Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Indiana

Covering The Tracks: IU
Welcome to the 2023 12th-edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of
the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that
Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces
of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us. Whether you choose to dabble
in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the
Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to
preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary
at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should
this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I
certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For
those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet
with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc). Disclaimer for those who do gamble:
make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can
afford to lose. For this week, we look at the 2023 IU Hoosiers.

Prior Week Recap

In what I will admittedly call an excuse, Column goes 0-2 last week played largely in part by the
late scratch by Hudson Card. I still believe Purdue wins that game last week with Card at the
helm, but we will never know. Onto the Hoosiers.

2023 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 4-7 ATS, Overs are 6-5.
IU: 6-5 ATS, Overs are 7-4.

Betting Numbers
Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 11/24/23:
Current spread: Purdue -4.5 (Opened Purdue -2.5).
Moneyline: Purdue -180, IU +150
1H Spread: Purdue -2.5, O/U 26.5
Over/Under: 54 (Opened 50)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 55% on Purdue, 38% on over
Money: 56% on Purdue, 88% on over

Executive Summary

The Battle for the Oaken Bucket pits two teams exactly where everyone expected them… 3-8.
We learned last week that a healthy Hudson Card can really give this offense a chance. After the
gauntlet struggles in October against OSU, Nebraska, and Michigan, Card torched Minnesota
and finally had the offense humming prior to injury. His return is crucial. The public seems to
slightly be backing the Boilers, but not by much. We are seeing almost identical money and bet
percentages on spread. The total screams low volume bet amounts to me. The extreme
difference in bet and money percentage likely tells us that there have not been many bets, so one
big one can really skew percentages. IU has looked actually decent the last 4 weeks. A 9 point
loss to Penn State at Penn State, win over Wisconsin, OT loss to Illinois and a last minute loss to
MSU. They could easily be 5-6 and their record ATS speaks similarly to that. Tom Allen’s IU
teams are 0-5 ATS against Purdue.

Trend Analysis for IU
·Purdue is 2-4 ATS as a home team under Coach Walters.
·Purdue is 1-1 ATS as a favorite under Coach Walters (Purdue closed as an underdog last week).
· The over is 4-2 when Purdue is a home team under Coach Walters.
· The over is 2-0 when Purdue is a favorite under Coach Walters.
· IU is 2-2 ATS on the road this season.
· The over is 4-0 in IU away games this season.
· IU is 11-13 ATS under Tom Allen as an away underdog this season.
· The Over is 15-9 when Tom Allen’s IU teams are an away underdog
Miscellaneous Factors

· The Bucket. Obviously, this is a rivalry game, but this is the first bucket game for Hudson
Card and Coach Walters. This will be Tom Allen’s sixth as the head coach of the Hoosiers.
Coach Walters is not an Indiana guy, and has no ties to the state. He has earned the benefit of
the doubt, and one can only hope he has developed an appreciation for the rivalry and magnitude
of this game, even with both teams at 3-8. Each team would love to go into the offseason with a
better season than its rival. Ryan Walters had Purdue looking like a well oiled machine against
Illinois, but that was a rivalry game for him on a personal level. Will he be able to apply that
energy to this game? I think so.
· Give Hudson Card his flowers. The news this week suggests Hudson Card will play Saturday.
Say what you want about Hudson’s play this year, but last week we saw how important he is to
this team and the offense. I have zero doubt Purdue wins last week with him healthy and
playing. It has become evident to me that Hudson has largely played well, and his struggles
were under the microscope playing two of the best teams in the country. If he comes back and
beats IU, he should have all the fan support he could want heading into next year, with hopefully
an improved O-Line.
· Happy Trails, Tom Allen? One of the biggest rumblings across the state this weekend will be
whether or not this is Tom Allen’s last game as the head coach of IU football. After the magic
that was the Hoosiers’ 2020 Covid Season, IU has shown that 2020 was an exception to the
norm, rather than the display of progress in the program. This will be the third straight year IU
will not go bowling while notching 2 wins in 2021 and 4 wins in 2022. A loss tomorrow would
be an average of 3 wins per season since that 2020 season. This could go one of two ways, in
my opinion. Either, the players see the writing on the wall and give it their all one last time for
the coach, or, the end is in sight, and mentally they have checked out. The results the previous 4
weeks lead me to believe we will see a pretty motivated IU team.
Gambling Analysis

Numbers: Purdue spread has shot up pretty quickly in the last couple days. After holding
steady at -3 almost all week, we are seeing -4.5 across almost every book. We are seeing a slight
public edge to Purdue at 55% of money on the Boilers, but these are some of the more balanced
numbers we have seen all year. The spread rising towards Purdue makes sense to maybe get
some IU money back. The total is interesting. As mentioned in the summary, the large
difference in percentages suggests one big bet to skew. In past games with a total skew of this
magnitude, the side with the skew has actually performed pretty well. EDGE: slight to IU
spread, Over.
Trends: Maybe the most clarity we have gotten on a trend all year… the over. IU overs have
been a cash cow when they take the road as underdogs, cashing 100% of the time this season.
Meanwhile, Purdue has shown the ability to put up points at home (with the exception of Ohio
State, largely). From a side perspective, Tom Allen has never covered against Purdue. Would
the Hoosiers have covered in 2020? Maybe, but who cares. If this is his last game, does he
finally cover? Or does he go out like Archie Miller with his 0. Tom Allen beat Purdue one time, as a seven point favorite, in overtime. There is not much data on Purdue’s performance as a
favorite under Walters, but Purdue has covered in its last 7 against the Hoosiers. EDGE:
Purdue, Over.
Situation: Purdue comes off one of the most frustrating games in recent memory. Shooting
themselves in the foot is a severe understatement, as Purdue shot the entire foot clean off with
mistake after mistake. Goal line struggles reared its ugly head again as Purdue failed to convert
goal to go situations. It is hard to put much stock in last week with two of your best players hurt,
but prior to the game, Purdue had looked competent. IU, regardless of record, has played some
good football in the last month. A 9 point loss in Happy Valley is never a bad loss, and they are
two plays away from a win against Illinois and MSU. IU’s offense has not been potent, with the
exception of Illinois, but the defense has held its own keeping games in the 20’s. There is not
much of a situational spot here for either team with both sitting at 3-8 and no chance of bowling.
EDGE: None.
Total Analysis: Purdue wins, IU covers, total goes over. Tom Allen rallies his team to play
well, but not enough as Purdue gets the win. The line movement to 4.5 tells me Vegas was not
comfortable with the liability it had on Purdue at -3, so I could see a middling of 4 here. The
trends scream over, and if Card plays, I like Purdue’s chance to find the endzone multiple times.
Prediction: Purdue wins 31-27.
Official Plays: 3 Units on Purdue ML. 1 Unit IU +4.5. 1 Unit on Over 54.
Bonus Bets: 31-27 Purdue exact score +15000. Garrett Miller LOVES to score in Ross Ade.
Over .5 receiving touchdowns at +245.

Welcome to the 2023 twelfth edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of
the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that
Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces
of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us. Whether you choose to dabble
in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the
Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to
preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary
at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should
this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I
certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For
those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet
with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc). Disclaimer for those who do gamble:
make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can
afford to lose. For this week, we look at the 2023 IU Hoosiers.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped
line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the
sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The
favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The

spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example,
Purdue is currently -1 against IU meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 1 point.
It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business. So a spread may not
necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at
what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting
their exposure to a big loss.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a
sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will
range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet
$11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50.
To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds +
100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5
or IU +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats IU by 1, Purdue has won the game, but
Purdue did not cover.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright.
Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big
favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to
win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a
game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they
believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long
run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very
useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with
gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager.
Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are
normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would
need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is
losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.