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Penn State

Where is Penn State, and the Lions' offense and defense, in the first ESPN FPI rankings of 2025?

Greg Pickelby:Greg Pickel•06/05/25•

GregPickel

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Penn State quarterback Drew Allar. (Photo credit: Ryan Snyder/BWI)

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is the latest data model to spit out a top 25 that has Penn State in the top five. In fact, it puts the Nittany Lions right at No. 5 in its first version before the 2025 season. Head coach James Franklin’s team, with 21.5 points, trails Texas, which has 28.5 points, as well as Georgia (26.6 points), Ohio State (23.8 points), and Alabama (24.4 points). Oregon, which comes to Beaver Stadium for the annual White Out game, sits at No. 6 with 20.5 points. Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame, and Tennessee round out the top 10 in that order.

Besides the Buckeyes and Ducks, the only other Penn State opponent in FPI’s top 25 is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers sit at No. 24.

“The FPI is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team’s strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes,” ESPN’s Neil Paine writes in explaining how the data for the Footnball Power Index is created. “Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team’s odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title.”

Moving on to a specific look at the offense and defense rankings during this stage of the season, the Penn State attack, which will be in its second year under Andy Kotelnicki’s direction, checks in at No. 6 behind Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and Miami. As for the defense, Jim Knowles’ first unit in blue and white checks in at No. 7 behind the Longhorns, Bulldogs, Crimson Tide, Buckeyes, and Oregon.

More: New Penn State pick is in on the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Last but not least, ESPN’s FPI projects that Penn State is in two of the most anticipated games of the season. Penn State-Ohio State checks in at No. 5. Lions-Ducks is No. 14. The former is in Columbus, of course, while the latter will feature what should be Beaver Stadium’s biggest crowd of the season. That game doubles as the first test for the Lions in 2025 after a weak non-conference schedule. With a win, PSU can cement itself as one of the favorites to win it all this fall and will also put it on a collision course to face the Buckeyes, where both teams should be undefeated, in November.

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