Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Illinois

Covering The Tracks: Illinois

Week 5 Recap

The column goes 1-1* with Purdue failing to cover and the total going over as Wisconsin hit the total by themselves.  Throwing in the asterisk (because I need the moral victory) since once again, the spread moved toward Purdue on Saturday, and Wisconsin covered easily, as discussed.  As a general rule going forward, if all the money is on Team A, and the spread moves toward Purdue the day of the game… probably bet Team A.  Prop bets go 0-fer for the first time this year, but still extremely positive overall.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 10/11/24:

Current spread: Purdue +22.5 (Opened Purdue 15.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +1060, Illinois -1600

1H Spread: Purdue +12.5, O/U 24.5

Over/Under: 48.5 (Opened 48.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 30% on Purdue, 65% on over

Money: 22% on Purdue, 58% on over

Executive Summary

Ryan Walters, Kevin Kane, and Reggie Love return to play Illinois in Champaign for the first time since joining the Boilermakers.  Purdue has not lost in Champaign since 2010.  Similar to the last 4 weeks, the public money is all over Purdue’s opponent, which has caused this spread to really move toward Illinois.  The Illini have been incredible ATS when they have a rest advantage, which is the case here.  Both teams have massive games next week.  If the spread moves toward Purdue on Saturday, probably the play to take Illinois.  There has just been too much money put on Illinois, and eventually, Purdue is going to cover a game.  Walters is emotionally invested in this one, so why not? 

Trend Analysis for Illinois

· Purdue is 2-4 ATS as an away underdog under Coach Ryan Walters.

· Purdue is 3-8 ATS against conference opponents under Walters.

· Purdue is 4-7 ATS after a loss under Walters.

· The over is 2-3-1 when Purdue is an away underdog under Walters.

· The over is 6-4-1 when Purdue has played a conference opponent under Walters.

· The over is 7-3-1 the week after a Purdue loss under Walters.

· Illinois is 5-9-2 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Bret Bielema.

· Illinois is 17-12-0 ATS against conference opponents under Bielema.

· Illinois is 9-1 ATS with a rest advantage under Bielema.

· The over is 7-9 when Illinois is a home favorite under Bielema.

· The over is 11-16-2 when Illinois plays a conference opponent under Bielema.

· The over is 3-7  when Illinois has a rest advantage under Bielema.

Miscellaneous Factors

· The Return of Ryan Walters.  Walters makes his first return to Champaign, Illinois since taking over as head coach of Purdue.  Purdue played maybe their most impressive game of the 2023 against Illinois when the Illini came to West Lafayette, but obviously circumstances are much different this time around.  Walters has always put a focus on showing up in this game (obviously), so maybe this time will be no different.

· Card Declined.  News broke Friday morning that starting Purdue QB Hudson Card will not be playing against Illinois on Saturday.  How will this impact lines?  Not much.  Upon the news breaking, the spread moved approximately .5-1 point depending on which book you use.  Ryan Browne started against Northwestern last year in a pretty forgettable performance going 12-16 with 104 yards and 2 interceptions.  He did, however, rush for 85 yards and that should be the biggest difference for Purdue without Card.       

· Pop the Champaign.  Champaign, IL and Memorial Stadium have been pretty good to the Boilers over the past 14 ish years.  The last time the Boilers lost to Illinois in Champaign?  2010, when Sean Robinson threw for about 55 yards in a 44-10 loss.  To put it bluntly, even Darrell Hazell won in Champaign (thanks in part to Akeem Hunt and Raheem Mostert running wherever they wanted to and an OT win in 2016).  

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  For the fourth straight week in a row, sportsbooks took on massive money for Purdue’s opponents all week.  Then, the day of the game, we have seen the spread move toward Purdue late.  This, at first blush, makes no sense because so much of the money is on the opposition, you would expect the spread to move that way as well to limit book liability.  The only explanation is a surge of late money pouring on Purdue the day of.  Who the hell would do that?  As things stand, once again, a significant majority of the money is on Illinois.  If that spread moves toward Purdue tomorrow, it is Illinois, and probably Illinois by 35.  With that being said, the spread has moved toward Illinois throughout the week, which is normal movement given the amount of money on the Illini.  People are starting to catch onto the lucrative cash cow that is fading Purdue football, so at a certain point, you would think Vegas would overinflate the spread so much to cover their behind from a liability standpoint.  On the totals, we see a slight sharp advantage with the under.  While a majority of money is on the over, there is slightly more money on the under than bets on the under, suggesting that some sharps may be making larger wagers on the under.  The total has also been sitting right under that football number of 49, begging people to take the over (although, this did not work out in our favor for ISU).  EDGE: Purdue (I know, I know), Under

Trends: One of the few trends Purdue has going for it is the continued success the program has had in Champaign.  Additionally, Illinois has struggled as a home favorite ATS under Bielema.  Outside of that, the trends are pretty damning.  Illinois has been incredible ATS under Bielema with a rest advantage, which is the case here.  Illinois has been fairly good ATS in Big Ten play, while Purdue has been the opposite.  To me, the trends really highlight that when Illinois has extra time off, they are really able to construct a great defensive gameplan.  The over has been horrible when Illinois has come off a bye, and yet, Illinois is covering as well.  Part of this could be attributed to Walters’ time at Illinois.  Hard to defensively gameplan for a QB with one start though.   When Purdue is both playing a conference opponent and coming off a loss, the over has been relatively profitable.  However, playing a conference opponent for Purdue has typically meant under.    EDGE: Illinois, Under.

Situation:  Interesting situational spot for both teams here.  Purdue is coming in as almost the unanimously crowned worst P4 team in college football.  People have seen the metrics which might paint in a worse picture than we thought possible, which is saying something.  Purdue is coming off one of the most embarrassing defeats after getting massacred by an average (by their historical standards) Wisconsin team.  To make things better, Purdue has a Friday date night with probably (depending on the outcome of the O$U game tomorrow) top 5 Oregon.  Can Purdue afford to look ahead?  Of course not.  That would be silly.  On the flip side, Illinois comes off a bye week with a bad taste in their mouth after a 14 point loss to Penn State.  Illinois has Michigan next week in what should be a top 25 showdown.  Look ahead spot for Illinois?  Maybe, but I do not foresee this team overlooking an opportunity to send a message to Walters, especially after last year.  Your one hope for Purdue might be that Bielema and Walters still have a pretty good relationship, and Bielema takes it upon himself to not embarrass his former DC.  From a total standpoint, both these offenses, especially with Ryan Browne, are lackluster on the scoreboard.  I am surprised how many people are on the over, but this could just be an indictment of Purdue’s defense more than anything.  Situationally, I would have expected the public to ride the under, but the numbers suggest a difference of perception.  EDGE: Purdue, Push.

Total Analysis:  I read a story once from a casino worker about how the saddest thing he ever saw on a shift was a guy at a roulette table who lost everything betting black 16 times in a row.  The guy’s logic being, “well, it cannot keep being red,” as he kept betting more and more each time on black.  Turns out, after a historic run, it can, in fact, keep being red thanks to the statistical nature of independent events.  Maybe Purdue is my roulette black.  However, spreads are not so much left up to chance.  Once again, if this number moves toward Purdue Saturday, I will be taking Illinois.  In the interim, the contrarian in me, as painful as it is, currently would take Purdue spread.  If Purdue just does not beat themself, which is a tough task lately (turnovers and penalties), they should be able to run the ball well enough to keep this under 22.  I do think both teams run the ball frequently which should shorten the game and give the under a real shot.

Prediction:  Illinois wins 31-17.

Official Plays: 1 Unit Purdue +22.5, 1 Unit 48.5.

Bonus Bets:  No TD props up on any book right now.  If they do come out, Reggie Love to score a TD.  Illinois has been sack prone, and the first TD last year was the Purdue defense.  If ever there was a game for Purdue to generate pressure… and force a defensive touchdown, it is Saturday.

Welcome to the 2024 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2024 Illinois Fighting Illini.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Illinois by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Illinois Roster | Illinois Game Notes