Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Oregon State

Purdue-Oregon State from a gambling perspective.

Week 2 Recap

The column goes 1-1, the over hit but the spread……. maybe the worst bet in column history.  Notre Dame covered the spread without a single ounce of doubt, while Notre Dame also single handedly went over 47.  The entire focus this week is obviously on how Purdue bounces back but man was last week atrocious.  The bad news is, Oregon State needs a bounce back this week just as badly.

Futures

For those unfamiliar, Sportsbooks put out betting lines at the start of every season for bets related to the entirety of the season.  These are known as “future bets” or “futures”.  I will keep these updated through the season to show change in perceptions by sportsbook on Purdue (lines provided by FanDuel, this is not an endorsement of FanDuel, please see caveat on shopping lines below).  Please note, the win total amounts will not change, with that being said:

Purdue to win the national title: 1000-to-1 (Opened 1000-to-1)

2024 Regular Season Wins: 4.5 (Over 4.5 wins +142, Under 4.5 wins -178)

Purdue to win 6 or more games: +300

Purdue to win the Big Ten: 400-to-1 (Opened 400-to-1)

*NEWLY ADDED* Hudson Card Heisman: 500-1 

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 9/20/24:

Current spread: Purdue +4.5 (Opened Purdue +6).

Moneyline: Purdue +165, Oregon State -200

1H Spread: Purdue +2.5, O/U 24.5

Over/Under: 50.5 (Opened 50.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 21% on Purdue, 62% on over

Money: 52% on Purdue, 54% on over

Executive Summary

Both these teams are desperate for a strong bounceback to avenge blowout losses against rivals from the week prior.  Both are in identical situations, and both trot out relatively inexperienced head coaches with not much sample size for trend analysis.  There seems to be a little bit more sharp betting backing the Boilers, but it seems more of that support game at +6.  Purdue has seen games go over at a pretty high percentage after a loss, but Purdue has yet to see the total go over when Purdue is an away underdog.  

Trend Analysis for Oregon State

· Purdue is 2-2 ATS as an away underdog under Coach Ryan Walters.

· Purdue is 2-3 ATS against Non-Conference Opponents under Walters.

· Purdue is 4-4 ATS after a loss under Walters.

· The over is 0-3-1 when Purdue is an away underdog under Walters.

· The over is 2-3 when Purdue has played a Non-Conference Opponent under Walters.

· The over is 5-2-1 the week after a Purdue loss under Walters.

· This is the first year for Coach Bray at Oregon State, so take trends lightly.

· Oregon State is 0-1 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Trent Bray.

· Oregon State is 1-2 ATS against Non Conference Opponents under Bray.

· The over is 0-1 when Oregon State is a home favorite under Bray.

· The over is 1-2 when Oregon State plays a Non-Conference Opponent under Bray.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Rebound.  The good news for these teams?  Someone has to win on Saturday.  Both teams were embarrassed on Saturday (albeit one more than the other… Purdue) and have an opportunity to highlight their ability to rebound off a massive defeat.  Oregon State lost by 35, but at least showed some fight early and put up over 300 yards of total offense.  Purdue is coming off the worst margin of loss at home in program history.  This is another way of analyzing the situational spot, but much will be made of how each team responds after a big loss to a rival this past weekend.

· Body Clocks.  Maybe my favorite buzzword whenever describing teams flying cross-county, but Saturday’s game will feature a consideration of Purdue’s body clocks.  What do I mean by this?  Purdue will be playing a game at 8:30pm ET that is, obviously, 5:30pm PT.  While their bodies may think of a night game due to their acclimation to eastern time, the sun will be shining (does the sun shine in Oregon?) and it will very much be an early evening game.  Purdue left a day earlier to acclimate to the time zone change, but it would not surprise if Purdue got off to a little bit of a sluggish start due to the jet lag adjustment.

· Transfer Health.  Purdue is still waiting to flash its shiny new acquisitions from the transfer portal, particularly with the Georgia transfers C.J. Smith and Nyland Green.  While neither have been officially ruled out, it seems unlikely CJ will play this weekend.  While both will make an impact, CJ Smith’s presence would be an immediate necessity with his game breaking speed.  If he makes an appearance, this offense could add another gear.  One positive from last week, we did see transfer Kam Brown make some plays and as a former UCLA, a west coast game should be right up his alley.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  No surprise here, but the amount of bets on this game thus far are relatively low.  Oregon State-Purdue just does not move the needle for most, and after both teams were bludgeoned last weekend, it should be expected that bettors are staying away from this game.  Part of this is also due to the timing.  With an 8:30pm ET start, most gamblers with likely place their bets on this game after the 3:30pm slate ends.  I would really pay attention to line movement then.  With that being said, so far, there have been less bets on Purdue, but the bets that have been placed on Purdue have been much larger wagers.  The low bet % yet high money % could suggest sharp bettors are hammering Purdue given the wager size, with much more public bettors backing Oregon State.  The movement of the spread has been interesting as well, pretty quickly after opening, the spread dropped from 6 to 4.5.  This could suggest early sharp action believed 6 was way too many points forcing the sportsbooks to adjust.  Early money has been on the over, but slightly less money is on the over than bets placed, this could also suggest a slight sharp lean to the under since more money is on the under than bets on the under.  The total has held steady all week and unless there is a barrage of bets after the 3:30 slate, not sure I see this moving.  EDGE: Purdue, Under.

Trends: As referenced above, trends are rather light this week.  Oregon State is under a new head coach, even though Coach Bray has been employed as a coach at Oregon State for roughly five years.  So far this season, the games have gone under for Oregon State 2 out of 3 times, and Oregon State has failed to cover 2 out of 3 times.  A law of averages may suggest both regress to the mean, but it is too early in the season to tell.  On the Purdue front, Walters’ Purdue teams have been extremely average against the spread.  There is not really a telling trend from an ATS standpoint for a Walters coached team.  The two trends that have some discussion around them are both for the total.  When Purdue has come off a loss, the over has hit at an extremely high clip.  However, Purdue also has never seen the total go over for an away game as an underdog.  The over pushed at Michigan, but failed to go over at Northwestern, at Iowa, and at Virginia Tech.  The over, in Purdue games under Walters, is 5-2-1.  However, only two of those 8 instances have been a road game after a loss in the Walters tenure. The total went over in the Nebraska game last year after Purdue lost to O$U the week prior, and after the Nebraska loss, the over pushed at Michigan.  This will also be the first time Purdue has traveled out West since the 2019 game at Nevada.  Purdue, after a strong start, gave the game away with turnovers as Nevada covered, won outright, and the total went over.      EDGE: No ATS edge, Under.

Situation:  In almost any other situation, I would be ecstatic about the spot here for Purdue.  Coming off an incredibly embarrassing loss to your rival at home where you were dominated?  That is a prime spot to take that team the following week.  The issue here is… that is also the exact same spot Oregon State is in.  Both teams are fresh off thrashings by their rival at home in embarrassing fashion.  So situationally, there is not really an edge.  Both teams failed to put up points, while also giving up a ton.  Both teams were not even close to covering.  This is essentially a must-win for both schools in extremely similar spots.  The only difference, Purdue has their first Big Ten matchup next week with Nebraska and homecoming on the horizon, while Oregon State has a bye.  Given the magnitude of the beating last week, I do not worry Purdue will be looking ahead.  EDGE: No edge, both schools in the exact same situational spot.

Total Analysis:  This is an extremely evenly matched game on paper with two schools both desperate to rebound after horrific losses prior.  There is the slightest lean to Purdue, since more money is on Purdue than bets, suggesting some sharp influence.  How much influence is hard to know, since the overall volume of bets is so low.  I do think sharp money came in heavy at +6 on Purdue, and has maybe let up.  Again, we may see some movement after the 3:30pm slate, so keep an eye on movement.  With a general lack of trends, and both teams in the same situational spot, this is as even as it can get. 

Prediction:  Oregon State wins 27-23.

Official Plays: 1 Unit Purdue +4.5. 1 Unit Under 51 (I am buying the half unit since 51 is a football number).  I will be placing a small wager on Purdue ML as well.

Bonus Bets:  Hard to cash prop bets when your team only scores one touchdown with backups in.  Max Klare to score the first touchdown at +1800 is my favorite value play.  If you want even more of a flier, Kam Brown is currently +3000.  Hankerson for Oregon State has scored four touchdowns this year including two last week against Oregon.  His +550 odds for FTD are not bad if you believe in Oregon State, but his odds to score two touchdowns at +425 are particularly interesting.  Devin Mockobee has yet to score a touchdown yet this year, and I just do not foresee that continuing.  +115 for an anytime touchdown score from Mockobee may be a safer value play as well. 

Welcome to the 2024 Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2024 Oregon State Beavers.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Oregon State by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.

Pregame:First Look: Purdue-Oregon State | First and 10: Purdue at Oregon State | Purdue’s Ryan Walters: ‘Fully expect us to respond the right way’ | Number Crunching: Purdue-Oregon State week |
The 3-2-1: How will Purdue respond in wake of historic loss? | Trips to West Coast: Sun, surf, mountains, losses for Purdue | In the Huddle: Jeffrey M’Ba | Opponent View: Oregon State |