Three Orange Bowl Thoughts: Injuries, contingency plans and the running game X factor

By Sean Fitz

There’s a lot to digest in the week leading up to the Orange Bowl, which will kick off on Thursday evening at 7:30 in Miami Gardens at Joe Robbie Pro Player LandShark Sun Life Hard Rock Stadium. Penn State is making its first College Football Playoff semifinal appearance against Notre Dame, who handled Georgia in the Sugar Bowl last week. 

While press conferences and quotes are great, they’ll be just window-dressing leading up to the actual clash. What are the real talking points when the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish meet? Here’s what’s on my mind on a Monday afternoon.

Is the injury picture actually clearing up?

Neither James Franklin nor Marcus Freeman are going to tip their hand here leading up to the game, nor should they. After a long season and two rounds of playoff games, everybody is beat up. It’s a part of the game and while we would love to see each team at full strength, that’s not exactly relevant this week. It is worth noting that both sides have been without potential All-Americans in the secondary in KJ Winston and Benjamin Morrison and their best offensive tackles in Anthony Donkoh and Charles Jagusah. Notre Dame’ missing star defensive tackle Rylie Mills probably gives the Irish the edge in who is missing more long-term, although Penn State defensive tackle Alonzo Ford would be pretty nice to have against the Notre Dame run game.

Having said all that, the eyes are on those in doubt after the playoff quarterfinals. The biggest name on either side remains Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter. Franklin said what you would expect Franklin to say regarding the shoulder on Saturday. We’re confident that there won’t be a thorough update on Carter’s status until gameday, if that. Mums the word in Lasch on injuries as usual. What we do believe, however, is that Carter will do what he can to get into the game. How effective a pass rusher can be with a dinged shoulder and when will Penn State know his limitations and respond remain the ultimate wild cards. Last year at this time, Carter played through an injury in the Peach Bowl with much, much lower stakes than what is at hand. Given the competitor in him, it’s tough to rule him out even at a pro-rated status level. 

Speaking of gamers, Notre Dame Jeremiyah Love certainly fits the description for the Irish. He’s been banged up down the stretch and left the Sugar Bowl after re-aggravating the knee. He was braced up at practice and Blue and Gold reporters on hand indicated there was some level of discomfort. It’s easier to look at Love and say he’s going to play in comparison to Carter, who was not spotted at Penn State’s open practice on Sunday. Even taking into account the caveat that it’s January and everyone is banged up, Love’s status for Thursday can’t be looked at as full-go. 

The second big one on the Irish side is defensive tackle Howard Cross III, who also went down against the Bulldogs. He had a heavy wrap on his left ankle at practice, per Blue and Gold’s Jack Soble. Like Love, Cross should be able to suit up but it’s tough to know how effective he will be. The group as a whole didn’t do much at practice on Sunday while reporters were on hand. Defensive end Joshua Burnham also had a heavy wrap on his ankle and saw his snap count decrease against Georgia. 

From those that we highlighted late last week on the Penn State side, both Dani Dennis-Sutton and A.J. Harris were present and accounted for at practice on Sunday. Jaylen Reed and Kobe King were also bumped up in the Fiesta Bowl, but all four seem good to go. Notre Dame tight end Cooper Flanagan left the Sugar Bowl and he’ll miss the rest of the season. Linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa was limited in practice once again this week. The talented freshman played as a situational pass rusher against Georgia. 

So who are the contingency plans to know?

We are assuming the three guys with the injuries we’ve harped on the most so far — Carter, Love and Cross III — will be, at best, limited. So that opens the door for backups to step up or, potentially, be exposed by the opposition. Staffers from both sides will comb the other sides’ reports all week for even a hint of what they’ll actually see on Thursday. 

First up, on the Penn State side, Carter’s snaps were absorbed by senior Amin Vanover. Vanover played, by far we thought, his best game of the season against Boise. He had six tackles, two tackles for loss and a sack as the Nittany Lions shut down Ashton Jeanty. His 55 snaps were a season-high and you could see the confidence come out with the extended reps. If Penn State can get that version of Vanover on Thursday, the Nittany Lions will be just fine. But, of course, it can’t be just one guy if Carter is that limited. Smith Vilbert also played a season-high 31 snaps and did not fare as well. Vilbert has struggled to hold contain at times this season and misdirection has worked with No. 92 out there. He’s going to have to play a more alert game if his role is elevated. Finally, Penn State threw freshman Max Granville into the fire. It’s unlikely that the Nittany Lions would rely on Granville in any more than a situational role, but he’s gotten added reps with Carter not practicing. 

Carter cleans up so much on this defense and requires so much attention when he’s rushing the passer. He’s also been typecast as just a pass rusher, but that hasn’t been the case. It’s beyond obvious to say that the Nittany Lions will take a step back if he’s not full-go, but it’s an eye-opener when you know that Notre Dame will run right that group. Dennis-Sutton and Vanover have to play like they did last week. 

Similarly, on the other defensive line, it can get really thin, real quick for the Fighting Irish. Every body matters at this point, especially with Mills out for the season. Much like Penn State, Notre Dame really only plays three defensive tackles, including Cross. That’s a tough spot to hold up with an ankle injury so the Irish will likely lean upon Gabriel Rubio and Donovan Hinish. Rubio is the bigger of the two and he played well against Georgia as the Bulldogs got nothing going in the run game. Hinish, a Pittsburgh Central Catholic kid, picked up a sack late in the game. Regardless of Cross’ status, Penn State is very aware of all three, as they’re pretty good players. 

Of course, Love is probably the one fans will notice the most while watching. He ran for 1,076 yards and has found the end zone 18 times this season. Needless to say, he’s a big piece of the offense. But he’s not the only back that can be effective for the Irish. Jadarian Price didn’t quite get an equal timeshare, but he has carried 110 times for 720 yards and seven scores. He’s not the receiving threat that Love has been, but he’s capable. If Love can’t go, the Irish will likely lean more on the quarterback run game as they did in the Sugar Bowl with Riley Leonard. So it’s not a one-for-one situation if Price ends up with more carries. 

One note to add here is that freshman Aneyas Williams is just good enough to keep in the back of your mind if you’re a Penn State fan. It’s tough seeing either staff put the ball in the hands of a freshman in that situation, but it’s worth tracking. Williams had 13 catches this year, which is nine more than Price. Six of those have come in the College Football Playoff. 

About that Quarterback Running Game

Count me as one who thinks this should end up being a massive storyline either way on Thursday. The lack of offensive punch from Georgia meant that the Fighting Irish could keep the ball closer to center after going up a couple of scores. It wasn’t a full-blown Penn State-down-the-stretch-in-2020 single wing, but Notre Dame was able to dictate the game with its running game and short passing game. Riley Leonard had a legacy play on 3rd-and-7 with just under six minutes to go, as he took a designed run around the left six and flew to a first down. It was nauseating defending from Georgia, and ended up the back-breaker. 

Leonard doesn’t do anything crazy as a runner. He’s not as athletic as SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, but he probably is what we talked ourselves into Garrett Greene being to open the season. Leonard is a terrific college quarterback with gamer tendencies and a ceiling on his pro potential. He’s also probably going to have to replicate his Sugar Bowl performance to some degree if Love isn’t up to speed. Leonard has also done a nice job of avoiding square contact, which is also key when playing like he does. 

Penn State hasn’t faced a willing running quarterback this season. Jennings decided it was too cold for that and Greene finished with just five yards on 10 carries (two of which were sacks that lost 15 yards). Will Howard had nine carries and finished the game with a 7-yard keeper, but Leonard seems like another animal. The Nittany Lions put a lid on Boise State last week and shouldn’t have to depart all that much from its basic strategy of looking run-first from the opposition. Still, Leonard will give them fits if not accounted for. 

On the other side, Drew Allar’s progression as a runner can’t be overlooked. That stems more from his improved pocket awareness and scrambling ability than designed runs, but he’s not been the statue that we saw in 2023. It seems like we highlight it in every big game, but Allar’s legs can go a long way in opening things up for the Nittany Lions. We don’t expect Penn State to stray much from what they are, but Notre Dame’s defense is an obvious step up from what the Nittany Lions saw in the first two rounds. 

There are so many factors that will contribute to the winning side on Thursday. Leonard’s legs probably carry more weight than Allar’s when talking about offensive responsibility, but I don’t think this will be a game in which only one of the quarterbacks is asked to run. It’s going to be fascinating to see how each side works around it in what could turn out to be a meat grinder of a game, along the lines of what we saw in New Orleans.