Covering the Tracks: Purdue-LSU gambling analysis

Covering The Tracks: LSU

Welcome to the 2022 Bowl edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet.  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2022 Louisiana State University Tigers.

Prior Week Recap

Column goes 0-2 for the Big Ten Championship as the total goes over, and Michigan unnecessarily runs the score up to cover (I am not bitter, clearly).  

2022 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 5-8 ATS, Overs are 8-5. 

LSU: 7-6 ATS,  Overs are 7-6.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 1/1/22:

Current spread: Purdue +15.5 (Opened Purdue +6.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +450, LSU -630 

1H Spread: Purdue +8.5, O/U 27.5

Over/Under: 54.5 (Opened 58.5)

LSU O/U: 34.5  (Over -115, Under -111)

Purdue O/U: 19.5  (Over -113, Under -113)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 54% on Purdue, 58% on over

Money: 39% on Purdue, 38% on over

Related:

• Purdue coach Drew Brees: ‘I love LSU, except for Monday’

• Projecting Purdue’s defensive depth chart for Citrus Bowl

• Projecting Purdue’s offensive depth chart for Citrus Bowl

• Opt outs: QB Aidan O’Connell; WR Charlie Jones; TE Payne Durham; CB Cory Trice; LB Jalen Graham. G Spencer Holstege has transferred to UCLA.

Executive Summary

What a wild turn of events since the Big Ten Championship.  A Jeff Brohm-less, Aidan-less, Chuck Sizzle-less, Durham-less, Purdue football team heads down to Orlando to take on the LSU Tigers.  The spread skyrocketed when Purdue opt out news came out, with the spread jumping almost ten points.  Public bettors are all over LSU, obviously, given the changes to Purdue’s coaching staff.  Brian Brohm has coached one game in his career as a HC, with the Boilers beating Iowa in 2020.  Brian Kelly has a pretty good track record against Purdue.    

Trend Analysis for LSU

Trend analysis for the Bowl Games becomes extremely difficult given the coaching changes.  So, I wanted to be transparent with my process.  Since this is still a team of Jeff Brohm players with Brian Brohm coaching, I am going to still review trends dating back to 2017 for Purdue.  Therefore, any trend I use for Purdue will be since 2017, unless explicitly stated otherwise.  For LSU, I will be reviewing this season, but also dive into Notre Dame bowl trends when Brian Kelly was the coach.

· Purdue is 0-6 straight up against Brian Kelly.

2010: Notre Dame 23, Purdue 12

2011: Notre Dame 38, Purdue 10

2012: Notre Dame 20, Purdue 17

2013: Notre Dame 31, Purdue 24

2014: Notre Dame 30, Purdue 14

2021: Notre Dame 27, Purdue 13

· Purdue is 4-2 ATS at neutral site games.  Purdue has failed to cover twice, once at the Music City Bowl against Auburn, and the Big Ten Championship game against Michigan.

· Purdue is 2-1 ATS in bowl games.  Purdue covered against Arizona and Tennessee, winning both games outright, while losing and failing to cover against Auburn.

· In Brian Brohm’s one game as the Boiler’s head coach, Purdue covered the spread against Iowa in 2020.

· Purdue is 12-5 ATS when playing ranked opponents.

· The over is 4-2 in games where Purdue plays at a neutral site.  The total has gone over by an average of 10.1 points in this spot.

· In Purdue games against ranked opponents, the over is 7-10.  The under hits in this spot by an average of 1.1 points.

· In Purdue bowl games, the total has gone over in all three games.

· LSU is 0-2 ATS when the Tigers played at a neutral site this season.  This includes failing to cover against Florida State to open the season, and Georgia in the SEC Championship game.

· Brian Kelly was 5-5 ATS in bowl games at Notre Dame.  This includes a win at the Citrus Bowl in 2014 against… LSU.

· LSU is 3-4 ATS as a favorite this season. LSU fails to cover in this spot by an average of 1.1 points.

· Under Kelly, the total has gone over 1 time in 2 games when LSU plays at a neutral site.

· The over is 3-4 in LSU games when LSU is the favorite, with the total going under on average by 2 points.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Thank you, Jeff Brohm.  Well, the biggest news of the past few weeks, Jeff Brohm taking a 2.5 hour drive South on 65 to Louisville.  It is not the intent of this column to delve into the decision, other than to discuss the impact it has on this game.  Jeff had developed a reputation for positive bowl game performance, so the trend analysis kind of loses its muster with Jeff gone.  We will never definitely know how much involvement Brian had in the game plan and offensive play calling, but one can hope it was substantial.  Additionally, is motivation an issue here for Purdue players? Do you, as a player, want to play for a coach who is leaving, just as his brother did?  Jeff, I know you read these, so thank you for all the fun wins at Purdue!  

·Next Man Up.  The second biggest storyline for the past couple weeks: who is actually going to play in the bowl game?  With no Aidan, Charlie, Payne, or Jalen, who will step up for Purdue?  This is not unchartered territory for Purdue.  Last year, we see Broc Thompson and Jack Sullivan have massive games in the wake of Bell and Karlaftis opting for the draft.  Losing your QB in addition to your best defensive player is huge, but I would still expect some younger guys to make moves.

· The Saint Comes Marching In.  One of the biggest surprises for the upcoming bowl game, Drew Brees will don a headset as he coaches the quarterbacks in Orlando for the Boilers.  As the long time face of the New Orleans Saints, Drew will alienate a large portion of his fan base for a day on Monday as he tries to take down the Tigers.  Can Drew spark some magic with Austin Burton?

· LSU Opt Outs.  While the talk has been about Purdue opt outs, LSU has had its fair share of players missing the bowl game.  As it stands, six players have opted out, nine have entered the transfer portal, and six players may be out due to injury.  While Purdue has certainly had more prominent players opt-out in terms of production this season, the spread seems like an overreaction.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  The numbers for the game are certainly interesting.  I am shocked to see a majority of bets being placed on Purdue.  We are at 54% of bets placed on Purdue, which is more than expected, given the opt outs.  In terms of money bet, the dollars coming in are backing LSU.  We are seeing about 66% of money bet on the sides coming in on LSU.  Typically, more bets as opposed to more money implies that the public is backing a side.  However, I always am cautious about backing a side when there is a blatant discrepancy in money.  66% is pretty high, and gives me plenty of pause for concern.  We are seeing extremely similar numbers with the total.  A majority of the bets are on the over, but we are seeing a lot of the money come in on the under.  The difference between the two, primarily, is the timing on when the bets came in.  The spread moved almost immediately, and held strongly at around 14.  We have seen that number slowly creep, likely in response to the money bet on LSU.  For the total, the number has slowly diminished since the total was originally released.  If you are betting just the numbers, there is an argument to be made to parlay LSU and the Under, or Purdue and the over.  Ultimately, 66% of money is too much for me to feel comfortable betting a side, especially since the line has already moved to the point where the value is gone, with similar feelings toward the total.  EDGE: Purdue spread, Over.

Trends:  Full disclosure, the trends are incredibly difficult this week.  Brian Brohm has coached one game as an interim coach, and it was the first game of the 2020 season, which took place in October.  Not exactly a normal game, or a normal season.  The Boilers did cover, but not sure how much stock can be put in.  Typically, this would be a dream spot for Purdue based on trends.  Jeff Brohm Purdue teams have made a living off covering against ranked teams as well as overs hitting in bowl games.  The overs have hit in a majority of Purdue games, while Purdue typically has struggled against the spread.  In a stupid but funny trend, Purdue is also 0-6 this season against teams who have a predator for a mascot (Nittany Lions, Owls, Badgers, Hawkeyes, Wildcats, Wolverines).  Brian Kelly has typically had Purdue’s number, regardless of the coach.  His bowl game record is average, and does not really show a trend one way or the other.  LSU has been also ok against the spread this year, with no real trends showing up.  EDGE: I am not sure there is an edge, things are so wonky with the Boilers and after only one season with LSU, there is not a real telling sign.

Situation:  Both teams are coming off fairly lackluster performances in their conference championship game, specifically, defensively.  Purdue gave up to 43 to Michigan, while LSU gave up 50 (although, after last night, both Michigan and Georgia offenses scored with ease against some pretty good defenses).  The opt outs are going to be the carrot on the string for the public.  It is incredibly easy to overreact to opt out news.  Pair that with Jeff Brohm leaving, and it should be no surprise to see so much money on LSU.  LSU had played much better later in the season, prior to the SEC Championship game, so I wonder if they can return to that level.  I think Purdue gets the edge situationally, just with public perception of the team losing their head coach, you would expect the public to bet against.  Purdue has also lost four of its most important offensive players, so I am not shocked people would put the money on the under.     EDGE: Purdue, Over.

Total Analysis:  In every bowl game, player motivation always comes into question.  That question is even further put under a microscope when you have a team playing for an interim head coach who will be following the coach who just left your team.  Fading the money has typically done a pretty good job this bowl season (2-0 last night with TCU and O$U spreads), so I would think fading the money could be the move here.  Could this game be an Auburn rehash?  Absolutely, but it could also turn into a Purdue-Tennessee game with unexpected players making huge plays.  The over is 3-0 in Purdue bowl games, and I am going to ride that trend till it loses.  Brian Kelly keeps his undefeated record, but I am not LSU covers, the value is already gone.  I would be lying if I said Austin Burton’s play against FAU was not a concern, but I do believe that was in part to conservative play calling, and Purdue, and Brian Brohm, have nothing to lose.  This is an audition for Brian, on the national stage, to prove to the college football world that he is more than just his brother.  I hope he opens it up, and we see some points.

Prediction:  LSU wins 38-24.

Official Plays: Purdue +15.5, I am sprinkling Purdue ML because why not (underdogs who cover in bowl games also win on the moneyline at an above average rate compared to the regular season).  I am taking over 54.5.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +15.5 against LSU meaning a sportsbook would expect LSU to win by 15.5 points.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +15.5 or LSU -15.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win or lose by 15 or less.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue loses to LSU by 1, LSU has won the game, but Purdue has covered.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.