Penn State wrestling at the Olympics: What are the medal chances for the 5 NLWC connections?
Penn State wrestling and the Nittany Lion Wrestling Club will be well represented this week in Paris. Four of the six members of the U.S. men’s freestyle team, which starts competition on Thursday, have NLWC ties, and two of them are PSU alums. A third former member of head coach Cael Sanderson’s team will compete for Team Mexico. Get up to speed on everything you need to know below.
57 kilograms: Roman Bravo-Young looks to medal for Mexico
Former multi-time Penn State NCAA champ Roman Bravo-Young is the lone Lion connection competing for someone besides the U.S.
The bracket: 57 kilograms (125.6 pounds)
The schedule: Aug. 8: Prelims at 5:30 a.m. ET, semis at 12:15 p.m. ET; Aug. 9: Medal round at 1:30 p.m. ET
Who is the betting favorite? It’s a former Big Ten star who is very familiar to Penn State fans: Spencer Lee. At FanDuel, he is a commanding -220 favorite to win it all. The second-best odds on the board are for Rei Higuchi of Japan, who is +420.
What are RBY’s medal chances?: This section will be updated once bracket information is out. RBY is unseeded and thus we won’t know his path to a medal stand until information about his first match becomes available. That said, with +950 odds to win it all, he currently projects just off the medal stand with a fourth place finish.
86 kilograms: Penn State alum Aaron Brooks
Brooks earned his spot by beating fellow Penn State great David Taylor at the U.S. Olympic Team Trials back in April. He enters his first Olympic games.
The bracket: 86 kilograms (189.5 pounds)
The schedule: Aug. 8: Prelims at 5:30 a.m. ET, semis at 12:35 p.m. ET; Aug. 9: Medal round at 2:05 p.m. ET
Who is the betting favorite? Two-time Olympic medalist Hassan Yazdani of Iran is the current betting favorite. And, rightly so, considering his past success at both the games and just the International stage in general. He is -180 to win it all. Brooks is the second betting choice at +135.
What are Brooks’ medal chances?: We think they are quite good at the moment. But, as with Retherford, Brooks is unseeded due to his minimal competition on the International scene this Olympic cycle due to his college obligations. Where he draws in will have as much to do with his path to the podium as anything. But, before knowing that, we say his chances of finishing first, second, or third are above average.
74 kilograms: NLWC member Kyle Dake
Dake, who will compete for Team USA, has won just about everything there is to win in folkstyle and freestyle wrestling except an Olympic gold medal.
The bracket: 74 kilograms (163.1 pounds)
The schedule: Aug. 9 Prelims at 5:30 a.m. ET, semis at 12:35 p.m. ET; Aug. 10: Medal round at 1:30 p.m. ET
Who is the betting favorite? Dake is the betting favorite. His odds to win it all have risen to as high as -700 at some points. But, as of Wednesday, he still sits as a commanding -440 favorite to win it all.
What are Dake’s medal chances?: About as good as they can be. We’re not saying he’s guaranteed to win gold. But, he would have to be monumentally upset to not his the podium at all. In the last Olympics, he finished with bronze. He is the No. 1 seed in his bracket. And, no one in it should scare him.
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65 kilograms: Penn State alum Zain Retherford
Retherford earned a trip to his first Olympic games after beating Penn State alum Nick Lee at the U.S. World Team Trials earlier this year.
The bracket: 65 kilograms (143.3 pounds)
The schedule: Aug. 10 Prelims at 5:30 a.m. ET, semis at 12:15 p.m. ET; Aug. 11: Medal round at 6 a.m. ET
Who is the betting favorite? It’s not the Penn State alum. That honor goes to Iszmail Muszukajev of Hungry. He is just +175 to win it all, though. Retherford is not seeded and thus his betting odds to win gold of +400, which is third best, could go up or down once the brackets are out.
What are Retherford’s medal chances?: It’s truly hard to say. This is as wide open of a field as they come. But, who will Retherford face first? And, is his body still good with the cut to 65 kilograms from 70? Those questions will tell the tale here. We are on record predicting he will find a way to medal. But, he’s and RBY are probably the least likely of the five to do so.
97 kilograms: NLWC member Kyle Snyder
Snyder enters his third Olympics. The Nittany Lion Wrestling Club member won gold in 2016 and silver in 2020.
The bracket: 97 kilograms (213 pounds)
The schedule: Aug. 10 Prelims at 5:30 a.m. ET, semis at 12:35 p.m. ET; Aug. 11: Medal round at 6:30 a.m. ET
Who is the betting favorite? It’s Akhmed Tazhudinov of Bahrain. He is -180. Snyder is the second betting choice at +150.
What are Snyder’s medal chances?: They’re quite good. He’s two-for-two on hitting the podium at the Olympics and there is no reason a third can’t be in the cards. But, he is on the same side of the bracket as Tazhudinov, who already beat him once. Assuming a rematch is on the horizon, it will be one of the most anticipated matches of the tournament.
