Matchup Preview: Who has the edge?

Purdue vs. Nebraska, from a matchup perspective.

Date/Time: Saturday, September 28, Noon E.T.

Location: Ross-Ade Stadium

Surface: Bermuda Grass

Capacity: 61,441 (sold out)

2024 schedules/records: Purdue 1-2 (0-0 Big Ten), Nebraska 3-1 (0-1 Big Ten)

Series notes: Since joining the Big Ten in 2011, Nebraska and Purdue have enjoyed a competitive series. The all-time series is deadlocked, with each side taking six contests. This will mark the 12th straight season with a Purdue vs. Nebraska meeting, dating back to 2013. A season ago, Nebraska downed Purdue 31-14 in a meeting between two first-year coaches, Matt Rhule and Ryan Walters. In games played in Ross-Ade Stadium, Purdue holds a 4-3 advantage.

TV: Peacock (PxP Jac Collinsworth, Analyst Michael Robinson, Sidelines Caroline Pineda)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Mark Herrmann, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Nebraska -10, O/U 47

Weather: High in the mid-70s with a chance of rain

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Nebraska Roster | Nebraska Game Notes

Pregame: First Look: Nebraska | First and 10: Nebraska at Purdue | Purdue’s Ryan Walters hears outside noise, but he’s not listening | The 3-2-1: Time is now for Purdue | Opponent View: Nebraska | Number Crunching: Purdue-Nebraska week | Purdue’s offensive identity: Hand ball to Devin Mockobee | In the Huddle: Cole Brevard |

Nebraska running game versus Purdue against the run

At just over four yards per carry, the Huskers put a respectable run game on the field, averaging 140 yards per game. Dante Dowdell leads the team with 51 carries at five yards per touch, while Rahmir Johnson provides a different look. Purdue will need to keep an eye on Emmett Johnson, too. Though he’s only taken 13 handoffs this year, he averages north of nine yards per carry.

Nebraska will get creative in the run game with jet sweep action, but don’t expect quarterback Dylan Raiola to look to run much. The talented true freshman enters with a sack-adjusted net of -38 yards on the season. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield has balanced the run and pass game early on, but will that change given Purdue’s struggles against the run?

Over the past two weeks, Purdue’s run defense has allowed 703 yards. Both Notre Dame and Oregon State eclipsed the 300-yard mark on the ground, exploiting Purdue’s inability to contain the edges. Last week, Oregon State used jet sweeps and speed options to run past Purdue on the outside. After holding Indiana State scoreless, the past two opponents found the end zone in the run game a combined ten times. Even worse: Pro Football Focus credits Purdue’s defense with 37 missed tackles in just three contests. Walters floated the thought of re-visiting the defensive schematic approach following last week’s loss. Is there anything Purdue can do to force opponents to throw the football?

Nebraska passing game versus Purdue against the pass

Raiola came to Nebraska as a five-star recruit, ranked the third-best quarterback in the 2024 class in On3’s Industry Composite. A Cornhusker legacy, Nebraska fans viewed his commitment as a sign of better days as Rhule continues rebuilding the proud program. While Raiola did miss a throw to give Nebraska a late lead in the loss to Illinois, he’s largely lived up to the hype. Through four games, he averages 241 yards per game on a 72% completion rate with eight touchdowns to just two picks.

A pair of transfers lead the way on the outside for Nebraska: Texas transfer Isaiah Neyor and Wake Forest transfer Jahmal Banks. Neyor gives Nebraska a deep threat, averaging over 17 yards per reception with four touchdowns on the young season. Satterfield does involve the running backs in the passing game, as Rahmir Johnson ranks fourth on the team with 12 receptions. Expect a mix of safe passes with some opportunities for Raiola to demonstrate his arm talent as Nebraska tries to keep Purdue’s defense off balance.

Each of Purdue’s first three opponents entered with a clear focus on running the ball. While Nebraska will undoubtedly look to force Purdue to stop the run, it could present the first credible passing attack Purdue faces this season. In the first three games, opponents only attempted a total of 54 passes on the Boilermaker defense. This contributes to a statistic Purdue hopes to change, as the Boilermakers enter week five as the only Power Four program yet to force a turnover.

Purdue could see the return of Nyland Green, as Walters sounded optimistic that the Georgia transfer will make his season debut after a fall camp foot injury sidelined him for the first three games. If Purdue can bolster its coverage on the back end, it can benefit even more from a pass rush that’s generated eight sacks on the season. However, Purdue’s run defense will need to improve for the pass defense to matter.

Purdue running game versus Nebraska against the run

The lone bright side of Purdue’s trip to Corvallis? The running backs ran wild, racking up 263 rushing yards. Devin Mockobee cleared the 2,000-yard mark for his career, adding another bullet point to his impressive transformation from walk-on to impact player. His 168 yards against Oregon State came just ten short of his career-best (178 vs. Nebraska in 2022). Reggie Love continues to show why Purdue coveted him out of the portal, too. He averages a cool six yards per carry with a pair of touchdown runs.

In his limited scramble opportunities, Hudson Card does keep the defense honest. His 2nd-and-23rd conversion on a scramble helped get Purdue out of the shadows of its own goalposts against Oregon State. Still, Purdue must balance his rushing ability with exposure to injury risk. As a whole, Purdue enters conference play averaging 6.4 yards per carry and 183 yards per game on the ground.

Nebraska comes into Saturday with a top-25 run defense in the nation, allowing opponents to run for just 94 yards per game. Even more impressive, Husker opponents average a mere three yards per carry and have yet to run for a touchdown in 2024. Defensive coordinator Tony White runs a 3-3-5 approach, and when he can stop the run with six defenders in the box, the defense becomes lethal. Missed tackles have haunted the Blackshirt defense early on in 2024, something the Cornhuskers will need to clean up ahead of Saturday’s matchup. Opposing teams using quarterback runs to attack the edges saw success against this defense in recent weeks. Will Purdue look to run Card more to take advantage of this potential weak spot?

Purdue passing game versus Nebraska against the pass

What’s wrong with Purdue’s passing game? The program that touts itself as the “Cradle of Quarterbacks” suddenly looks hapless when dropping back to pass. It hit rock bottom in Corvallis, as Card completed just seven of 17 attempts for a shocking 56 yards. Only twice since 2000 have the Boilermakers thrown for fewer yards. The offensive line did a better job protecting the trigger man, but Purdue simply couldn’t put anything together through the air.

While Max Klare continues to prove himself as a dynamic weapon as an athletic tight end, Purdue’s situation at wide receiver looks dire. Jahmal Edrine missed the Oregon State game and is projected to miss the next few weeks with a knee injury. CJ Smith’s timetable for return remains in jeopardy from a hamstring issue. Purdue’s wide receivers caught four passes for a total of 13 yards in Saturday’s loss. For Purdue to compete in Big Ten play, it must see a drastic uptick in the effectiveness of the passing game.

Illinois moved the ball well through the air on Nebraska, but the Blackshirt defense’s numbers against the pass remain stout on the season. Opponents complete 61% of passes for less than 200 yards per game with a six-to-four touchdown-to-interception ratio. Nebraska does a good job keeping the ball in front of it, as it surrenders around six yards per pass attempt. The vast majority of the Nebraska defense from last season returned for 2024. What did Purdue do in the passing game in Lincoln last October? It completed 17 of 33 passes for just 99 yards. Has Purdue improved enough to flip that script, especially in a game where rain could present an issue?

Special teams

Three games into his freshman season, Spencer Porath still awaits his first field goal attempt. He’s knocked through all 11 extra point tries, but the Boilermakers have not yet sent the field goal unit onto the field. Perhaps no newcomer started his time at Purdue better than Keelan Crimmins, whose arrival needed to create an improved punt game. He’s averaging 46 yards per punt, providing consistency that Purdue desperately needed. In the return game, Dillon Thieneman remains a weapon on punt duties after another nice return last week.

Nebraska does not appear committed to a kicker. John Hohl took over for Tristan Alfano last week and made one of his two tries. The Cornhuskers brought alum and former NFL kicker Brett Maher to Lincoln recently to try and help improve the kicking game. Punter Brian Buschini averages an impressive 50 yards per punt, and returner Jacory Barney can make defenders miss on kickoffs.

Intangibles

Purdue felt good following a season-opening dismantling of FCS Indiana State, but after two non-competitive losses, it desperately needs positive momentum. Purdue can ill-afford for its fanbase to check out of the season in October, but the trends don’t favor the Boilermakers. Additionally, Purdue will play coming off of an abnormal week. The team didn’t arrive back to West Lafayette until sunrise on Sunday morning. Will Purdue play like a team looking to save its season, or will Purdue look crushed after back-to-back disappointing showings?

In year two of the Rhule era, Nebraska looks the part of an improved team. But after years of losing close games, last week’s overtime loss felt familiar to Cornhusker fans. Losses like the previous week have torpedoed Nebraska seasons in recent memory, so the Huskers must pay careful attention not to fall victim to a domino effect.