Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Michigan
Covering The Tracks: Michigan
Prior Week Recap
Column goes 1-1 for the Nebraska game as Purdue failed to cover, but the Over hit. Back-to-
back weeks hitting a total, but missing the spread, which is unusual for me. However, once
again, with a bigger bet on the spread than the total, we lost units overall.
2023 Season ATS Records
Purdue: 2-6 ATS, Overs are 4-4.
Michigan: 4-3-1 ATS, Overs are 4-4.
Betting Numbers
Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 11/3/23:
Current spread: Purdue +32.5 (Opened Purdue +28.5).
Moneyline: Purdue +2500, Michigan -9000
1H Spread: Purdue +20.5, O/U 28.5
Over/Under: 52.5 (Opened 49)
Betting Percentage Breakdown
Bets: 10% on Purdue, 11% on over
Money: 87% on Purdue, 85% on over
Executive Summary
We have not seen Purdue look this horrible since the pre-Brohm era. Fan optimism is at an
incredible low for the Boilers, and everyone in the country expects Michigan to beat Purdue by
- 90% of the bets and money is on Michigan. This is a crazy one-sided betting sample, and
sportsbooks will need Purdue to cover or they stand to lose a lot. I want to be on their side, so
against my better judgment, I take Purdue spread (arguably, dumbly). The total has some
conflicting factors both ways, so there is not a strong lean. I like the under, solely because
Michigan’s defense has been so good and I think Purdue can get a couple stops. Michigan is in a
look ahead spot with Penn State on the schedule next week. The sign stealing will be fascinating
to see unfold. Will Michigan fall victim to the distraction, or do they come out raising hell
proving to the world they never needed the signs in the first place? This Boilermaker fan, who
foolishly will be in Michigan stadium Saturday, is hoping for the former.
Trend Analysis for Michigan
·Purdue is 1-2 ATS as an away team under Coach Walters.
·Purdue is 1-5 ATS as an underdog under Coach Walters.
· The over is 1-2 when Purdue is an away team under Coach Walters.
· The over is 2-4 when Purdue is an underdog under Coach Walters.
· Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan is 27-23-2 ATS as a home favorite.
· Harbaugh’s Wolverines are 6-2 ATS with a rest advantage over their opponent. The
Wolverines are coming off a bye.
· Against conference opponents, Harbaugh’s Wolverines are 42-30-3 ATS.
· Under Harbaugh, the total went over 20 times in 52 games when Michigan has been a home
favorite.
· The total has gone over 46 times in 75 games when Michigan has played a conference
opponent under Harbaugh.
· Since hiring Mr. Notorious, Connor Stallions, Michigan is 10-3-2 ATS in conference games.
· Michigan is 9-1 ATS in the last ten games against the Big Ten West.
· Ryan Walters’ Illinois defense kept Michigan in check last year by holding the Wolverines to
19 points in a close two-point loss for the Illini.
Miscellaneous Factors
· Sign of the Times. The story that has DOMINATED the college football news cycle for the
last couple weeks, Purdue heads to face the sign-stealing machine that is the Michigan
Wolverine football team. After news leaked of Connor Stallions attending (or paying for others
to attend) opposing team games to scout signals for Michigan, Purdue will now be the first
opponent to take on Michigan. The ultimate question is, will this scandal act as a distraction for
the Michigan football team during their bye week, or, will it fire the team up to prove to the
world they do not need the signs? The Purdue bias says the former, my general logic says the
latter. In addition, is it crazy to suggest Michigan is different without the signs? Surely they
cannot be sign stealing, or if they are, Purdue will have implemented new signs. Will this make
an impact? There are so many unknowns given the news cycle the last two weeks. Harbaugh
has a business as usual approach, but I am not sure even the most professional of players could
block out the noise from the last two weeks.
· Bowl Season Hail Mary. With a 2-6 record, Purdue has its back pushed all the way against the
wall when it comes to bowl season. In a desperate attempt, Purdue will need a virtual miracle to
go bowling. A loss, and a bowl is off the table. As a 32.5 point underdog, I am not holding my
breath.
· Spoilermakers. I am not going to go into depth here, because I have addressed the
Spoilermakers in the Ohio State column. BUT, it is still worth mentioning that Purdue has the
reputation of spoiling top 5 teams when unranked. I’ve seen crazier things happen, but not by
much.
Gambling Analysis
Numbers: In my relatively short time writing for the esteemed Gold and Black team, there has
never been a numbers discrepancy of this magnitude with credible betting volume. Everybody,
and I mean everybody, is on Michigan. For every 9 Michigan bettors, there is 1 Purdue bettor,
and that is with a 32.5 point spread. If Michigan covers, sportsbooks will take a massive loss, so
you can rest assured every casino in Vegas will be pulling for the Boilers to cover. Taking a step
back from the numbers, I cannot help but be shocked by this line. Did everyone watch the
Nebraska game last week? I would’ve guessed Michigan -42 at the least. Purdue has let us
down time and time again, covering twice all season. Every part of me, literally every single
inch says to take Michigan. And you probably should. However, with 90% of the bets on
Michigan to cover, the smart bet, in my dumb, worthless opinion, is to take Purdue. It is the
grossest, plug your nose, contrarian angle you can have. It is just too much leverage on one side
for the books. The spread moved from 28.5 to 32.5 pretty quickly, so my analysis tells me the
books want to take on Michigan money, but might as well try to cover their leverage as much as
possible by moving the spread. However, even with money literally pouring in on the
Wolverines, the spread has held at 32.5. Intriguing. In terms of the total, the public seems to
back the over early. This surprises me, as Michigan’s defense has been nothing short of
phenomenal all season. Public bettors must think Michigan is going to hit the total by
themselves. EDGE: Purdue spread, Under.
Trends: Jim Harbaugh and Michigan have been phenomenal ATS during Harbaugh’s tenure as
the head coach of Michigan. Purdue has been horrible ATS in Walters’ short stint as the head
coach. While Walters’ sample size is too small to put real value in, Harbaugh’s is not, and it is
impressive. Do the signs matter for ATS? Honestly, probably yes. There is no denying
Michigan’s talent. Would the outcome of their games have changed without the signs? I do not
think so, but the magnitude of the wins may have been less, which is a direct impact to the ATS
record. Take it with a grain of salt. For Harbaugh’s Michigan teams, the over has been pretty
good in conference games, but has really struggled in home games when Michigan is the
favorite. Maybe the Michigan defense plays better in the Big House? With Purdue, the under
has struggled when Purdue is an underdog, but the sample size remains insignificant. EDGE:
Purdue spread, Push.
Situation: For the first time since 2016, last Saturday truly felt hopeless as a Purdue fan. To
lose by that much to an incredibly average Nebraska team was tough. Even more discouraging
was the lack of production from a team who was gifted opportunities, specifically opportunities
deep in Nebraska territory. The lack of production is surely due to the injuries, but has to be an
indictment on Graham Harrell too. The play calling and schemes have left MUCH to be desired.
As mentioned before, how does everyone on the planet not take Michigan here? Scandal aside,
they have superior talent, superior discipline, and super coaching. Plus, it is at the Big House.
Everyone should be on Michigan, it is free money, right? The Purdue offense has looked
relatively inept, but the Purdue defense also cannot stop anyone, so if people want the over, it has
to be because they believe Michigan can hit the over by themselves. Michigan has been an
absolute wagon. My gut says Michigan by 49, so the situational spot would be for Purdue. It is
worth noting, this is a look ahead spot for the Wolverines. Michigan has Penn State next week in
a massive game for the Big Ten East. While similar to Ohio State’s situation when the Buckeyes
took on the Boilers, Michigan has had less success the week before Penn State in the past. In
2021 and 2022, Michigan played IU the week before Penn State, winning by 22 and 21
respectively. Average performances under Michigan standards. EDGE: Purdue, Push (due to
Michigan’s offensive and defensive ability and Purdue’s ineptitude on both sides of the
ball).
Total Analysis: Michigan feels like the lock of the century. Purdue looks horrible, and after a
double digit loss to Nebraska, who in their right mind would bet on Purdue? 90% of people
seem to agree. All I will say is this, I cannot in good faith recommend to anyone reading this to
take Purdue. I cannot. But, if you are going to handicap this game, Purdue is the play. I may
look dumb, and I may look biased, but with the spread rising to what it is, combined with
sportsbooks taking on this much money while Michigan is facing a major scandal, maybe Purdue
keeps it under 30 in a boring game.
Prediction: Michigan wins 35-10.
Official Plays: 1 Units on Purdue +32.5. .5 Units Under 52.5. Joey Elliot Magic round II?
Bonus Bets: DraftKings has Deion Burks first TD at +4000. 40/1 odds on Purdue’s best
receiver seems insane to me from a value standpoint. If Purdue can script a great first drive (they
almost did against OSU), Burks has as much of a shot as anyone to get in the endzone and that
value is too much to pass up. Tyrone Tracy at 50/1 is not bad either. A RB screen goes to the
house? Doable. Realistically, from the Michigan side, JJ McCarthy at +950 probably has the
best value. Purdue has struggled all year giving up touchdowns to opposing team QB’s. Blake
Corum to score three touchdowns is only +215. Think how insane that is for a second.
Welcome to the 2023 ninth edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of
the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that
Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces
of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us. Whether you choose to dabble
in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the
Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to
preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary
at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should
this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I
certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For
those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet
with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc). Disclaimer for those who do gamble:
make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can
afford to lose. For this week, we look at the 2023 Michigan Wolverines.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped
line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the
sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The
favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The
spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example,
Purdue is currently -1 against Michigan meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 1
point. It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business. So a spread may
not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at
what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting
their exposure to a big loss.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a
sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will
range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet
$11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50.
To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds +
100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue
+32.5 or Michigan -32.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to lose by 32 or
less, or win.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Michigan beats Purdue by 1, Michigan has won the
game, but Purdue has covered the spread.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright.
Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big
favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to
win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a
game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they
believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long
run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very
useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with
gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager.
Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are
normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would
need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is
losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
