Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Northwestern

At look at the Purdue-Northwestern matchup from a gambling perspective.

Week 7 Recap

The column goes 1-1 as Purdue’s failure to score helps the under cash easily.  On the same token, Purdue needed one touchdown to cover the 30.5 and failed to do so.  Purdue has had a week of rest to prepare for Northwestern.  Coach David Braun’s Northwestern teams have been incredible ATS when they have a rest disadvantage, which is counterintuitive.  The over has been productive when Walters’ Purdue teams have a rest advantage.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 11/1/24:

Current spread: Purdue -1 (Opened Purdue -1.5).

Moneyline: Purdue -115, Northwestern -105

1H Spread: Purdue +.5, O/U 21.5

Over/Under: 46.5 (Opened 44.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 33% on Purdue, 27% on over

Money: 50% on Purdue, 51% on over

Executive Summary

Purdue comes off a bye with what is realistically the only winnable game remaining on the schedule.  The spread opened with Purdue favored, shifted to Northwestern, and now back to Purdue.  The money is split on the game, more money than bets has been placed on Purdue.  The total is almost even as well.  I would not expect much betting volume on Purdue-NW at noon.  

Trend Analysis for Northwestern

· Purdue is 1-2 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Ryan Walters.

· Purdue is 4-9 ATS against conference opponents under Walters.

· Purdue is 2-2 ATS with a rest advantage under Walters.

· The over is 2-1 when Purdue is a home favorite under Walters.

· The over is 7-5-1 when Purdue has played a conference opponent under Walters.

· The over is 3-1 when Purdue has a rest advantage under Walters.

· Northwestern is 4-4 ATS as an away underdog under Coach David Braun.

· Northwestern is 8-6 ATS against conference opponents under Braun.

· Northwestern is 5-1 ATS when Northwestern has a rest disadvantage under Braun.

· The over is 4-4 when Northwestern is an away underdog under Braun.

· The over is 7-7 when Northwestern plays a conference opponent under Braun.

· The over is 4-2 when Northwestern has a rest disadvantage under Braun.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Win one for Walters???  I do not think it is a stretch of the imagination to suggest that this is the best, and maybe only, chance for Purdue and Ryan Walters to win a game against an FBS opponent.  With OSU, PSU, MSU, and IU remaining, this is by far the easiest game and the Boilers get the Wildcats at home.  Fresh off a bye, can the Boilers show adjustment?

· Go CJ, cause that’s my CJ.  CJ Smith makes his long awaited Purdue debut this weekend.  While expectations should probably be tempered, it is hard to not get excited about this speed demon helping the Purdue offense.  The Purdue WR room has certainly left something to be desired all season, but if CJ can give even a little boost to an offense who scored 0 points a couple weeks ago, it will be a massive upgrade.      

· “If you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have one.”.  As the ancient Chinese proverb states, “if you have two quarterbacks, you do not have one.”  The meaning of this “proverb” of course is to suggest that if you are playing two different quarterbacks, neither is good enough to be the one.  Personally, I have always been a staunch hater of the two-QB system, dating back to the Marve-Terbush era and most recently, the Sindelar-Blough era.  While I think it can be an effective system for two different style QBs, I am worried the offense will just feel disoriented and without any cohesiveness due to the changes.  I do think Hudson Card should probably get a chance with CJ, but I digress.  I am curious how the QB change impacts spread and total.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  The numbers are not the most reliable, because this is a very low volume bet game.  However, the spread has been interesting.  When the spread dropped last Sunday, Purdue opened  as a small favorite.  For most of the week, Northwestern retained the title as favorite.  Then, Thursday evening, Purdue regain the favorite status with a one point edge.  We did see some money come in on Purdue when Northwestern.  While a majority of the total number of bets are on the Wildcats, the amount of money on each team is split down the middle.  This suggest that while more people are betting Northwestern, the bigger bettors are taking Purdue.  This could be an indication of sharp action.  My guess is sharps took Purdue at +1.5.  The same can be said for the over.  While a majority of bets are on the under, when the big bettors are taking a total side, they are taking the over.   EDGE: Purdue -1, Over 46.5. 

Trends: Northwestern has been incredible ATS under Braun when they have a rest disadvantage.  Other than that, the only real trends suggest that the over has had success in this spot for Purdue.  Northwestern has been pretty good ATS in conference play, while Purdue has been very below average in conference play ATS.   EDGE: Northwestern, Over.

Situation:  Both of these teams need a win desperately.  Purdue is coming off a bye, but prior to that, a 35-0 shutout loss to Oregon.  Northwestern is coming off a 40-14 to Iowa (feels weird seeing Iowa score points).  Both teams are toward the bottom of the Big Ten, so any win is massive.  From a totals standpoint, neither team has shown the ability to really score points.  Northwestern’s defense has been okay, but the offense has not shown much.  Leave it to the Purdue defense to make Northwestern’s offense look competent.   EDGE: Push, Over.

Total Analysis:  This may be emotional hedge territory.  Bet on Northwestern and hope for the Purdue win.  Northwestern has been really good in this spot.  Purdue just has not shown enough.  Does the addition of CJ Smith add a dimension to make this offense go?  I hope so.  I think Purdue will struggle to stop Northwestern, as they have struggled all year.  NW and the over.

Prediction:  Northwestern wins 27-24.

Official Plays: 1 Unit NW +1, 1 Unit Over 46.5.

Bonus Bets:  If they post CJ Smith odds, I will be taking FTD and ATD.

Welcome to the 2024 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2024 Northwestern Wildcats.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Northwestern by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.

Pregame:First Look: Northwestern | First and 10: Northwestern at Purdue | Purdue’s plan at QB? Play Hudson Card and Ryan Browne vs. Northwestern | The 3-2-1: November will go long way to define Ryan Walters’ Purdue tenure | Opponent View: Northwestern | Gold and Black Radio: Purdue prepares for Northwestern | Number Crunching: Purdue-Northwestern week | Comparing Purdue QBs Hudson Card, Ryan Browne | Gold and Black Radio: Pregame show