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Where is Penn State football in the first SP+ rankings of 2024, and how many games could it be favored in?

Greg Pickelby:Greg Pickel•02/14/24•

GregPickel

kaytron-allen-penn-state-football-3-on3
Penn State running back Kaytron Allen. (Credit: Steve Manuel | Blue White Illustrated)

Penn State football is a top 10 team in the mind of many media members who recently re-released their too-early top 25 polls following the end of the coaching carousel (we think) and the winter transfer window (we know). The first SP+ projections of 2024 from ESPN’s Bill Connelly agree with them. The data-driven system lists four Big Ten teams in its initial top 10, including the Nittany Lions. For those unaware, Connelly’s metric that ranks each team is made up of a combination of returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history.

Head coach James Franklin’s team checks in at No. 7 in the new SP+ numbers. Georgia is first, followed by Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, and Michigan in the top five. Only Alabama sits ahead of Penn State otherwise, And, the Nittany Lions just out-pointed Peach Bowl foe Ole Miss, which checks in at No. 8. Notre Dame and LSU round out the top 10 in that order.

Where are Penn State opponents in the first SP+ of 2024?

Penn State checks in with a score of 25.6 points. Without factoring in home-field advantage, that number would make it a favorite on the point spread in every game except for its matchup with the Buckeyes. Here is how the early projected point spreads would look based on the data (number before each opponent is the team’s SP+ ranking; 134 teams are ranked):

Aug. 31: PSU (-17.1) at No. 34 West Virginia

Sept. 7: No. 110 Bowling Green at Penn State (-39.3)

Sept. 21: No. 133 Kent State at PSU (-47)

Sept. 28: No. 62 Illinois at Penn State (-26.9)

Oct 5: No. 37 UCLA at PSU (-19.4)

Oct. 12: Penn State (-14.1) at No. 23 USC

Oct. 26: PSU (-14.6) at No. 25 Wisconsin

Nov. 2: No. 2 Ohio State (-4.5) at Penn State

Nov. 9: No. 29 Washington at PSU (-16.4)

Nov. 16: Penn State (-32.3) at No. 86 Purdue

Nov. 23: PSU (-21.4) at No. 41 Minnesota

Nov. 30: No. 45 Maryland at Penn State (-22.1)

BYES: Sept. 14, Oct. 19

The Lions ultimately being a double-digit favorite in every game but one feels hard to believe. But, it should be noted that these rankings will be updated after the spring transfer window closes and again before the first kickoff of the year. There will be more data about all teams then, which will fine-tune things. Either way, the initial SP+ numbers indicate that 2024 could be a very good season for Franklin’s team. But, much work remains to make that a reality.

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