Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Northwestern

Prior Week Recap

Column goes 1-1 and I get to eat a healthy helping of crow as not only did the Boilers show up in a big way, but the fans did too as the stadium was incredibly filled.  Kudos to the coaches, players, and fans.  The over did cash for us in the first half, and Purdue cleared it by themselves!

2023 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 4-6 ATS, Overs are 6-4.

Northwestern: 6-4 ATS,  Overs are 5-5.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 11/17/23:

Current spread: Purdue -3 (Opened Purdue -1).

Moneyline: Purdue -155, Northwestern +130

1H Spread: Purdue -.5, O/U 23.5

Over/Under: 48 (Opened 48.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 39% on Purdue, 42% on over

Money: 23% on Purdue, 33% on over

Executive Summary

You want to see a Jeckyl and Hyde schedule?  Northwestern.  The Wildcats have been blown out against the lone quality team they have seen (PSU) but have won some surprising games in the meantime.  They held Iowa to 10, gave up 34 to Minnesota, and beat Wisconsin by 14.  Purdue is coming off arguably its most impressive top to bottom performance of the season (I would entertain the Illinois game slotted here too), and yet, most people are giving Northwestern the benefit of the doubt given the amount of money skewed towards the Wildcats.  Nothing quite says “punting” like an 11am CT kick at the notoriously hostile Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois.  Both teams are coming off big wins, but the public is valuing the Wisconsin win significantly more than the Minnesota win.  Northwestern still has bowl eligibility in sights, while Purdue showed last week it does not need a bowl game to get motivated.  A win against IU and Purdue has a chance to knock off three of my four least favorite Big Ten coaches.

Trend Analysis for Northwestern

·Purdue is 2-2 ATS as an away team under Coach Walters.

·Purdue is 1-1 ATS as a favorite under Coach Walters.

· The over is 2-2 when Purdue is an away team under Coach Walters.

· The over is 2-0 when Purdue is a favorite under Coach Walters.

· Northwestern is 3-2 ATS at home this season.

· The over is 4-1 in Northwestern home games this season, including 3-0 when Northwestern is a home underdog.

· Northwestern is 5-3 ATS as an underdog this season.

· When NW has been an underdog this year, the over is 4-4.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Remove the Tag.  This week, Northwestern officially removed the interim tag for David Braun, naming him the official successor to Pat Fitzgerald.  What Coach Braun has done this year has been pretty remarkable given the offseason Northwestern had.  After the hazing scandal dominated CFB news cycles for weeks, NW fired Pat Fitzgerald just before the season started.  After getting smacked by Rutgers in the opener, the Wildcats also steamrolled UTEP on its way to an eventual 5-5 record, where they sit currently.  Northwestern, but almost every standard (even pre Fitzgerald firing) was expected to be in the bottom of a bad Big Ten West.  Instead, they are in bowl contention.  Now, look, let’s call a spade a spade, Northwestern avoided Michigan and Ohio State, and their non-conference was UTEP, Howard, and Duke.  But, given the circumstances surrounding the program, it is an impressive record relative to expectations in my mind.  Does the removal of the interim tag make any difference?  Realistically no, but Coach Odgeron may disagree.

· The Mighty Hudson.  In the words of Here Comes Treble legend, Andy Bernard, after punching a hole in the Dunder Mifflin wall: “that was an overreaction”.  After a meltdown during the entire month of October by Purdue fans about Hudson Card’s performance (myself included, I was a debbie downer), Hudson delivered his best game of the year, absolutely torching the Minnesota defense for three and a half hours Saturday.  Now, could Saturday have been a microcosm?  Of course.  However, if you take a more macro view to the entirety of the season so far, it has become evident to me that the injury woes combined with that brutal stretch in October are more to blame for Card’s poor performances.  “But did you see him against Nebraska?”  Yes, and while frustrating, the sandwich between OSU and Michigan seems to have done a number, plus, let’s give some kudos to the Nebraska defense.  Card looked great against Fresno, Illinois, and Minnesota, struggled against Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, and OSU, and played well enough to win against VT.  Based on that, I would expect Card to play pretty well Saturday, but it will be telling.  Certainly makes the QB’s job easier when you can run the ball as effectively as Purdue did Saturday too… 

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  Numbers are consistent and easy.  All the money so far has been on the Wildcats and the Under.  To me, this is a quirky line.  Taking a step back, Purdue, a 3-7 team, is on the road, against a 5-5 team, who just beat Wisconsin by 14.  Yet it is Purdue who is the 3 point favorite, and that line MOVED toward the Boilers.  Even with all the money on Northwestern, the spread moved toward Purdue which gives us some reverse money line movement.  The money skew has crossed over the 70% threshold for Northwestern, which presents the contrarian sweet spot to bet against that position and hop on Vegas’ side.  My hesitation here stems from the fact I am not sure if Purdue has it in them to cover three straight games, and even more to, putting quality back-to-back performances together.  While not as severe as the spread, there is still a significant majority of the money on the under.  Look, I get it.  An 11AM Central time kick, in Evanston, Illinois with two teams in the Big Ten West.  This is “Beth Mowans on the call” away from being as nostalgic to my childhood viewing experience as it could be.  It is no surprise the public would expect punts galore.   EDGE: Purdue spread, Over.

Trends: Does anyone LOVE seeing points on a scoreboard more than Ryan Field when Northwestern has been an underdog at home this year?  The over has yet to lose in the spot for Northwestern, and the Wildcats will surely look to try and light up the Purdue defense with points.  The total is almost exact to last week, and the spot feels similar.  Two Big Ten West teams, the under is normally a safe bet.  When Purdue is a favorite, the scoreboard also seems to light up, granted, Purdue closed as an underdog last week, but has seen the over cash in both games it has been a favorite.  There is not any historical trend analysis with two first year coaches (technically one first WEEK official head coach).  Northwestern has been decent against the spread, and Purdue has been slightly below average covering the spread.  Not enough to make a call on spread.   EDGE: Over.

Situation:  Both teams come into this spot after massive wins, not just in importance, but in the magnitude of how they won.  Northwestern beat Wisconsin by 14 (imagine beating Wisconsin, must be nice), and Purdue obliterated the boat rowers.  Northwestern has been more impressive over the season, as evidenced purely on record, but a breakdown of each team’s schedule and its relatively easy to see why.  However, against common opponents, Northwestern’s win over Wisconsin gives it a slight edge.  Both teams beat Minnesota, and both lost to Nebraska and Iowa.  Northwestern’s defense has looked very impressive the last two weeks, holding Iowa and Wisconsin to ten points each.  Purdue’s offense looked like it turned a corner, but was that a one game wonder?  Ultimately, I see cancellations everywhere from a situational standpoint and no side or total has much of an edge here.  EDGE: None.

Total Analysis:  This is a numbers play, almost inevitably.  With no trends given the youth of both coaching tenures, and both in pretty good situational spots after the wins next week, the only gambling information we can go off is the numbers.  The contrarian angle shows Purdue spread and the over as the plays.  If the public has a weekend, an under/NW parlay could be the play.  I say this, and Purdue will have an ugly win similar to VT.  My analysis tells me Hudson Card, playing a step down in defense from October, continues to have some offensive success, Purdue puts up points and gets out of Evanston at 4-7.  Fun trip down memory lane, this will be the first time Purdue has been in Evanston since 2019, when a young, unknown, walk-on named Aiden O’Connell led the Boilers to a 24-22 win.  In 2021, Wrigley saw Milton Wright go for 200+ receiving yards and three touchdowns.  Maybe 2023 can produce some magic performance too.

Prediction:  Purdue wins 28-24.

Official Plays: 1 Unit on Purdue. 1 Unit on Over 47.5.

Bonus Bets:  Not seeing any bonus bet props up on FD or DK.  Mockabee leads Purdue in road touchdowns with two.  Burks saw his first road TD in the closing seconds of the Michigan game.  Purdue has done a much better job of spreading the ball around on touchdowns.  Kind of a crap shoot, but an anytime parlay of Mockabee-Burks, Sheffield-Tracy, or some other combination could get you a nice payout.  I think Purdue defense makes a house call Saturday as well. 

Welcome to the 2023 tenth edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2023 Northwestern Wildcats.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -1 against Northwestern meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 1 point.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -3 or Northwestern +3. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 4 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Northwestern by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover (it would be a push, meaning the bet is voided).

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.