What are Penn State basketball's paths to the NCAA Tournament?

Winners of a dramatic, 68-65 overtime battle at Northwestern late Wednesday night, the Nittany Lions’ NCAA Tournament hopes are still within reach. Just as Penn State head coach Micah Shrewsberry had insisted days earlier, moments after a devastating loss to Rutgers, that notion is now reflected in full ahead of the final weekend slate of regular season games. 

Updated Friday morning, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Penn State as his last team in the tournament. Along with Wisconsin and Michigan, the Badgers are also among the last four in, and the Wolverines are among his first four out, the Nittany Lions “are fighting until the final hours of the schedule.”

Also updated Friday morning, CBS expert Jerry Palm also includes Penn State in his field of 68. In the latest projection, the Nittany Lions are hypothetically paired with Michigan for a First Four game in Dayton.

With Selection Sunday still 10 days away, though, Penn State won’t sit idly as it attempts to end an NCAA Tournament drought dating back to 2011 for the program. 

Guaranteed at least two more games, only the Nittany Lions’ date with Maryland on Sunday at the Bryce Jordan Center (noon, BTN), is solidified. But, the implications in Happy Valley, and across the rest of the national college basketball landscape, are massive in every direction based on its outcome. 

Here, we’ll take an up-to-the-minute look at where the Nittany Lions are now, what’s next, and what influences could shape the program’s postseason future:

Penn State vs. Maryland ramifications

Bottom line, the differences between winning and losing could land the Nittany Lions anywhere between the No. 10, 11, and 12 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. 

The clearest and best path for Penn State starts with a win on Sunday. Doing so secures the 10-seed in the Big Ten Tournament with no math coming into the picture. At 9-10 in conference play, the Nittany Lions cannot overtake the two 10-win teams above them in the standings given two losses to Rutgers and one to Michigan State this season. Instead, a win would lift Penn State to 10-10 in the Big Ten (and only the seventh .500-or-better season since joining the conference 31 years ago). 

With the Big Ten Tournament serving as the fork in the road, three scenarios can play out with a loss to Maryland.

With Nebraska and Wisconsin each at 8-11 in conference play, their games on Sunday would be paramount in the case of a Penn State loss. The Cornhuskers travel to Iowa for a 2 p.m. tip. Wisconsin wraps up at Minnesota in a 7:30 p.m. game.

Most favorable to the Nittany Lions with a loss is, clearly, losses for Nebraska and Wisconsin. The worst case would be two wins, dropping them to No. 12 in the conference tournament with Nebraska then taking the 10-spot, Wisconsin at 11, and Penn State last given the trio’s round-robin records. 

A split for Nebraska and Wisconsin, however, also leads to different outcomes. A Nebraska win and Wisconsin loss land Penn State at No. 10, with the Nittany Lions’ combined record against Indiana, Maryland, and Northwestern (2-2) better than Nebraska’s (1-3) against the same teams. A Wisconsin win and Nebraska loss, however, send Penn State to the 11-seed with the Badgers owning the head-to-head matchup. 

Into the weeds

Acknowledging the wild nature of the Big Ten this season, with nine teams now owning 11, 10, or 9 conference wins at this point, Shrewsberry prefaced what’s coming in Chicago next week. 

“As a fan, next week should be fun. The conference tournament should be a blast if you’re a fan,” he said. “You have no idea what’s going to happen when everybody rolls into Chicago. So we’ll get to that when we get to that.”

For coaches and programs, the experience is likely to be significantly more stressful. 

As the 10-seed, with a win, Penn State is positioned well for the NCAA Tournament given how its resume would look with or without success in the conference tournament. Presently 4-6 in Quad 1 games and 4-5 in Quad 2 games, that number would improve to 5-6 with a win over Maryland, with another guaranteed Quad 1 game against any of the potential 7-seed opponents in Chicago. 

That doesn’t mean the Nittany Lions’ resume can’t improve or diminish given other potential outcomes. 

Other Big Ten significance

Five programs and their pending results are of particular significance.

Indiana: Right now at No. 29, the Hoosiers are a Quad 1 win for Penn State, 85-66, in January. Hosting Michigan on Sunday at 4:30, a loss to the Wolverines becomes problematic for Penn State in two ways. First, the Indiana win at home likely drops to Quad 2. Concurrently, a win significantly strengthens Michigan’s argument for an at-large bid in the same bubble space Penn State is fighting.

Illinois: Helping Penn State by knocking off the Wolverines on Thursday night, Illinois gets No. 5 Purdue on Sunday afternoon to close the season. Currently holding a No. 34 NET ranking, Penn State’s two wins over the Illini represent a Quad 1/2 decisions, away/home. An Illini win over the Boilermakers nearly assures Penn State two Quad 1 wins, needing to jump just four spots into Quad 1 territory. 

Michigan State: Penn State’s Dec. 7 loss to Michigan State has fluctuated between Quad 2, Quad 1, and back to Quad 2 through the course of the season. At No. 31 in the NET, the Spartans are only one spot from becoming a more favorable Quad 1 loss.

Iowa: Of the likely movement between Quad 2 and Quad 1, at No. 33 in the NET, the Hawkeyes can very much still improve into a Quad 1 win for Penn State after their New Year’s Day date finished as an 83-79 decision in favor of the Nittany Lions.

Wisconsin: At No. 77 currently in the NET, Penn State’s loss to Wisconsin on Feb. 8 at the BJC represents the only blemish on the Nittany Lions’ resume. Wins for Wisconsin (absent a Penn State loss on Sunday) potentially improve the Nittany Lions to a final 10-0 mark in Quad 3/4 games. 

What’s at stake

Moments after his sending Penn State to its win at Northwestern on Wednesday night, Camren Wynter broke down the meaning of an NCAA Tournament berth to him personally. And, as Jalen Pickett intimated two weeks prior, and Shrewsberry in the time since, the Nittany Lions believe they’re capable of getting there, very much belong there, and have the opportunity to do something special for a Penn State 

“It just makes you hungry. It’s the only reason I came here. I wanted to go to the tournament,” Wynter told Penn State’s radio broadcast. “I thought we had a great chance before I got here. Being here, I think we have a better chance. We’re a great team and we deserve to be in the tournament.”