sean Fitz (Season Record – 6-0)

It’s midweek, and I’m still not sure what to make of Wisconsin. The Badgers have looked much better the last three weeks in wins over Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern. The catch, of course, is that those wins came against Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern. The standard set earlier in the year with decisive losses to Alabama and USC – two traditional powers who haven’t exactly lit it up since those wins – is a bit different.

This is a Wisconsin team built differently than conventional expectations would suggest. Luke Fickell brought in offensive coordinator Phil Longo to bring elements of the Air Raid to Madison. He also signed Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke to throw the ball around the yard with the hopes of recapturing his form from a few years ago. Well, it’s now halfway through the season. Van Dyke’s season ended via injury in September and former Mississippi State transfer Braedyn Locke is now pulling the strings. The Badgers also lead the Big Ten in carries, so maybe the old Bucky is back after all?

Locke is now managing the game as Oklahoma transfer running back Tawee Walker carries the load. He has 66 carries in the last three weeks and the offensive line has picked up some confidence. He’s a good back and Penn State will have to hit him early and often. I still don’t believe the Badgers are a great team by any stretch, but the scenario of going into Camp Randall for an October night game will keep this one close.

Coming slow out of the bye week is almost a rite of passage at this point. The Nittany Lions cannot let the Badgers drag them into another slog, because that’s when it could get testy. If you’re Penn State, keep going with what works – make the defense think and capitalize with some chunks. Another key here is turnovers. The Nittany Lions haven’t been great about getting them, but Wisconsin has been very generous this season. The Badgers are tied for 93rd nationally with a -3 turnover ratio.

Penn State: 27
Wisconsin: 14

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 6-0)

Penn State comes off its bye week at the right time. The team’s offense was banged up over the last few games and, presumably, had a chance to heal up for the team’s final stretch of games this year. From that perspective, it would be a huge advantage in this game if Nick Singleton and Anthony Donkoh were back to nearly 100%. Wisconsin has an average run defense that contains teams laterally but can be moved off the ball along the defensive line. If the run game regains its former efficiency, it should be a quick game for offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s squad.

If not, quarterback Drew Allar and the passing game are good enough to get a win, but this is likely the best overall secondary the team has seen this year. From scheme to talent, this group plays well together and at least challenges USC and Alabama for the first half of each game. Does Penn State have weapons that can win in man coverage over good DBs? We may find out.

Defensively, the recipe for another frustrating game for fans is there. Wisconsin is leaning on its offensive line this year, unlike in 2023. The front five is good overall, and the passing game gets protection from quick passes, well-timed shot plays, and a quick trigger from backup QB Braeden Locke.

However, it’s not such a good unit that they should get Penn State off schedule for an entire game. The defensive line should be good enough to stop the run, and the secondary should lock down the Wisconsin receivers to put Locke in a no-win situation. A fast start by the offense virtually locks in a big win.

Penn State: 31
Wisconsin: 17

Matt Herb (Season Record – 5-1)

Camp Randall Stadium is a tough place to play, no doubt. It’ll be especially inhospitable at night under the primetime lights. But the Nittany Lions have won three of their past four games in Madison, and they showed at USC that they’ve got the kind of team that can go on the road and pull out a win against a talented opponent.

Three performers in particular stood out in the overtime victory over the Trojans, and they inspire optimism heading into what figures to be another tough test against Wisconsin. There was Tyler Warren, obviously, and Drew Allar, who, with the Nittany Lions needing points in the second half, went 17-for-23 for 264 yards and two touchdowns.

There was also Ryan Barker. Allar and Warren had been expected to do big things this year, but the Lions’ kicking situation was a concern. A month ago, if you had told me that the USC game would come down to a field goal, I wouldn’t have felt good about PSU’s chances. But while the sample size is small, Barker showed against the Trojans that he’s capable of delivering in high-pressure situations. Given the difficulty of the opponent and the venue, along with Penn State’s penchant for not covering the spread (6.5 points this week), it wouldn’t be surprising if the Lions were to find themselves faced with another situation in which field goal kicking proves crucial.

Penn State: 27
Wisconsin: 21

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 6-0)

I’m am either going to be very right about this game by the time late Saturday night rolls around or extremely wrong, because I haven’t left much doubt about where I stand on this game and will extinguish any more that might exist now. On paper, there is no reason Penn State should win this game by anything less than 10. The game isn’t played on the stat sheet, of course. But the numbers paint a story of a Wisconsin offense that shouldn’t do much damage until a top-10 defense like the one the Nittany Lions have until possibly garbage time. The defense is playing better lately. But we’ll need to see it to believe that it’s not more like the one that was susceptible to big plays in the team’s two losses this year as opposed to the one that is shutting down below-average offenses over the last three weeks.

Penn State fans will continue to find reasons to explain why they think this game could be decided by a touchdown or less. None of them really make sense to me, least of all the “trap” game notion coming out of the bye week.

Penn State: 30
Wisconsin: 10

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 6-0)

I feel like this one should play out similarly to the Illinois game a few weeks back. Coming into that game, all the talk surrounded Penn State’s pass rush and whether they’d be able to pressure Illini QB Luke Altmeyer. After all, the Lions had just four sacks combined in the first three games. Of course, they ended up sacking Altmeyer seven times and had 13 tackles for loss in that game, crushing any hope the Fighting Illini had of rallying late.

I don’t think we’ll see those numbers on the road, but I do believe Penn State has the defensive speed and physicality to present the same issues Alabama brought earlier this season. That game finished 42-10.

But also, similar to Illinois, Wisconsin’s rushing defense hasn’t been anything special this season. The Badgers are currently ranked No. 61 nationally in yards allowed per game (139.9) and No. 85 out of 134 teams in PFF’s rush defense grading. We saw Penn State wear down Illinois in the second half, totaling 239 yards rushing in that game. I think we see something similar here on the road.

Penn State’s offense has played much better in the second half this season, which means the defense will have to come out of the gate strong. Wisconsin has done some nice things in recent weeks, but I don’t think they have the athletes to hang with PSU for four quarters. I expect a close score at halftime before the Nittany Lions do what they’ve done all season in the second half.

Penn State: 24
Wisconsin: 14