Covering the Tracks: Purdue-IU

A look at Saturday night’s Purdue-Indian matchup in Bloomington from a gambling perspective.

FINALLY.  The 1-1 streak is over as the column goes 2-0, just 3 MSU points away from nailing the exact score.  Purdue arguably should have at least sent this into overtime and really challenged the over, but receivers who cannot catch the ball in clutch moments made that a pipe dream.  Can the column repeat a 2-0 performance two weeks in a row?  

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00 am on 11/29/24:

Current spread: Purdue +29 (Opened Purdue +25.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +2200, IU -4500

1H Spread: Purdue +17.5, O/U 30.5

Over/Under: 57 (Opened 56.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 26% on Purdue, 56% on over

Money: 16% on Purdue, 52% on over

Executive Summary

Majority of bettors are all over IU in what many view as a massive spot for IU to avenge their OSU loss last week.  Further worth your consideration, IU is on the fringe of the playoff after the thumping the Hoosiers took in Columbus last week and would certainly feel better with a large margin of victory of the Boilers.  There is a slight public lean to the over, but not much.  From a trend standpoint, IU has been an ATS wagon this season covering in all but two of their games.  The over has also been fairly consistent for IU too.  Purdue is coming off a game where they showed some second half life, but still failed to win a game they probably should have.  The season will end for the Boilers on Saturday night, but do they have any pride left?

Trend Analysis for IU

· Purdue is 4-5 ATS as an away underdog under Coach Ryan Walters.

· Purdue is 5-12 ATS against conference opponents under Walters.

· Purdue is 6-11 ATS after a loss under Walters.

· The over is 3-5-1 when Purdue is an away underdog under Walters.

· The over is 9-7-1 when Purdue has played a conference opponent under Walters.

· The over is 10-6-1 after a Purdue loss under Walters.

· IU is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Curt Cignetti.

· IU is 6-2 ATS against conference opponents under Cignetti.

· The over is 1-4 in the last 5 visits Purdue has taken to Bloomington.

· The over is 4-3 when IU is a home favorite under Cignetti.

· The over is 6-2 when IU plays a conference opponent under Cignetti..

Miscellaneous Factors

· Playoffs?  You kiddin’ me? Playoffs?!.  What could end up playing a massive factor in the ATS decision Saturday night could very well be the CFB playoffs.  How ironic when one of the teams playing has yet to beat an FBS opponent.  IU enters the Bucket game ranked 10th by the committee and on the cusp of making the first ever 12 team playoff.  A big loss at Ohio State last week certainly hurt the Hoosiers’ odds, especially given their lack of a signature win this season (swap Louisville for Western Illinois again you cowards).  With that being said, IU will likely need to earn some brownie points with the committee Saturday night (pending some help from some other teams losing), and you know Cignetti is aware of this.  All of this to say, if IU has a chance to run this thing up, they certainly will.  The foot will not come off the gas.  On the flip side, this is a massive look ahead spot for IU.  The playoff is likely a certainty, will the excitement get to the Hoosiers?  

· End of an Era?  Saturday night could potentially be Walters’ last game as the head of the Purdue football program.  While there are some reports he could return, it would shock no one if this is the last we see Saturday.  How does that impact gambling?  Some of these players came to Purdue with the intent  to play for Walters and sure have developed a connection.  There is surely some acceptance of how dismal the season is, but, maybe a chance for the players to do their coach right by pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the season.  This team has failed to show fight, especially in the first half, for most of this year.  Do I expect that to change given their coach maybe on his last game?  No.  I just hope some of the young talent does not leave either (looking at you, Max Klare). 

· Spoilermakers.  Contextually, this could be the most significant upset in Purdue football history and be the most vivid example of the Spoilermakers mantra.  Purdue #1 ranked teams before, so I understand it may not be the single greatest upset from a spread perspective.  However, a win Saturday as a 29 point underdog would certainly still be massive AND, more importantly, prevent the Hoosiers from making the playoffs.  IU, as you all know, has been largely laughable for most of their history (No bowl wins since 1993, one Rose Bowl in the late 60’s, etc).  How ironic would it be for Purdue, in their worst season maybe ever, to ruin IU’s playoff chances in the best season in school history?  Not going to happen, but would be hilarious.  

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  The public is all over the Hoosiers.  The contrarian angle has not been too kind for Purdue this year, as sportsbooks have largely been waxed by people fading Purdue.  However, Purdue now has two covers in Big Ten play with Illinois and MSU.  IU has also been a cover machine.  A blind fade of Purdue and a blind backing of the Hoosiers this year would have paid out quite handsomely.  We are seeing 84% of money on the Hoosiers, which is insane.  The public has typically done quite well on Holiday weekends, but the public has also done well all year with Purdue, will that continue?  The spread has moved as you would expect, it opened near 25 and is closing near 30.  I am sure the sportsbooks are hoping for a 28 point IU win.  From a totals standpoint, there is a small sharp buy on the under, and just a little bit more total money on the over as opposed to the under.  This gives us a little lean to the under, which has not moved since opening.     EDGE: Purdue +29, Under 56.5

Trends: Similar to last week, trends are not much help this week since Cignetti is also in his first season with the Hoosiers.  For Purdue, analysis remains the same.  Purdue has largely been bad against the spread under Walters in any situation.  The under has had success recently whenever the Boilers enter Bloomington with the under cashing in 4 of the last 5 games.  IU has seen a lot of over success this year, while Purdue has seen more of a 50/50 split with totals.  However, Purdue trends still suggest a slight lean to the over.  Overall, even in one season, Cignetti’s ATS record is too good to overlook.   EDGE: IU, Over.

Situation:  Purdue enters this game in another great situational spot.  The Boilers are fresh off a tough loss to the Spartans in East Lansing last Friday.  Purdue has yet to beat a FBS team this season and has overall abysmal against the spread.  Purdue also is on the brink of losing their head coach.  IU is in a much better situation, but it is a little interesting.  IU is fresh off their first loss of the season getting humbled by the Buckeyes in Columbus.  Normally, this would cause bettors to probably take a second look at IU.  However, the opposite has occurred.  The body of work produced by IU thus far suggests this to be a spot for IU to avenge their OSU loss.  Bettors have flocked to the Hoosiers to whoop a down Purdue team in a game that likely could put IU in the college football playoffs.  Situationally, there is not a strong lean to the total.  The Purdue offense showed some life last week and the Hoosiers all year have been an over machine while struggling last year.  EDGE: Purdue, Push.

Total Analysis:  The play is Purdue.  It is disgusting.  I probably cannot hold my nose enough to pull the trigger, but the sportsbooks will really need Purdue, and after the whooping books have received this year with Purdue, they cannot afford (they can, but for column sake) to be wrong again.  The total has a slight sharp lean to the under, so we will ride that as well.  IU 42-14. 

Official Plays: 1 Unit Purdue +29, .1 Unit Purdue ML, 1 Unit Under 57.

Bonus Bets: IU to shut Purdue out +950.  Odds are not out yet for touchdown scorers, so look for Max Klare here.

Welcome to the 2024 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2024 IU Hoosiers.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats IU by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.

Pregame:First Look: Indiana | First and 10: Indiana | Report: Purdue’s Ryan Walters ‘trending to return for 2025’ | The 3-2-1: What’s next with Purdue’s season poised to come to merciful end? | Opponent View: Indiana | Gold and Black Radio: Purdue-IU