Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Ohio State

Here’s a breakdown of Saturday’s Purdue-Ohio State matchup from a gambling perspective.

Prior Week Recap

Column goes 2-0 last and almost nails the exact score, our 20-17 needed a Purdue field goal that ultimately was missed earlier in the game.  We will take it, another 1.5 Units.

2023 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 2-4 ATS, Overs are 3-3. 

Ohio State: 2-3 ATS,  Overs are 1-4.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 10/13/23:

Current spread: Purdue +19 (Opened Purdue +20.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +700, Ohio State -1100

1H Spread: Purdue +10.5, O/U 27.5

Over/Under: 52 (Opened 52.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 24% on Purdue, 27% on over

Money: 47% on Purdue, 37% on over

Executive Summary

Purdue has a great situational spot after an ugly loss at Iowa, and the Buckeyes coming in undefeated.  This is a trap game environment with a noon kick on the road for the Buckeyes, while a top-10 matchup with Penn State awaits them in Columbus next week.  The public heavily backs the Buckeyes, and a contrarian angle leads us to the Boilers.  This is the Buckeyes’ first return to WL since the 2018 loss, costing the Buckeyes a trip to the CFB playoffs. 

Trend Analysis for Ohio State

·Purdue is 1-3 ATS as a home team under Coach Ryan Walters.

·Purdue is 1-3 ATS as an underdog under Walters.

· The over is 3-1 when Purdue is a home team under Walters.

· The over is 1-3 when Purdue is an underdog under Walters.

· Under Ryan Day, Ohio State is 9-7-2 ATS as an away favorite.

· Day’s Buckeyes are 20-14-2 ATS in conference games.

· After a win, Day’s Buckeyes are 25-18-2 ATS.

· Under Day, the total went over 12 times in 18 games when  Ohio State has been an away favorite.

· The total has gone over 22 times in 36 games when Ohio State has played a conference opponent under Ferentz. 

· In their last 6 games prior to playing Penn State, Ohio State is 5-1 ATS and the over has hit in all 6.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Hammer Down Cancer, R.I.P. Tyler Trent.  I have been to a LOT of Purdue games in my lifetime, and there has never been one quite like the Boilers 2018 upset of the Buckeyes.  A night time atmosphere like you dream about in Ross-Ade, on national TV, and you beat the #2 team in the country by 29.  Almost 5 years to the day, the Boilers will once again be asking for some Tyler Trent magic.  While we cannot recreate the magic that Tyler brought on that October night, we can root extra hard that a Trent (Ethan) is on the sidelines on a day in which many will have his older brother on their minds.  Rest in Peace.   

· Spoilermakers.  No team has earned the reputation of a spoiler quite like the Boilers.  While many outside the program will attribute the nickname to Jeff Brohm’s tenure, those tried and true fans know the long winded history of Purdue and upsets.  Not only have the Boilers had success as an underdog against ranked teams, but especially against Ohio State in West Lafayette.  Ryan Walters looks to become the 4th Purdue coach since 2000 to upset the Buckeyes.

·Trap Game City.  Ohio State gets Purdue with a top 10 matchup on the horizon.  Penn State rolls into Columbus next Saturday in what could be one of the defining games for the Big Ten, and for the college football playoff.  This is a classic trap game, and a noon kick in West Lafayette is the perfect place for it.  Worth noting, thanks to Chris Fallica, Ohio State has scored 49 points in its last 6 games during the week prior to Penn State.  However, to qualify, those games were against Tulane, Nebraska (2x), Iowa, IU, and Rutgers.  Not exactly a murderer’s row.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  Great contrarian angle here for the Boilers.  Bet percentage is extremely high on the Buckeyes, with the threshold crossing 70%.  In addition, there is more money on Purdue than bets, which can suggest that the sharp bettors are backing Purdue, since sharp bettors, as a rule of thumb, are betting larger amounts.  The over/under is a little interesting.  Yesterday, there was a ton of money bringing the total down to 50.5, before money poured in on the over driving the number up to 52.  The money is now firmly on under once the number hit 52.  From a contrarian standpoint, the over would be the play if you are fading the public, but the over has also lost its value once the number went up to 52.  EDGE: Purdue spread, none.

Trends: Ohio State has been fairly consistent in covering the spread under Day.  They have weirdly struggled with ranked teams ATS, but have taken care of business otherwise.  The Ohio State before Penn State trend is somewhat concerning, but the teams, specifically in their respective years, were not very good.  Purdue still has a small sample size of home games, but did secure their first home cover against Illinois.  The over has been a cash cow in Ross Ade Stadium, but the over has also struggled when Purdue is an underdog.  The over has been great in Ohio State games both as an away favorite and in conference games. EDGE: Ohio State spread, Over.

Situation:  This is a phenomenal spot for Purdue situationally.  Arguably, we have not seen Purdue in a spot like this since Virginia Tech.  Purdue is coming off a 6 point loss in Iowa City in which the offense looked lifeless, and Iowa won a game without completing a pass to a receiver.  Meanwhile, Ohio State considers their undefeated season after beating Notre Dame and then beating Maryland by 17.  While they did not cover, Ohio State pulled away in the second half and controlled the game against the Terrapins.  The situational concern here is that given the five year anniversary of the Tyler Trent game, Ohio State may be a little more fired up for their return to West Lafayette.  From a total standpoint, the Purdue offense is surely due for a bounceback, while the Ohio State defense has not allowed more than 17 points all season.  The lookahead spot for Ohio State with a top 10 Penn State matchup next week also gives Purdue a fantastic situational edge.  EDGE: Purdue spread, no lean.

Total Analysis:  There is not much analysis on the total.  I think there is value in the under, because of the spread going up after so much money game in once the spread hit 50.5.  After the spread hit 50.5, over money piled on, until the spread hit 52, and the under money game in.  I think sharps are confident in 51.  From a spread standpoint, the situational spot and numbers really make Purdue spread a great play.  The public is backing the Buckeyes and there is some sharp money on the Boilers.  With the situational spot factored in, I love the Boilers to cover.   

Prediction:  Ohio State wins 34-17.

Official Plays: 2 Units on Purdue +19.  .5 Unit Under 52.

Bonus Bets:  First Touchdown:  With Max Klare out, I once again love the value with Garrett Miller at +3800.  Additionally, our guy, Deion Burks, is at +1300 which is phenomenal value too.  While it would be a surprise for Purdue to score first, if they receive the ball first, it would not be uncommon for Purdue to score with their initial script.  For Ohio State, I like Egbuka at +650.  While the attention will be on Marvin Harrison Jr., the Buckeyes talent at WR is too good.  34-17 exact is 100/1 as well.  

Welcome to the 2023 seventh edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2023 Ohio State Hawkeyes.

Related: Vegas Odds Week 7 | Purdue Football Notebook | Gold and Black Radio: Ohio State pregame | Matchup Preview: Purdue-Ohio State | First Look: Ohio State | First and 10: Ohio State at Purdue | Down several key players, Purdue looks to be Spoilermakers vs. Ohio State, again | Monday Night Memories: Kelly/Tony Trent talk about the legacy of their son Purdue legend Tyler Trent | The 3-2-1: Seeking offensive groove | acrepro.com Purdue Football Buy/Sell Week 7 | “I get chills, I get goosebumps” Purdue’s magical win over Ohio State resonates five years later as Tyler Trent’s story continues |

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -1 against Ohio State meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 1 point.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +19 or Ohio State -19. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to lose by 18 or less, or win.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Ohio State beats Purdue by 1, Ohio State has won the game, but Purdue has covered the spread.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.