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What must Penn State wrestling do in the finals to break the NCAA scoring record after the medal round?

Greg Pickelby:Greg Pickel•03/23/24•

GregPickel

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Penn State coach Cael Sanderson and the Nittany Lions are back in action Sunday.

A successful morning medal round at the 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships has put Penn State in an even better position to possibly break the all-time team scoring record at nationals. Make no mistake, it will be no easy task during Saturday night’s finals. But, the pathways to do so are now both clear and obtainable. After five sessions inside the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo., head coach Cael Sanderson’s team has 155.5 team points. That means it needs 15 points from its six finalists to break the record-holding 170 points from the 1997 Iowa team. How can the Lions reach history to close out this year’s season? We have the various paths they can take below after looking at each matchup.

Finals matchups

141 pounds: No. 2 Beau Bartlett, Penn State vs. No. 1 Jesse Mendez, Ohio State

157 pounds: No. 1 Levi Haines, PSU vs. No. 2 Jacori Teemer, Arizona State

165 pounds: No. 2 Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State vs. No. 3 Davis Carr, Iowa State

174 pounds: No. 9 Carter Starocci, PSU vs. No. 6 Rocco Welsh, Ohio State

197 pounds: No. 1 Aaron Brooks, PSU vs. No. 2 Trent Hidlay, N.C. State

285 pounds: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State vs. No. 10 Lucas Davison, Michigan

The easy path: Crown four (or more) national champions

Each wrestler who wins a finals match by decision earns his team four points. So, if Penn State wins at least four of six, it will get 16 points, which would, of course, push its total to a record-setting 171.5 points. Penn State wants to become the first team to ever have six national champs at one national tournament, of course. It could also become only the second team ever to have five national champs twice if that would happen this year.

With all of that aside, the best path to a scoring record is having at least four national champs.

The more difficult path: Three champs, all with bonus

If Penn State crowns three national champions by decision, it is guaranteed 12 points. That would put it at 167.5 points, or three shy of the record. But, let’s not forget that wrestlers can earn additional team points if they win by bonus points. It’s an extra point for a major decision win, 1.5 for a technical fall triumph, and two for a fall.

Looking at the matchups above, it’s very challenging to predict anyone other than Kerkvliet to get bonus points. That’s why this is the more difficult path. But, there are combinations available. Three by fall would do it. One champ by fall, one by major decision, and one by decision would equal also 15.5 points and the record. Two by technical fall and one by decision would do it, too, by also getting the team to 170.5.

Will Penn State break the record?

Here’s what we wrote this morning, and it still applies ahead of the evening session:

If using the likelihood category of the Likert Scale Examples for Surveys, we put the chances of Penn State breaking the all-time scoring record somewhere between possibly but probably not. But, again, it’s doable. However, a lot must go right.

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