Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Michigan

Covering The Tracks: Michigan

Welcome to a special, first-ever Big Ten Championship edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   There is a glossary at the end for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet.  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2022 Big Ten East Champion Michigan Wolverines.

Prior Week Recap

Column goes 1-1 last week as the total goes under, but the Boilers cover.  

2022 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 5-7 ATS, Overs are 7-5. 

Michigan: 7-4-1 ATS,  Overs are 3-8-1.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00 am on 12/2/22:

Current spread: Purdue +17 (Opened Purdue +16.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +575, Michigan -800 

1H Spread: Purdue +8.5, O/U 26.5

Over/Under: 52 (Opened 48.5)

Michigan O/U: 34.5  (Over -105, Under -125)

Purdue O/U: 17.5  (Over +110, Under -140)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 21% on Purdue, 65% on over

Money: 34% on Purdue, 80% on over

Executive Summary

This is a great spot for Purdue.  Michigan is coming off the biggest win of the college football season and all eyes are on the Maize and Blue.  The public has backed Michigan accordingly.  Even with all the money on Michigan, the spread has not moved much, only moving a half point up to 17.  Jeff Brohm and Purdue have been phenomenal as underdogs and are 3-0 against top three teams.  Michigan motivation is in question as Michigan likely can lose and still make the playoffs.  Purdue should play very loose with nothing to lose.  Great season Boilers.

Trend Analysis for Michigan

· Purdue is 0-1 ATS against Michigan under Brohm.  The Boilers lost 28-10 in the infamous medical assistance game when Michigan QB Wilton Speight was hurt and Jim Harbaugh raised awareness of the visiting team accommodations at Purdue.

· Purdue is 4-1 ATS at neutral site games.  Purdue’s loan failure to cover was the Music City Massacre against Auburn.

· Purdue is 3-0 ATS under Brohm when playing top three teams, with wins in all three games.  The Boilers beat O$U in 2018, and beat Iowa and MSU last season.

· The over is 3-2 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue plays at a neutral site.  The total has gone over by an average of 9.8 points in this spot.

· In Purdue games against ranked opponents under Brohm, the over is 6-10.  The under hits in this spot by an average of 1.9 points.

· In Purdue games under Brohm after a win, the over is 16-17.

· Michigan is 3-5 ATS when the Wolverines play at a neutral site under Jim Harbaugh.

· Michigan is 38-32-1 ATS the week after a win under Harbaugh.

· Michigan is 43-36-2 ATS as a favorite under Harbaugh. Michigan covers in this spot by an average of 2.6 points.

· Under Harbaugh, the total has gone over 6 times in 8 games when Michigan plays at a neutral site.  The over hits on average by 3.0 points.

· The over is 36-34-1 after a Michigan win under Harbaugh, with the total going over on average by 1.5 points.

· The over is 41-39-1 in games where Michigan is a favorite under Harbaugh, with the total going over on average by 1.3 points.  

Miscellaneous Factors

· bOILer up.  Welp, I am not really sure how it happened, but thank you Trey Palmer and Nebraska because the Purdue Boilermakers are officially playing in Lucas Oil Stadium.  This is the biggest game Purdue has played in, in the Jeff Brohm era.  I am going to ignore the reports coming from the Rose Bowl for now and just focus on the magnitude of winning this game, on a national stage, and crowning yourselves as the Big Ten Champions.  Emotions should be at an all time high for the Boilers, which, if the end of the Syracuse game is any indication, could be a bad thing.  This is the best team Purdue has played all year with stakes at an all-time high for the Boilers.  How will they respond to the bright lights of Lucas Oil?

· Lose and you’re still in?  On the flip side of the coin, one HAS to wonder about motivation issues for Michigan.  Do they want to win this game? Of course.  Is a Big Ten championship important to Harbaugh? Surely…  However, a quick glance of the college football playoff rankings and one could reasonably conjure that even with a loss Saturday, Michigan is more than likely in the playoffs.  Will this impact their motivation?  Last year, Michigan came into Indy and truly smacked Iowa in the mouth, but Michigan HAD to win to get in.  Will we see a different outcome this year given the circumstances?  I hope so.

· Weather.  After WEEKS of playing in the cold and windy conditions of the Midwest in November (although it was unseasonably windy), the Boilers will step into the nice, dry confines of a Jim Irsay owned, closed roof stadium on Saturday.  This will be the best passing conditions the Boilers will have played in since the Nebraska game in October.  Jeff Brohm will have full use of a playbook that will not have an ounce of hindrance due to the weather.

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· Ross Ade South.  The Boilers may line up on the visitors sideline Saturday night, but a quick look around the stadium and it should be made pretty clear who a majority of the crowd is there for.  By all indications, the crowd should be VERY Purdue heavy Saturday night.  Michigan was just here last year, and with the cost of attending the college football playoff games on the horizon, it should be no surprise that ticket demand amongst Wolverine fans is down.  Purdue has been just ok at Ross Ade this year, but maybe a home crowd at a neutral site will do wonders for the Boilers.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  Hello public!  It should come as no surprise that the public is backing Michigan this Saturday.  We are seeing almost 80% of bets coming in on Michigan, however, only about 66% of money is on Michigan.  One can reasonably expect a sharp money difference here of 13% on Purdue.  If I am a Michigan bettor, I would certainly be concerned with how many bets and how much money is on Michigan.  The line movement has been unsurprising, at least to me.  It opened at 16.5, and it has gone up to 17 a couple times, but has held relatively steady around 16.5.  This bodes well for Boilers.  16.5 screams bait line to me.  A bettor sees the line hanging a half point under the key number of 17, and thinks “Well, I just need Michigan to win by 17 and they cover.”  Sportsbooks have taken around 80% of money on one side and yet have only moved the line a half point.  Obviously nothing is guaranteed in the gambling world, but in my opinion, if the sportsbooks were concerned about taking so much money on Michigan, they would have moved the line to 17.5 to draw in Purdue money with the same logic about the key number of 17.  They may still do that closer to game time.  Until then, the numbers bode very well for Purdue bettors.  From a totals standpoint, we are seeing a LOT of money on the over, which is a surprise to me.  Michigan’s defense has been dominant by every statistic.  I am surprised people are betting Michigan to cover but think the over would hit.  This number has already jumped 4.5 points, which is a bit surprising as well.  EDGE: Purdue spread, Under.

Trends:  Is that Jeff Brohm underdog music I hear????  Once again, Jeff Brohm has defined the season by generally looking awesome as an underdog, and struggling as a favorite.  Purdue covered twice as a double digit favorite this year, both times coming against Indiana schools.  The crazy stat to me:  Jeff Brohm is undefeated against top 3 teams.  No, not undefeated against the spread, undefeated straight up against top 3 teams under Brohm.  Purdue has beaten Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan State all while in the top 3.  Purdue has flourished on neutral fields, particularly because of Brohm’s ability to get this team ready for Bowl Games.  This game is obviously a bit different, since Purdue only had a week to prepare.  Michigan under Harbaugh has been a solid team ATS, but there is not a trend that really gives us any insight one way or the other.  Michigan has been good against the spread this year too, but again, no real strong trends.  Typically in these neutral site games, we have seen Purdue games go over substantially, but again, that is when Brohm has weeks to prepare.  I believe those trends are not representative of the situation, and would lean more to Purdue’s trends against ranked teams, where the under has largely reigned supreme.    EDGE: Purdue, Under

Situation:  Let’s start with the obvious: Michigan looked AWESOME Saturday.  Well, at least in the fourth quarter when they dropped 21 points to put a dagger in the hearts of Ohio State fans everywhere (and for that, we thank you Michigan).  The numbers are no surprise because of Saturday.  Michigan was the talk of the college football world after their win against Ohio State.  Everyone saw that score and naturally, after beating Ohio State, in Columbus, by 22 points, how, HOW, could Michigan only be a 16.5 point favorite against unranked Purdue?!?!  Fair question, but I truly believe the sportsbooks see an opportunity to capitalize on the Michigan perception.  Michigan has never been more appealing to bet on to an average bettor than now.  I imagine the public is backing the over solely because of Michigan dropping 45 points on Saturday and the Purdue offense having the reputation that it has garnered over years with Jeff Brohm.  Purdue, on the other hand, looked largely lackluster for most of the game against IU.  If Dexter Williams stays healthy (I hope he makes a full recovery, that was tough to watch), who knows how that game goes.  The Purdue offense has not looked “great” since maybe Illinois and arguably Nebraska.  So, the lean to the over seems odd to me.    EDGE: Purdue, Under

Total Analysis:  Ignoring the above, the fact alone that Jeff Brohm and Purdue are double digit underdogs is enough to get me to back Purdue at 17.  We see the numbers, the situation, and the trends all favor Purdue Saturday.  We have seen a recent trend in years past of underdogs performing well in these games, and I hope it can continue.  The public is just too high on Michigan after the O$U win, and there is too much value fading Michigan.  I love Purdue in the spot.  For the total, Michigan’s defense has been great, and JJ McCarthy has actually been pretty good himself.  I would expect Purdue’s run D to hold strong.  

Prediction:  Michigan wins 31-21

Official Plays: Purdue +17, I am sprinkling Purdue ML at +575 because why not.  For the total,  I think the 52 is pretty dead on.  I would probably buy the .5 point and take under 52.5.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +17 against Michigan meaning a sportsbook would expect Michigan to win by 17 points.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +17 or Michigan -17. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win or lose by 16 or less.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue loses to Michigan by 1, Michigan has won the game, but Purdue has covered.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.