Would Penn State and SMU both be favored to beat Boise State in the quarterfinals?
Penn State meets SMU in the opening round of the College Football Playoff. The six-seed Nittany Lions host the No. 11 Mustangs at Beaver Stadium on Dec. 21 at Noon ET. TNT is televising the game. And, the winner of it advances to face No. 3 Boise State, the Mountain West Conference champion, in a quarterfinal round matchup on Dec. 31 at the Fiesta Bowl in Pheonix, Ariz.
“I watched them a lot more last year when we weren’t playing because Manny Diaz was the DC and a friend of mine,” SMU coach Rhett Lashlee said. “So when they were playing and we weren’t, you’d kind of want to pull for somebody you know. And so I just know the kind of length and speed they had on defense. I know what they do on offense. I know they got a really good quarterback, a big time tight end. And they present a lot of issues with all the different formations and looks and things they do offensively. And then I just know James Franklin’s reputation, just being a consistent winner.”
Penn State is an 8.5-point favorite over the Mustangs at FanDuel and a 9-point favorite at DraftKings. Both sites think each first-round participant will be favored over the Broncos, too, regardless of who wins two Saturdays from now. DraftKings makes PSU a 12.5-point favorite over Boise State for the hypothetical matchup and calls SMU a 5.5-point favorite. FanDuel has the Lions as an 11.5-point favorite and SMU a 6.5-point favorite.
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More: Big Ten referees will not call Penn State-SMU; which conference’s officials will?
So, it’s not exactly a large amount of respect for the only Group of Five team in the field. Yet, that’s also not a surprise. While there is no doubt that the Big Ten and SEC are the most powerful conferences in college football this year, even the ACC has a leg up on the Mountain West. Boise State star running back Ashton Jeanty, who is a Heisman Trophy finalist, will give either defense he faces fits. But, overall, the betting markets deem Penn State and SMU to be much better than one of the teams that earned a bye by clinching its conference’s crown.
In other betting news, Penn State has the fifth-best odds to win the CFP at 5.5-to-1. However, it is favored to make the semifinals at -184, which are the best odds to do so behind only Texas. That’s due to the way the draw worked out, of course, and the fact that PSU would be a double-digit favorite over Boise State is more evidence for those who think the Lions got a dream draw.
