Where will PSU be seeded in the College Football Playoff?

By Nate Bauer

INDIANAPOLIS – The question will be on the minds of college football fans everywhere until Sunday afternoon. The College Football Playoff committee, set to assign its first 12-team field in the sport’s history, will seed its year-ending tournament to crown a national champion next month.

Except, of course, Penn State head coach James Franklin.

In the immediate aftermath of a 45-37 loss to No. 1 Oregon in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday evening, the Nittany Lions’ leader wasn’t in a frame of mind to peek into the deliberations of the committee. Asked whether or not his team had earned the right to host a first-round game, and if he’d be surprised if Penn State didn’t, his response reflected his consistent perspective on the issue.

“Yeah, I’m going to be honest with you, I don’t spend a ton of time on that,” said Franklin. “We literally spent the entire week on Oregon. And for me to sit here and feel like I can understand or predict how those things are going to go when you got all those people in that room and all those personalities, I’m not sure.”

Still, he continued, his expectations for Sunday afternoon’s selection show did include one piece of relative certainty.

“I’m fairly confident that we’re going to be in the playoffs,” said Franklin. “I can speak on that. And I know these guys and myself and the rest of the guys in the locker room will be excited about the opportunity that comes.”

With college football’s regular season and Championship Weekend in the books, these are the most prominent possibilities in play for Penn State.

Penn State win/loss College Football Playoff path

The first reality to indulge is the Nittany Lions’ comparative control of their destiny leading into Saturday night’s tilt. Awarded a guaranteed top four seed, with a bye for the first round, a win would have lifted Penn State to new heights.

With Georgia beating Texas in overtime, a Penn State win would likely have meant a No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. Instead, a loss sends the Nittany Lions into the pool of at-large contenders jockeying for position on Sunday.

That the Nittany Lions went toe-to-toe with the nation’s No. 1 team since the middle of October will be significant. As detailed by Franklin, the same type of performance against the then-No. 3-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes should also be significant in his program’s evaluation.

“Do I think our resumé matches up with anybody in the country? Yeah, I think it does. Again, we lost by one possession to the No. 1 team in the country. And I think earlier in the season we lost to the No. 3 team in the country at the time, if I remember correctly. And a one-possession game as well,” said Franklin. “So I don’t think there’s anybody in the country that’s got that type of resumé in the Big Ten, arguably the best conference in all of college football.”

That significance, however, cannot rise to the same level as a win. Accordingly, Sunday is set up to include interesting deliberations for a committee that has consistently positioned Penn State favorably in its four prior weekly rankings.

The national landscape and its implications

The Nittany Lions and their fans had different rooting interests for different outcomes entering the day on Saturday. Most significantly, the winner of the SEC Championship between Texas and Georgia could figure most heavily in their seeding, win or lose. And, to a lesser extent, Clemson and SMU would impact Penn State in case of a loss, with SMU the more favorable of the options.

In both instances, Penn State got the less-desirable outcome.

Georgia beat Texas in overtime, catapulting the Bulldogs into a guaranteed top-four seed. And, due to that game’s competitiveness, the Longhorns losing 22-19 in overtime, their positioning above Penn State is unlikely to change. Under those assumptions, with Texas relegated to the same at-large status as the Nittany Lions, a best-case scenario would have the Longhorns as the No. 5 seed with Penn State awarded the No. 6 seed.

One pushback to that sentiment for the committee to consider is loss quality, though, when comparing Penn State and Texas directly. While Penn State’s losses were to the Nos. 1 and 3 teams, the Longhorns were shellacked in Austin by then-No. 5 Georgia in October and fell again to now-No. 5 Georgia on Saturday.

The Notre Dame game

At its most simplistic, the committee needs to decide what conference championship participation means. With No. 4-ranked Notre Dame still independent and not in action this weekend, the proposition is how to handle a 1-loss Irish program against Penn State and Texas programs that suffered their second losses of the season on Saturday.

The vehement arguments from the Big Ten and SEC will be straightforward. A team that finished the regular season behind both Texas and Penn State should not advance beyond them without having participated this weekend. Whether that holds is a decision for the committee to make, with arguments certain to come in insisting the Irish as rightful owners of the No. 5 seed.

My guess

For as much politicking and lobbying as is certain to befall the committee, the personalities and judgment that Franklin didn’t venture to understand on Saturday night will make the right call.

To me, that looks like Texas in the No. 5 seed, Penn State at No. 6, and Notre Dame at No. 7.

Regardless of how it shakes out, Franklin insisted his program will have learned from its setbacks this season and grown from them.

“I’m not in that room. We don’t make those decisions,” he said. “We’ll be waiting eagerly to find out who we play and then we’ll take all the necessary strategies and planning to put ourselves and our team in the best position to be successful.”

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