Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Fresno State

This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2023 Fresno State Bulldogs.

Prior Week Recap

The column had a relatively average year last year.  However, this year, I expect there to be some real trials and tribulations.  With Brohm gone (The Column Montra: Fade as favorite, hammer as dog), we go back to the drawing board staring down the barrel of uncertainty.  Coach Ryan Walters has never been a head coach before, and Purdue has a new OC and QB.  There are a LOT of moving parts.  I would caution unit size early, until we have an idea of what to expect.   

2023 Future Bets

Purdue win total: Over 5.5 (+145), Under 5.5 (-165)

Hudson Card Heisman (+15000)

Devin Mockobee Doak Walker Award (+20000)

Purdue to win the CFP (+30000)

Purdue to win the Big Ten (+10000)

Purdue to win the Big Ten West (+2200)

2023 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 0-0 ATS, Overs are 0-0. 

Fresno State: 0-0 ATS,  Overs are 0-0.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 9/1/23:

Current spread: Purdue -4 (Opened Purdue -5.5).

Moneyline: Purdue -185, Fresno State +154

1H Spread: Purdue -2, O/U 24.5

Over/Under: 47 (Opened 49.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 66% on Purdue, 73% on over

Money: 48% on Purdue, 47% on over

Executive Summary

There is not a whole lot of trend analysis since this is Walters’ first game as a head coach.  The money seems to be backing the under and Fresno State.  The public seems to have a small backing for Fresno, as they are a trending underdog.  Most people are failing to believe in Purdue due to the massive team overhaul.  I expect slow starts due to the distance traveled for Fresno, combined with two new Quarterbacks and what should be two good defenses.  I believe in Hudson Card more than I believe in Mikey Keene.  When in doubt, back the better Quarterback.

Trend Analysis for Fresno State

Due to the nature of Walter’s tenure as a head coach, there are not any real trends to analyze.  To combat this, I will review trends from a defensive standpoint during his time at Illinois.  For Fresno State, Jeff Tedford was the coach from 2017-2019, and is on his second stint that began in 2022.  We will analyze both periods of Fresno State under Tedford.

· Purdue is 1-2 against the Mountain West.  This includes losses to Hawaii in 2006 and Nevada in 2019, and a win over Nevada in 2016 (the second to last win Darrell Hazell would have at Purdue).

· Ryan Walters was 2-1 against the Mountain West as a defensive coordinator.  Missouri beat Wyoming 40-13 in 2018, but then lost to Wyoming 37-31 in 2019.  In 2022, Illinois beat Wyoming 38-6 (would have been nice to have one Mountain West game that was not Wyoming). 

· In games where Illinois was a favorite last year, The Walters led Illini defense gave up an average of 10.125 points per game (31 to Purdue was the most, while shutting out Chattanooga).  

· Results of the Debuts of the last 5 Purdue Head Coaches

Jeff Brohm: Louisville 35, Purdue 28

Darrell Hazell: Cincinnati 42, Purdue 7

Danny Hope: Purdue 52, Toledo 31

Joe Tiller: Toledo 36, Purdue 22

Jim Colletto: Purdue 49, Eastern Michigan 3

· Fresno State is 5-13 straight up all time against the Big Ten.  The only school in which the Bulldogs have a winning record?  2-0 against Illinois.

· Fresno State under Jeff Tedford is 9-4 ATS as an away underdog.

· Fresno State is 10-8-1 ATS against non-conference opponents under Jeff Tedford, but Fresno was 1-4 in 2022.

· Under Tedford, the total has gone over 5 times in 13 games when Fresno State plays as an away underdog.

· The over 9-10 in Fresno State non-conference games since Tedford has been the coach.  In 2022, the over was 1-4.

· Since Tedford has been at Fresno, the Bulldogs are 3-1 in season openers (66-0 over UIW Cardinals, 79-13 over Idaho, a loss 31-23 to USC, and a 35-7 win over Cal Poly.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Hello, My Name is ____________.  The transfer portal has certainly altered the nature of the college football offseason, but even that notion fails to properly address the overhaul and change within the Purdue football program.  A completely new coaching staff, a massive roster overhaul, and even a renovated stadium, this figures to be a COMPLETELY different team than what we have been used to the past couple of seasons.  With so much uncertainty surrounding the upcoming season, it becomes very difficult, at least for game one, to properly handicap.

·Body Clocks.  As a crow flies, Fresno, CA is roughly 1782.5 miles from West Lafayette, IN with a three hour time difference.  The Fresno State football team will be playing a real football game at 9 am local time.  Fresno reportedly arrived in Indiana on Thursday, but is that enough time for the Fresno State players’ body clocks to adjust?  How much will traveling take a toll?

· A-Train.  Mike Alstott has been named an honorary captain for the first home game.  Alstott, who was at Purdue before any of the current players were alive, will likely give the pump-up speech pregame.  One can only hope enough current players have seen Mike put countless defenders into the ground while wearing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform.  Maybe we see a huge Mockabee game with Alstott looking on.

· Home Sweet Home.  The other talking point of the offseason: stadium renovations.  While Ross-Ade is largely the same, this will be a different stadium than most of the returning players are used to.  Will this play a role?  Probably not.  Maybe the exit out of Tiller Tunnel has the players a little more juiced to open and we could see a hot start.  The student section and band change is certainly significant, and I will be curious to see if this changes anything on the field.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  The numbers are a little wonky as I imagine many bettors are staying away from this game.  There does not seem to be high betting volume, so a big bet can skew numbers.  This game should be bet heavily tomorrow morning, so make sure to check spread movement prior to kick.  Of note, we see the spread has come down a couple points toward Fresno, while the total has come down a couple points too.  While the line moves have occurred, we have seen a lot of bets on Purdue and the over, but the money has stayed on Fresno and the Under.  There is a school of thought that by taking Purdue spread or the Over, one is getting a discount, since the original line had both of these numbers higher than the current listing.  The bet % on Purdue is concerning, but the money being more so on Fresno is reassuring if you’re a Purdue backer.  Lastly, because of the disparity in bet percentage and money, it looks like the sharp backers may be on the under and Fresno since so much more money is on those two bets as opposed to the total number of bets.  EDGE: Fresno Spread, Under.

Trends: As disclosed above, it is virtually impossible to rely on trends here given the head coaching debut of Ryan Walters.  Tedford is decent against the spread in non-conference games but has struggled to beat Big Ten teams outright (unless, of course, you are Illinois).  The only consistent trend from Tedford taking Fresno back over, and keep in mind this is a small sample size, the over struggled in non-conference games with Tedford, and that was with a potential NFL QB last year.  Now, that could be Vegas praying on a public overreaction of the Fresno offense, or it could be a real trend for this team.  We will see.  EDGE: Under, but no Trend for a side due to the lack of trends for Walters.

Situation:  Situationally, this is a very interesting game.  Fresno State is coming in as a fairly trending underdog pick.  Fresh off a Mountain West Championship and a bowl win over Washington State, Fresno has solidified themselves as a legitimate non-power five threat.  Purdue is coming off a high-achieving season which saw the Boilers play in the Big Ten Championship.  However, as discussed ad nauseam, this is a completely different team and it would be difficult to pull much from last year to apply a gambling perspective for this season.   Both schools have a transfer QB at helm, while Purdue has more changes throughout with the coaching staff.  Purdue does seem to be slightly underestimated by the public, with Fresno being a well known underdog and Purdue seemingly “rebuilding”.  Purdue rolls in a new defensive identity that should look to cash in some unders, but the air raid offense with NCAA Football 2009 legend Graham Harrell should threaten.  Given the nature of two transfer QB’s paired with a defensive minded HC and Fresno traveling across the country, the under seems ideal to the public, and may be worth a fade on that notion.     EDGE: Slight to Purdue, Over.

Total Analysis:  This spread has consistently hovered between 3.5 and 4.  Every time the spread drops to 3.5, it seems money is coming in on Purdue forcing the sportsbooks to raise the number back to 4.  4 is still a football number (common margin of victory), albeit not as strong as 3.  If you are going to take Purdue, I would advise getting the 3.5, if not 3.  The books clearly do not want to give Purdue -3 given the consistency on 3.5 and 4.  If enough money comes in on Fresno, does the line move down?  Probably.  May be worth a wait until Saturday morning to see if morning money forces books to -3.  The juice may not be worth it either way.  The last couple nights have shown some transfer QBs really struggle with new teams, and it would not shock me to see Purdue and Fresno get off to slow starts offensively.  Hudson Card should be the best player on the field, but Fresno returns enough defensively to make this a grind out slugfest.  If Fresno continues to be a trendy pick, and it seems that way based on the number dropping, Purdue retains some value.  The constant hovering around 4 has me convinced Vegas knows something.  From a personal standpoint, I was in Cincinnati for the Hazell opener, and I was at Lucas Oil for the Brohm opener.  Brohm covered a 21 point spread, Hazell lost by 35 as a favorite.  Let’s hope Coach Walters is more of a Brohm than a Hazell, for a whole slew of reasons.

Prediction:  Purdue wins 24-20.

Official Plays: 1 Unit Purdue -3.5.  1 Unit Under 47 (would accept juice to go down to 45.5).  I will take the juice or shop lines.  It feels too safe to go under.  The value is on the over, but I cannot get the Thursday night games out of my head.  I expect a slow start from both teams, both due to Fresno body clocks and the new QB’s for each team.  1H under may be the play too.  I do not believe in Fresno’s skill positions enough, but I worry about them winning the battles up front with a beat up Purdue offensive line.

Bonus Bets:  FanDuel (and sometimes DraftKings) offer player props.  My personal favorite bets are the first touchdown scorer.  These are all about value.  I like Deion Burks at +950 and Hudson Card at +1900.  Favorite bet of the weekend… TCU stomps Coach Prime.  

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -4 against Fresno State meaning a sportsbook would expect Fresno State to lose by 4 points.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4 or Fresno State +4. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Fresno State by 3, Purdue has won the game, but Fresno State has covered.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.