Penn State wrestling: Breaking down the Lions' NCAA outlook at 165-285 pounds

A 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships field that starts with 330 wrestlers on Thursday will end with 10 individual champions and one winner of the team race by the time the finals are in the books Saturday night. Penn State is taking a representative at every weight class to the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo., with hopes of crowning 10 All-Americans, as many national champs as possible, and keeping its team title-winning streak alive.

Blue-White Illustrated will be previewing the event up until it starts on Thursday and then will have live updates throughout the three-day event. We start with an outlook for each Lions wrestler. On Monday, we’ll covered the 125-157 pound weight classes. Today, March 19, we’ll look at 165-285. Wednesday, we’ll offer our predictions. And, Thursday, we’ll have information on how to watch every session. An audio/video show will be available before the first match, as well.

See the 125-157 pound breakdown here. And, find the outlook for 165-285 below.

165 pounds: Redshirt freshman Mitchell Mesenbrink

Seed: No. 2

Opening opponent: No. 2 Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State vs. No. 31 Maxx Mayfield, Northwestern

Weight class breakdown: Mesenbrink enters this year’s NCAA Tournament fresh off a Big Ten title. He is 22-0 overall and 10-0 against the field. The bracket draw worked out fine for the Nittany Lion. He is favored to make the semifinals. He could see No. 3 Julan Rameriez of Cornell there or a foe he already beat this year in No. 6 Mikey Caliendo of Iowa. The first-year Penn State wrestler is also favored to make the finals, where he’d meet No. 1 Keegan O’Toole of Missouri, who is the favorite to win the weight class this year, if the bracket chalks out. No. 4 David Carr of Iowa State and No. 5 Dean Hamiti of Wisconsin will both have something to say about that, of course. But, O’Toole, a two-time NCAA champ, leads the field here.

174 pounds: Penn State senior Carter Starocci

Seed: No. 9

Expected opening opponent: No. 9 Carter Starocci, PSU vs. No. 24 Andrew Sparks, Minnesota

Weight class breakdown: The status of Starocci’s knee has been the talk of the sport since it was injured in late February. Despite claiming to be ready to wrestle, Penn State coach Cael Sanderson directed the three-time NCAA champion to forfeit for medical reasons twice at Big Tens so he could continue healing. That choice, which Starocci clearly disagreed with but has since accepted, is fueling the Nittany Lion, who looks to win his fourth NCAA title. We’ll see him on the mat for the first time Thursday to get a feel for what if any, limitations he has. The going rate is that there won’t be any.

Starocci figures to face No. 1 Mehki Lewis of Virginia Tech in the quarterfinals. In just about any other year, that would be a likely finals matchup. The Nittany Lion beat the Hokie in last year’s NCAA finals. Michigan’s Shane Griffith is the No. 4 seed and possible semifinal opponent for either, but he medically defaulted out of the Big Ten final due to a knee injury that has his own status in question. We’d be surprised if anyone other than No. 2 Cade Devos of San Diego State makes the final from the bottom half of the bracket. But, No. 3 Edmond Ruth will look to make a run if he makes it to that side’s semifinal.

184 pounds: Graduate senior Bernie Truax

Seed: No. 6

Opening opponent: No. 6 Bernie Truax, Penn State vs. No. 27 Cameron Pine, Clarion

Weight class breakdown: Truax comes to his fourth national tournament fresh off a runner-up finish at Big Tens. He is already a three-time All-American from his time at Cal Poly before arriving at Penn State for the 2023-2024 season. He is on track to face No. 3 Dustin Plott of Oklahoma State in the quarters. Getting there and defeating one him would likely lead Truax to find himself opposite Minnesota’s Isaiah Salazar, the NCAA No. 2 seed who just beat him by a bit of a deceiving 8-1 decision in sudden victory at the conference tournament, in the semifinals. No. 1 Parker Keckeisen of Northern Iowa is likely to hold serve on the top half of the bracket.

197 pounds: Penn State graduate senior Aaron Brooks

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: No. 1 Aaron Brooks, PSU vs. winner of No. 33 Evan Bates, Northwestern vs. No. 32 John Crawford, Franklin & Marshall

Weight class breakdown: Brooks won his first three NCAA titles by dominating at 184 pounds. He changed weights this year to 197. But, his prolific run as a college wrestler has been unchanged. He is again a Big Ten champ and is 17-0 on the season and 9-0 against this field. We see no one who can stop the Penn State star on the top half of the bracket. And, it’s a safe bet to say that the wrestling world is begging for the seeds to hold. That would lead to a final between Brooks and two-seed Trent Hidlay of North Carolina State. He, of course, is a Pa., native and Mifflin County alum.

285 pounds: Senior Greg Kerkvliet

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State vs. winner of No. 33 Jordan Greer, Ohio vs. No. 32 Nick Willham, Indiana

Weight class breakdown: After being the hunter to start his college career, Kerkvliet is the hunted wrestler now in this weight class. He is a Big Ten champ and 15-0 on the year, which includes a 10-0 mark against this field. We can’t find any way to make a case for the Penn State senior to not make the finals. Who he wrestles there, though, is less clear. A semifinal on the bottom half between No. 2 Yonder Bastida of Iowa State and No. 3 Wyatt Hendrickson of Air Force could be the best bout of Friday night’s semifinal session if it materializes.