Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Ohio State

Purdue-Ohio State in Columbus from a gambling perspective.

Week 8 Recap

Similar to Week 1, the column goes 1-1 missing a 2-0 by a half point.  The total goes under 46.5 (over closing line of 45.5) and NW covers with a win by 6 in OT.  Purdue loses yet another game in overtime and fails to cover for the 6th time this year.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00 am on 11/8/24:

Current spread: Purdue +38 (Opened Purdue +34.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +5000, Ohio State -100000

1H Spread: Purdue +23.5, O/U 30.5

Over/Under: 53.5 (Opened 52.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 48% on Purdue, 75% on over

Money: 33% on Purdue, 74% on over

Executive Summary

Purdue comes into the game just hoping to avoid a blowout of titanic proportions.  The line opened at 34.5 but quickly moved to 38 when Ohio State money poured on.  Money has poured in on the over which has held steady.  Ohio State has largely struggled the week after Penn State games, but overall has been great against the spread in conference games.  Purdue has been horrible ATS in almost every situation under Walters.  The question for this game, and probably the most fun bet, will Purdue score?  Purdue to score over 7 points is +115, so the books think the Boilers get a touchdown and that is it.

Trend Analysis for Ohio State

· Purdue is 3-4 ATS as an away underdog under Coach Ryan Walters.

· Purdue is 4-10 ATS against conference opponents under Walters.

· Purdue is 5-9 ATS after a loss under Walters.

· The over is 3-3-1 when Purdue is an away underdog under Walters.

· The over is 8-5-1 when Purdue has played a conference opponent under Walters.

· The over is 9-4-1 after a Purdue loss under Walters.

· Ohio State is 21-14-1 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Ryan Day.

· Ohio State is 28-18-2 ATS against conference opponents under Day.

· Ohio State is 34-22-2 ATS after an Ohio State win under Day.

· The over is 18-18 when Ohio State is a home favorite under Day.

· The over is 25-22-1 when Ohio State plays a conference opponent under Day.

· The over is 31-26-1 after an Ohio State win under Day.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Happy Valley Hangover.  Maybe the single factor Purdue has going for it on Saturday is the potential for an Ohio State hangover.  Now, to clarify, this does not mean Purdue has a chance to win.  It means that maybe, just maybe, Ohio State comes out a little sluggish after the massive win over Penn State and wins by 35 instead of 49.  Ohio State’s schedule gives it two relatively easy games in Purdue and NW before *double-checks notes* their top 10 showdown with IU (which everyone expected and saw coming) and a revenge game against Michigan.  Ohio State has not covered the week after beating Penn State since 2019, when the Buckeyes thumped Michigan 56-27.  The results since include a 22 point win over Rutgers as a 37.5 point favorite, a 9 point win over Nebraska as a 14 point favorite, a 14 point win over Northwestern as a 38 point favorite, and a 14 point win over Wisconsin as a 14.5 point favorite.  Twice in those results Ohio State has faced a team after Penn State as a 35+ point favorite and failed to cover both times.  Is Ohio State due for a post Penn State cover?   

· “A burst of speed, HE’S STILL GOING!” October 20, 2018 will live in the minds of Purdue fans for years to come.  The Pro: That night was incredible.  Unforgettable.  Tyler Trent, the Markus Bailey pick-6 to cap it off.  The Con: Ohio State and their fans do not forget it. It lives rent free in their head every time they see Purdue’s name.  It cost Ohio State a 2018 playoff berth.  So while Ohio State may sleep walk to a win against NW, every year since 2018, OSU seems to remember October 20, 2018 quite well.  There are no more players on OSU’s roster who would have been on that 2018 team, so hopefully, this has run its course.   

Ohioan Boilers Return·   Based on the Purdue football website, Purdue has twelve players on the roster who hail from the Buckeye State, with Jamarius Dinkins being from Columbus.  The coaching staff (really Jeff Brohm’s staff) did a great job recruiting Cincinnati talent.  Arguably the best offensive weapon, Max Klare, went to high school in Ohio.  This team’s Ohio roots run deep.  While I lived in Cincinnati for three years, I did not grow up there, but I venture to guess that it is the dream of most young Ohioan football players to don the scarlet and gray.  These players chose a different school, but I am sure they would love nothing more than to give O$U a competitive game.  This is a chance for a couple members of the team to show out for their state and try to give a glimpse of the talent that left.  Will it make a difference between a cover or not?    

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  The money is pretty heavily backing Ohio State here.  Fresh off their top 5 win over Penn State in Happy Valley, the Buckeyes are pulling 67% of the money wagered even with the size of the spread being as large as it is.  Although the line opened around 34.5, but it almost immediately shot up to 38 and has hung around the number all week.  At first blush, it looks like an influx of money poured in on Ohio State out of the gate, forcing the books to raise the number.  34.5 would seem to be enticing to the average bettor, since Ohio State could score 35 points at home against a horrendous Purdue team and cover.  But, as we have seen this year, sportsbooks are not always correct and it is about reducing liabilities.  If so much money flooded the Buckeyes spread at 34.5, the sportsbooks have an opportunity to really protect themselves even if the numbers suggested that 34.5 to be accurate.  The caveat here is Purdue has been an enigma in regards to number analysis, so would it shock me if the sportsbooks took a hit here and O$U wins by 50?  Nope.  From a totals standpoint, all the money is on the over, which is a bit surprising to me.  Purdue’s offense has been inept, and that was really evidenced against Oregon (even though they averaged 5 yards a carry on the ground which is INSANE to average that and not score a point).  However, I have witnessed Purdue team’s lose 49-0 and 56-0 to Ohio State, so it is not even remotely crazy to suggest OSU cannot hit this number by themselves.  Still, the contrarian would side with the sportsbooks and ride Purdue and the Under due to the high volume of money on the opposing sides.    EDGE: Purdue +38, Under 53.5

Trends: The general synopsis for Purdue ATS trends under Walters is that they are, to put simply, bad.  Over the last two years, Purdue has rarely covered, no matter the trend.  Walters’ Purdue teams have been horrendous ATS in conference games, and not much better as an underdog (which, they have been an underdog in almost every conference game).  Ohio State, on the other hand, has been relatively good in most spots under Day.  The Buckeyes are certainly over .500 in these spots and have been a steady horse to ride to the bank.  Now, the one trend that piques curiosity is Ohio State’s performances under Day the week after the Penn State game.  Almost every year, Penn State has been Ohio State’s second biggest game of the year (with the biggest, of course, being their yearly slaughter of Akron/Kent State/Toledo/Ohio or whatever other small Ohio MAC school wants to try their hand).  From a totals standpoint, Ohio State’s trends lean slightly over and Purdue’s trends really lean over in these spots.  The question will largely be, “can Purdue score?”  If Purdue gets 7, do they hold O$U to under 47?    EDGE: Ohio State, Over.

Situation:  This is a pretty good spot for Purdue, but so was Oregon.  Purdue comes off an overtime loss in what realistically was the last winnable game on the schedule and Purdue’s only hope to beat an FBS school this year (No offense, Sycamores).  On the flip side, Ohio State is coming off a massive win that positions them for a Big Ten championship showdown with the Ducks, assuming they are able to beat Cignetti.  Ohio State has struggled the week after Penn State in past years coming out flat and letting weak opponents respectively lose as opposed to a blow out.  However, the Ohio State offense has really struggled and a get-right game against a bad Purdue defense might be exactly what the Buckeyes need before heading into the final quarter of the season.  A horrible Purdue team facing an OSU team after a huge win, combined with both offenses struggling as of late means the lean goes Purdue and over. EDGE: Purdue, Over.

Total Analysis:  Ohio State has not allowed more than 17 points to an opponent not named Oregon.  The Buckeyes offense has been lackluster as of late, but possess the skill position fire power to score from anywhere on the field.  The contrarian approach is to take Purdue, as gross as that sounds.  In my head, I do not see a world where Purdue covers this, and frankly, I do not see a world where Purdue scores outside a lucky big play or a defensive turnover which Will Howard has been prone to.  Taking the under as an emotional hedge because although Ohio State could hit over 53.5 by themselves, more than likely, the over would mean Purdue scores, and not getting shut out on Saturday is a win to me.  How far we have fallen.  Buckeyes win 42-7.  

Official Plays: .5 Unit Purdue +38, 1 Unit Under 53.5.  1 Unit 1H Ohio State spread.

Bonus Bets: Ohio State Defense anytime +320, CJ Smith anytime +750, the lightest sprinkle on CJ Smith FTD at +5500, and Same Game Parlay ATD: Judkins/Egbuka/Henderson +270.  The Ohio State first touchdown odds are so low and provide no real value.  Four players have less than +500 odds.  Will Howard is interesting at +950, but I think the first touchdown probably comes from distance, which would suggest a Jenkins/Henderson run or a WR TD.

Welcome to the 2024 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2024 Ohio State Buckeyes.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Ohio State by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.