Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Nebraska
Prior Week Recap
Column goes 1-1 for the OSU game as Purdue failed to cover, but the Under hit. However, with a bigger bet on the spread than the total, we lost units overall.
2023 Season ATS Records
Purdue: 2-5 ATS, Overs are 3-4.
Nebraska: 3-4 ATS, Overs are 2-5.
Betting Numbers
Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 10/27/23:
Current spread: Purdue +2.5 (Opened Purdue +4.5).
Moneyline: Purdue +110, Nebraska -130
1H Spread: Purdue +.5, O/U 19.5
Over/Under: 39 (Opened 42.5)
Betting Percentage Breakdown
Bets: 29% on Purdue, 11% on over
Money: 23% on Purdue, 52% on over
Executive Summary
The curse of Taylor Swift is alive and well as 1989 was released last night. Purdue has never won a game the weekend a Taylor Swift album was released. The bettors are flocking to Nebraska, with over 70% of the bets and money hitting the Huskers. The total betting is a little weird, but a large majority of the bets are on the under, presumably due to Purdue’s offensive struggles, Nebraska’s defensive success, and mainly, the weather. Purdue is in a virtual must win spot to go bowling. Purdue has not covered since the Illinois game in September. Both of these coaches are in their first year with their team, so not much analysis. Keep an eye on weather, keep more of an eye on the injury report. Nebraska only needing to win by 3 at home seems too easy.
Trend Analysis for Nebraska
·Purdue is 1-1 ATS as an away team under Coach Walters.
·Purdue is 1-4 ATS as an underdog under Coach Walters.
· The over is 0-2 when Purdue is an away team under Coach Walters.
· The over is 1-4 when Purdue is an underdog under Coach Walters.
· Under Matt Rhule, Nebraska is 1-2 ATS as a home favorite.
· Rhule’s Cornhuskers are 2-2 ATS in conference games.
· After a win, Rhule’s Cornhuskers are 0-3 ATS.
· Under Rhule, the total went over one time in three games when Nebraska has been a home favorite.
· The total has gone over one times in four games when Nebraska has played a conference opponent under Rhule.
· Nebraska is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.
· The underdog in the Purdue-Nebraska series is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games.
Miscellaneous Factors
· New Guys On the Block. While the last few Nebraska-Purdue matchups featured two former college quarterbacks coaching against each other, this year’s rendition will feature two former defensive players, both coaching a new team. While the journeys to their respective schools are quite different (Walters going from the Illinois DC to Purdue HC, and Rhule going from an NFL HC to Nebraska HC), both will coach against each other for the first time in what is a massive game for both sides desperate for a win.
· Rest, Recovery, Relaxation. Has there ever been a better timed bye-week for a Purdue team? One can only pray that the Boilers used the bye week to rest up and get healthy. Injuries were a massive detriment to the team, especially to a team that lacks depth. Jeff Brohm established himself as a post bye week guru, of sorts. If he had extra time to gameplan, his team was covering, period. Can Walters do the same? Can Graham Harrell scheme open Purdue receivers in Lincoln?
· Prairie Weather. Purdue rolls into Lincoln in what will be the coldest conditions of the season so far. Game temps expected in the high 30’s, with a 30% chance of rain and wind gusts around 13-14 mph. Not exactly ideal playing conditions, but that is football weather. In the two games this season with any sort of rain, Purdue offense struggled against OSU and did alright at Virginia Tech. Wind always plays the biggest factor in impacting an offense, and I imagine the weather report is the blame for the total dropping down.
· Taylor Swift Hates Purdue Football. In the words of the world-renowned poet and philosopher, Michael G. Scott, author of Somehow I Manage, “I am not superstitious, I am just a little stitious”. Purdue football has never won a game the same weekend Taylor Swift has released an album. Is this coincidental? 99% yes. Does it still worry me deep down no matter my iron clad exterior? Also, yes. Taylor Swift released 1989 (Taylor’s Version) on Friday. Can Ryan Walters break the curse? Maybe. Or maybe Nebraska’s mediocrity can do it for us.
Gambling Analysis
Numbers: Nebraska bettors, come on down! Fresh off their very impressive 8 point win over Northwestern, bettors have flocked to the sportsbook windows to take the Cornhuskers. The sad part, can you blame them? Nebraska has been competitive as of late, Purdue has not. Purdue, albeit coming off bye, is coming off three straight losses ATS. Over 70% of bets and money are on Nebraska. That crosses that wonderful 70% threshold that I personally love to bet against. Now, it is worth mentioning, similar to what we saw with O$U, the book fade, even at 70%, hits around 58-60%. But, I do still love this fade opportunity. What is most interesting to me, is the direction the spread has moved, given the money bet thus far, AND what the spread has held at. Sportsbook taking on 70% of money while keeping the Nebraska spread under the key number of three seems extremely bold to me. That is a lot of liability if Nebraska squeaks out by a field goal. The consensus response from sportsbook seems to have confidence in a Boiler cover. From a total standpoint, the difference in money and bet % is odd, which suggest low volume. The total shot down with weather reports, so I assume many are praying the elements play a factor. Public on a under? The dream. Give me points. EDGE: Purdue spread, Over.
Trends: Trends are tough because both of these coaches come in to this game in their first year as the head coach of their respective team. Rhule’s time at Baylor does not give us a great outlook from a trend standpoint, and so far at Nebraska his team has been lackluster ATS, but that is nothing new for the Huskers. Purdue has been worse. Purdue has now not covered since the blowout of Illinois, which certainly seems like now it was not “just another game” for Walters. The interesting trends for me are the series results as of late. The underdogs have CRUISED in these games ATS. Maybe it is a perception problem? Maybe it is Jeff Brohm failing to cover as a favorite when Purdue has been one against Nebraska? Regardless, the underdogs have excelled and Nebraska has been awful ATS at home. The totals for both teams scream over from a trends perspective, at least in the sample size this season. EDGE: Purdue spread, Under.
Situation: I have virtually no faith in this Purdue team. When Walters decided to kick, which was missed, for the third time (after a student hit a forty yarder) against Ohio State, I walked out of the stadium early for maybe the first time ever. Things for the program right now are not great, and the public perception has dubbed Purdue bad, as evidenced by the large bettor backing on Nebraska. The only strain of solace I can find is the bye week for Purdue. An extra week to rest and get healthy, as well as game plan, SHOULD have the Boilers playing a little bit better. Nebraska does not have the greatest perception either, but they are on a two game win streak against power five opponents for the second time since 2018, while holding both Illinois and Northwestern to single digits. The Nebraska defense, while far from the days of Ndamukong Suh, Lavonte David, and Prince Amukamara, has showed it can be a real force. This, combined with the weather, is largely what has drawn bettors to the under. Can Purdue, in spotty conditions, generate points against the Huskers? EDGE: Purdue, Over.
Total Analysis: There is a window for Purdue to go bowling, but that window closes real fast if you walk out of Lincoln with an L, especially given the Big House on the schedule next week (Looking for a sign from the divine for the Boilers to beat the Wolverines but Michigan stole it. I’m here all week). Nebraska has looked competent, and their defense has looked very impressive (sans the second half of the Colorado game). Purdue has struggled lately, with minimal depth. So you are telling me I can Nebraska, at home, and just need them to win by a field goal??? If it is too good to be true, it usually is. Plug your nose, we are hammering down on the Boilers. The weather does worry me. Most former players will tell you that rain and snow are not the weather conditions that hinder offenses, but rather, wind. The wind for this game is not TOO bad, we are looking at 13-14 mph. But, it is enough to be cognizant. If the win stays down, the scoreboard could still see some points. Under feels safe, so let’s fade it. Go break that T Swift curse, Boilers.
Prediction: Purdue wins 21-20.
Official Plays: 2.5 Units on Purdue +2.5. 1 Unit on Purdue ML. 1 Units Over 39.
Bonus Bets: No props this week as FanDuel is scared to provide them.
Welcome to the 2023 eighth edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us. Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc). Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose. For this week, we look at the 2023 Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -1 against Nebraska meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 1 point. It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business. So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +2.5 or Nebraska -2.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to lose by 2 or less, or win.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Nebraska beats Purdue by 1, Nebraska has won the game, but Purdue has covered the spread.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
MORE: Purdue freshman S Dillon Thieneman plays with senior savvy | Matchup preview: Purdue at Nebraska | In the huddle: WR Mershawn Rice | Opponent view: Nerbaska | Move to Purdue, Big Ten not too big for former NAIA golfer Ben Farrell | The 3-2-1: Peek at future | Coming off bye, Purdue in ‘playoff mode’ as it makes postseason push | First and 10: Purdue at Nebraska | First look: Nebraska
