Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Minnesota

Covering The Tracks: Minnesota

Prior Week Recap

Column goes 1-1 for the Michigan game as Purdue covers with the HUGE backdoor, but the Over hit for the half-unit loss.  We do make about a half-unit back.  Deion Burks, you once again are beloved by this column.

2023 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 3-6 ATS, Overs are 5-4.

Minnesota: 3-6 ATS,  Overs are 4-5.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 11/10/23:

Current spread: Purdue -1 (Opened Purdue -1).

Moneyline: Purdue -115, Minnesota -105

1H Spread: Purdue -.5, O/U 23.5

Over/Under: 47.5 (Opened 46.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 46% on Purdue, 38% on over

Money: 42% on Purdue, 27% on over

Executive Summary

Purdue is coming off a pretty brutal stretch (Ohio State and Michigan in the last month) and enter the part of the schedule that, in my opinion, is the most telling for Coach Walters and the players.  All three remaining games, the last 25% of the schedule, are extremely winnable, and I would expect Purdue to be favored in all three.  While Purdue may not be bowl eligible, it is imperative that this team shows signs of life.  Numbers seem to favor Minnesota spread slightly, with a slight sharp buy on the Golden Gophers.  Meanwhile, money and bets have poured on the under, so a contrarian fade would be the over.  Coach Fleck has had some success against Purdue, and Minnesota has had a lot of success against the Boilers as of late.

Trend Analysis for Minnesota

·Purdue is 1-4 ATS as a home team under Coach Walters.

·Purdue is 1-1 ATS as a favorite under Coach Walters.

· The over is 3-3 when Purdue is a home team under Coach Walters.

· The over is 2-0 when Purdue is a favorite under Coach Walters.

· Under P.J. Fleck, Minnesota is 11-9 ATS as an away underdog.

· Against conference opponents, Harbaugh’s Golden Gophers are 29-27-2 ATS.

· Under P.J. Fleck, Minnesota is 15-12-1 ATS after a loss.

· Under Fleck, the total went over 9 times in 20 games when Minnesota has been an away underdog.

· The total has gone over 29 times in 58 games when Minnesota has played a conference opponent under Fleck.

· The total has gone over 18 times in 28 games when Minnesota is coming off a loss under Fleck.

· Ryan Walters’ Illinois defense held Minnesota to 6 points in 2021 and 14 points in 2022.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Rowing the Boat Outlasts Let’s Play Football.  For the first time since 2016, P.J. Fleck and Jeff Brohm will not be facing off during the Big Ten season.  With Brohm gone, P.J. Fleck will face a new Purdue team for the first time since he has been at Minnesota.  The series between these two teams have been nuts, highlighted by the Bentley pick 6 in OT, and most notably, the worst offensive PI call in the history of college football.  With Walters now at the helm, can we expect more craziness to come?

· Boiler Motivation.  With 3 games left in the season, we are hitting the stretch where player motivation can become a real factor.  With the loss to Michigan, Purdue is essentially knocked out of bowl contention.  In what has been a disappointing year after a B1G championship appearance (although Vegas would argue this is exactly what was expected), Ryan Walters will be tasked with finding a way to motivate this team on Saturday with not much to play for.  Meanwhile, Minnesota is still in the thick of the Big Ten West and a win really gives them a shot to close out with a shot to play in the B1G title game (they would need an Iowa loss or two).  It is an oversimplification, and frankly a little unfair to the Purdue players, on my part to suggest Purdue will lack motivation compared to a Minnesota team who has something to play for, but it is still worth noting.   

· Fan Attendance.  I am probably naively hopeful that Ross-Ade will have a good turn-out on Saturday.  However, the realist in me expects to see a dwindled down attendance after the way the season has gone.  With the Boilers struggling to compete and losing some games they probably should not have, I would probably expect to see the smallest crowd we have seen at Ross-Ade in quite some time on Saturday.  Will that impact the game?  I am not sure Purdue has had much of a home field advantage based on the results (not including Illinois), so we will see.

· Injuries.  This probably needs to be left here every week, but the injuries, particularly on the O-line, are so crucial to this teams’ success.  Minnesota is normally pretty stout upfront.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  There is more money on Purdue than I would expect.  A majority of money is still on Minnesota, but there looks to be a slight sharp buy on Minnesota regardless.  About 4% more money is on the Golden Gophers than bets, and the total money amount is staying under the 60% threshold.  The public may also be on Minnesota here, but if so, it is not a very large discrepancy.  The public does love the under in this game, and frankly, it is hard to blame them.  A ton of money has come in on the under, but the total really has not moved with the exception of a point.  Staying under 48 is interesting, 27-21 would get you to the total and are two pretty common football numbers.  The small sharp buy on Minnesota, combined with the somewhat even money split on both teams, is enough to give the Golden Gophers spread an edge.  The extreme difference in money on the under as opposed to the over gives a contrarian edge to the over.     EDGE: Minnesota spread, Over.

Trends: Not much trend analysis here.  P.J. Fleck has been pretty close to .500 ATS in his time at Minnesota, while Purdue under Walters, with limited sample size, has been pretty bad at home.  I will say, after a Minnesota loss, the over has been a pretty consistent winning pick.  While Walters’ defenses have had some success against Minnesota in the past, the quality difference has reared its head and Devon Witherspoon is not lining up for the Boilers.  Slight edge to Minnesota spread because of how bad Purdue has been ATS at home, but a pretty healthy edge to the over.      EDGE: Slight Minnesota spread, Over.

Situation:  Situationally, this is a fairly boring spot for both teams.  Purdue is what they are in the sense they have not looked good since September.  Minnesota is an enigma, some Saturdays they beat Iowa, some they lose to Northwestern.  One weekend is a 42 point loss to Michigan, another is a double digit win over MSU.  Who knows which team we are getting.  Minnesota does have a slight look ahead to Ohio State next week, but to me, this just screams how much Minnesota needs to win today to have even a shot at the B1G West championship.  I am slightly surprised Purdue is favored.  Minnesota has a better record, and has been better in conference, with a very close loss to Illinois last week.  Yes, Purdue beat Illinois, but if they played again this weekend, would Purdue win given the injuries?  Maybe.  It is clear the situational edge is given to the over based on the large percentage of bets on the under.  Purdue’s offense has scored 21 points or more three times so far the entire season.  They have not broken 20 since Illinois in September.  The offense has looked horrible, led by some less than spectacular play from Hudson Card.  Is this Card’s fault?  The o-line’s fault?  Harrell’s fault?  Probably some of each, but I do not believe most think Purdue can score here, especially when Minnesota’s defense has looked good for the most part.   EDGE: Neither, Over.

Total Analysis:  The only reason I am not fully gung-ho on Minnesota is because Purdue is favored here.  That surprises me.  This is probably the worst defense Purdue has played since Illinois in September.  Maybe, just maybe, the Purdue offense can generate some points.  Until I see a step forward of improvement, I have to take Minnesota.  I will say, I have been BEGGING for Hudson Card to run the exact play Burks scored on against Michigan all year.  Maybe Harrell realizes Burks has break away streak speed, and if you throw it up to him off a 5 step drop, Deion can make a play.  All signs I have are pointing to the over and the Golden Gophers, so I will be betting accordingly.

Prediction:  Minnesota wins 27-21.

Official Plays: 1 Unit on Minnesota +1. 1 Unit on Over 47.5.

Bonus Bets:  Deion Burks +750 First Touchdown.  I owe him the entire cover last week.  Jordan Nubin to score 2 or more touchdowns at +360 is decent value as well.

Welcome to the 2023 tenth edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2023 Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -1 against Minnesota meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 1 point.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +32.5 or Minnesota -32.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to lose by 32 or less, or win.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Minnesota by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover (it would be a push, meaning the bet is voided).

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.

Pregame: First Look: Minnesota | First and 10: Minnesota | Bowl hopes dashed, Purdue still has plenty to play for down stretch | Purdue TE Garrett Miller still seeks groove following 2022 knee injury | acrepro.com Purdue Football Buy/Sell: Week 11 | The 3-2-1 |