Predicting where each Penn State wrestler will be seeded at the 2024 NCAA Championships

Penn State wrestling will have competitors in all 10 weight classes at this year’s NCAA Championships. The Nittany Lions qualified nine of their wrestlers at the Big Ten Championships, where they earned automatic bids based on where they placed at the conference tournament. Their 10th entrant, 174-pound three-time national champion Carter Starocci, punched his ticket to nationals back on Tuesday when the tournament’s at-large bids were awarded. He needed one of those after failing to place at Big Tens due to a knee injury that caused him to forfeit a pair of matches while still giving him a chance to earn the at-large invitation.

“It was a great effort. I mean, the Big Ten finals are pretty similar to the national finals,” Lions coach Cael Sanderson said. “It’s just great preparation for our guys and we’re very grateful to be in this conference with these quality wrestlers.”

The seeds and brackets for the event, which runs next Thursday-Saturday in Kansas City, will be released tonight at 8 p.m. on NCAA.com. Before that, we’re taking our best guesses at where each Nittany Lion could be seeded.

Predicting the Penn State seeds: 125 – 157 pounds

125: We start with freshman Braeden Davis. He won his first Big Ten title last weekend by beating numerous foes who had him by a couple of years in the age department. The multi-time Michigan prep champ had some ups and downs during his first season. But, he roared in his initial postseason appearance. Now, he’s off to nationals. We expect he’ll be the either the No. 1 or No. 2 seed, based on the coaches ranking part of the three-part component that also includes RPI rankings and win percentage. Our gut says he’ll be No. 1. Our head says No. 2. So, that’s the pick we go with.

133: Aaron Nagao finished third at Big Tens. He won All-American honors last year at Minnesota. Now with Penn State, he projects to slot in anywhere from No. 4 to No. 9. We’ll mostly cut the difference and put him at No. 7. Though, him coming in higher or lower than that won’t be a surprise to anyone.

141: Beau Bartlett finished second at Big Tens. He fell 4-1 in the final to Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez. The Penn State senior beat the Buckeye by the same score during the dual meet season. Mendez had five more wins than Bartlett during the regular season, though he had two losses than to Bartlett’s one. All told, we expect Mendez to be the No. 1 seed and Bartlett the No. 2.

149: Freshman Tyler Kasak finished third at Big Tens. He was 17-4 during the regular season, with one of those losses coming against expected No. 1 seed Ridge Lovett of Nebraska. We could see the Nittany Lion being seeded anywhere between Nos. 5-8. For the sake of this exercise, we’ll put him at No. 7.

157: Sophomore Levi Haines beat Michigan’s Will Lewan 4-1 in sudden victory at Big Tens. He is the cream of the crop in this weight class. That will lead him to be the No. 1 seed.

Projecting the Nittany Lions’ seeds 165 – 285 pounds

165: Few college wrestlers have improved and dominated the way first-year Penn State wrestler Mitchell Mesenbrink has this season. He was a perfect 22-0 during the regular season and won three matches at Big Tens to take his first conference title. Mesenbrink will be the No. 2 seed at NCAAs behind undefeated Big 12 champ Keegan O’Toole of Missouri.

174: Carter Starocci would have been the top seed here. But, his pair of forfeits at Big Tens combined with the fact that he did not compete in every dual meet match this season will hurt him in the win percentage component of the seeding formula. We could see him as high as No. 3 and as low as No. 6. So, let’s split the difference and put him at No. 4.

184: Bernie Truax finished second at Big Tens. He had a fine if not perfect first year with Penn State. He projects as the five seed at NCAAs in this weight class.

197: Aaron Brooks rolled through the Big Ten Championships to win his first title in this weight class. He was 17-0 during the regular season. There is possibly an argument to be made that North Carolina State’s Trent Hidlay, who was 24-0 before the postseason started and won an ACC championship, should be the top seed. But, we feel fairly confident that it will be Brooks.

285: Big Ten champion Greg Kerkvliet should be the No. 1 seed at heavyweight in Kansas City, and that is our prediction. But, Yonger Bastida of Iowa State is also undefeated and has a case to be made. But, will predict the Penn State star to be on the top line.