Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Northwestern

Covering The Tracks: Northwestern

Welcome to the fourth year, tenth edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet.  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2022 Northwestern Wildcats.

Prior Week Recap

FINALLY.  Column goes 2-0 with a +215 sprinkle on the Boilers as well.  The Purdue offense bounced back in a big way while the defense got stops when needed.  Mr. Durham had a great day in what is now ChamPayne, Illinois.

2022 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 4-6 ATS, Overs are 7-3. 

Northwestern: 6-3 ATS,  Overs are 2-6-1.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 11/18/22:

Current spread: Purdue -18.5 (Opened Purdue -18).

Moneyline: Purdue-1100, Northwestern +700 

1H Spread: Purdue -10, O/U 24

Over/Under: 44.5 (Opened 49)

Northwestern O/U: 13.5  (Over -115, Under -115)

Purdue O/U: 30.5  (Over -125, Under -105)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 31% on Purdue, 13% on over

Money: 9% on Purdue, 22% on over

Executive Summary

Unsurprisingly, this is a pretty under the radar game.  You will not see many people caring about a Purdue Northwestern noon kick.  The bet handle is fairly small, so the numbers do not tell us much.  We do see that the people who are betting on this game love Northwestern.  The spread has hardly moved, deviating about a half point from 18.  Purdue has been lackluster at home this year as a favorite.  The only cover occurred against Indiana State, an FCS team.  As a double digit favorite against FAU and Nebraska, the Boilers were in extremely tight games.  Purdue is coming off a massive win against Illinois to put them in the passenger seat of the car driven by Iowa towards Indianapolis.  A Minnesota win Saturday and the Boilers can move into the driver’s seat.  Northwestern has been objectively horrible all season.  I would have guessed people take the Boilers to hammer the downtrodden Wildcats, but that does not seem to be the case.  The weather will be freezing with some wind, so curious if the Boiler offense can continue the momentum from Illinois. 

Trend Analysis for Northwestern

· Purdue is 2-3 ATS against Northwestern under Brohm.  Brohm is 2-3 straight up against Northwestern.  The spread has not mattered in this series (granted, the spread has been close for most of the games).  In other words, the team that wins also covers.  The over has gone 2-3 as well in the series.

2021 at Wrigley: Purdue 32-14, Purdue covered -11, total went under 47.5

2020: Northwestern 27-20, Northwestern covered  -3.5, total went under 48  

2019: Purdue 24-22, Purdue covered +1, total went over 39

2018: Northwestern 31-27, Northwestern covered in a pick’em, total went over 51.5

2017: Northwestern 23-13, Northwestern covered -6, total went under 48.5

· Purdue is 9-13 ATS as an home favorite under Brohm.  Purdue has failed to cover in this spot against FAU and Nebraska this year, but did cover against Indiana State.

· Purdue is 16-15 ATS under Brohm when playing the week after a Boilermaker win.  The Boilers are 2-3 in this spot this year.

· The Boilers are 2-3 straight up under Brohm on Senior Day.  Two of these losses came in double over time (Wisconsin 2018, IU 2019).

· The over is 12-10 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue is a home favorite.  The total has gone under by an average of .6 points in this spot.

· In Purdue games against Big Ten opponents under Brohm, the over is 23-25-1.  The under hits in this spot by an average of .4 points.

· In Purdue games under Brohm after a win, the over is 16-15.

· Northwestern is 35-23-0 ATS when the Wildcats are an away underdog under Pat Fitzgerald.

· Northwestern is 45-45-0 ATS after a loss under Fitzgerald.

· Northwestern is 73-66-2 ATS in conference games under Fitzgerald.  Northwestern covers in this spot by an average of .7 points.

· Under Fitzgerald, the total has gone under 32 times in 56 games when Northwestern is an away underdog.  The under hits on average by .1 points.

· The over is 35-51-4  after a Northwestern loss under Fitzgerald, with the total going under on average by 1.6 points.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Boilers, and Hawkeyes, and Gophers, Oh my.  What a weird, strange, turn of events where the Big Ten West Gods have put Purdue fans in a spot where they must actively root for PJ Fleck (PJ, I know you are reading this, so if you beat Iowa Saturday, I will stop calling you a fraud).  Purdue has put itself back into a strong position to win the Big Ten West.  With an Iowa loss, all Purdue has to do is beat the two worst teams in the Big Ten.  Easy.. right?  My years of Boilermaker heartbreak lead me to believe something has to go wrong, but who knows.  Purdue has to stay focus.  The win over Illinois was massive, but the Boilers simply cannot afford a let up here.  Brohm teams notoriously have come out flat after big wins, so let us hope we see some fire early.  Purdue needs a statement burying at home of a team it is clearly better than.  This will be cold, gloomy, noon kick and it is IMPERATIVE Purdue comes out sharp and firing.  End this game early.

· No Sleeves till Brooklyn (Indianapolis).  From NFL to college, it has always been a weird “tradition” of sorts to see lineman, specifically offensive lineman, never wear sleeves, no matter how cold the game is.  Well, we will see the first true test of that this season as games temps on Saturday at kick should be in the high 20’s, with windchill dropping that temperature down to about 15.  The Boilers, for the third week in a row, will play with some significant wind current forecasts call for 15mph.  Aiden looked significantly more comfortable last week with the lower wind speeds, and thankfully those speeds are more on par with Saturday as opposed to the Iowa game.  Hopefully the cold does not bother the Boilers too much and the weather is a non-factor for them.  (I, on the other hand, will be bundled up drinking irish coffees in the D lot to muster up the strength to sit in the stands).

· Up is Down, Left is Right.  If you take a quick glance at the Northwestern schedule, the biggest thing that sticks out to me is the lowest points allowed by Northwestern in Big Ten play this year: Ohio State (21) and Penn State (17), just like everyone predicted.  Northwestern seems to save its biggest games for the bright lights of a game against a ranked team.  Outside of OSU and Penn State, Northwestern has allowed 28 to Nebraska, and 30+ to Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  Not exactly a murderer’s row of offenses.  Where does Purdue fall in this?  Seeing as there is no number in front of the name, my hope is the latter group.  

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  The numbers are not too reliable this week given the low handle.  Purdue and Northwestern is just not an attractive game for gamblers.  This could certainly change closer to Saturday morning, but as of now, the numbers are wonky.  Even so, almost all of the money is on Northwestern.  My thoughts being that it could be sharps making these bets, and maybe they recognize the struggles Purdue has had as a big home favorite.  Conversely, everyone seems to be on the under, given that it is going to be a cold, gross day and Northwestern’s offense has been horrendous.  The spread has held steady, while the under has dropped points, suggesting there was some value on the under.  I think the edge goes to Purdue spread just because of how much money is on Nebraska, relatively.  The under is also a fan favorite so the over gets the nod.   EDGE: Purdue spread, Over.

Trends:  Jeff Brohm Purdue teams have not been good at home as a double-digit favorite.  They struggled against Nebraska and they struggled against FAU.  Northwestern has always been a pretty defense first football team and their trends show it.  The under has been a cash cow for Northwestern conference games and when Northwestern is an away underdog.  There is not much trend analysis for Purdue outside of that spot.  I will say, this feels very similar to the Wrigley field game where the Boilers did cover a double-digit spread.  Granted, Purdue was coming off a loss and playing at Wrigley was a bit different.  Northwestern has not exactly been a strong side to back, but they have been better in the spot as an away underdog than Purdue has as a home favorite.     EDGE: Northwestern, Under  

Situation:  Purdue is coming off a massive win while the Wildcats are having one of the worst seasons in program history, a season in which they are yet to win a game on American Soil.  Purdue’s offense got back to normalcy last week putting up solid numbers against a very good Illini defense.  Northwestern’s offense has failed to reach double digits in its two games played in November.  18 is a LOT of points, but I expected more people to be on Purdue given how bad Northwestern is.  Is Northwestern scrappy, or is 18 too many points?  Northwestern could not look worse and Purdue is coming off a massive win with IU and the Big Ten West championship on their horizon.  EDGE: Northwestern, Push (NW offense is horrible, Purdue offense looks good, cancels out I suppose).

Total Analysis:  I would like to apologize up front because I just do not feel like there is much one way or another to really provide good content.  This is largely a stay away game for me.  There is not enough of a handle to suggest where public money is, and this has largely been a bad situational spot for the Boilers.  Purdue should blow Northwestern out.  They absolutely should.  However, I felt this way about FAU and Nebraska, so maybe it is time I take Northwestern in hopes of Purdue figuring out how to smoke a bad team at home.  Fitzgerald has been good as an away underdog, and maybe the combination of wind and cold causes the Boilermaker offense to regress.  I would be happy with a double digit wind regardless.

Prediction:  31-13 Northwestern.

Official Plays: Northwestern +18.5, Under 44.5.  As a Purdue realist (or pessimist really) I would consider putting a very small amount of money on Northwestern moneyline.  This would purely be an emotional hedge.  I cannot back Brohm in this spot until he shows me the team can play motivated.  Beat Northwestern, Go Gophers, and we’re onto Bloomington with a chance to do the damn thing.  As a prop bonus bet, I am taking Mockabee to score twice.  I could see the Boilers pounding the football on an otherwise cold and gross day.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -18.5 against Northwestern meaning a sportsbook would expect Northwestern to lose by 18.5 points.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -18.5 or Northwestern +18.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 19 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Northwestern by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Northwestern has covered.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.