Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Wisconsin

Purdue – Wisconsin from a gambling perspective.

Prior Week Recap

Column giveth, Column taketh away.  Column goes 0-2 after a penalty negates the over.  The cherry on top?  First touchdown scorer goes 0-fer as a wide open touchdown goes right through Hatcher’s hands in the first quarter.  A big shout out (TIC) to turnovers, the real “total going over” killer.  Onward.

2023 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 1-2 ATS, Overs are 1-2. 

Wisconsin: 1-2 ATS,  Overs are 1-2.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 9/21/23:

Current spread: Purdue +6 (Opened Purdue +7).

Moneyline: Purdue +190, Wisconsin -230

1H Spread: Purdue +2.5, O/U 26.5

Over/Under: 53.5 (Opened 54.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 51% on Purdue, 67% on over

Money: 74% on Purdue, 69% on over

Executive Summary

Public seems to be backing Purdue, which, given their performance last week, is a bit of a surprise.  Public likes the over too.  This is a different Wisconsin team from an identity standpoint, and they are having a down year.  Purdue has a turnover bug and still has not figured out short yard distances.  Wisconsin has not looked great so far this year.  Luke Fickell’s Cincinnati teams tended to cover better as underdogs.  Ryan Walters was able to shut down Wisconsin last year, but that was with a completely different Wisconsin team.  Purdue needs to clean up a lot on a short week.  I do not know what it will take for Purdue to finally beat Wisconsin.  I have very little faith in Purdue, and after an 0-2 column last week, maybe we use our fade powers to benefit Purdue fans.  Until Purdue can beat Wisconsin, Wisconsin it is.  

Trend Analysis for Wisconsin

Since this is Fickell’s first year as a HC at Wisconsin, I will be analyzing his numbers at Cincinnati from a trends perspective.  We will also look into Ryan Walters’ experience against Wisconsin, however, please note that because of the drastic change in offensive identity under Fickell, we will need to take Walters’ trends with a grain of salt. 

·Purdue is 0-2 ATS as a home team under Coach Walters, and is 1-1 ATS as an underdog after the loss last week. 

· The over is 1-1 when Purdue is a home team under Coach Walters, but it is 0-2 when Purdue is an underdog.

· In 2022, Coach Walters’ Illini defense held Wisconsin to ten points in a 34-10 win.  Braelon Allen was a complete non-factor as his eight carries netted two yards.  Worth noting, Graham Mertz played QB for that Wisconsin team.

· In 2021, Coach Walters’ Illini defense gave up twenty four points as the Illini were shut out 24-0.  Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi had their way on the ground combining for over 250 yards rushing.

· Under Luke Fickell, Cincinnati was 7-9-1 ATS in games where Cincinnati was the away favorite.  This will be the second time this season Wisconsin will be an away favorite, after losing 31-22 at Washington State.   

· Fickell’s Bearcats were 21-27-1 ATS in conference games.  Even with a losing record, Cincinnati covered conference games on average by 1.1 points.  So, when Cincinnati covered, they covered with some room to spare.

· Under Fickell, the total went over seven times in seventeen games when Cincinnati was an away favorite.

· The total has gone over nineteen times in forty nine games when Cincinnati played a conference opponent under Fickell.

· Luke Fickell is 0-1 lifetime in Ross-Ade as a head coach, albeit an interim one.  Is this noteworthy?  No.  But any chance I get to talk about Purdue beating Ohio State, especially given the two-headed monster of TerBush and Marve, I am taking that opportunity 10/10 times.    

· Purdue has not won a Friday game since 2017.  However, that win was at home against Ohio.  All three of Purdue’s Friday losses have come away from Ross Ade.  This includes losses to Auburn in the Music City Bowl,  at Nevada, and at Minnesota.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Twenty Years.  This will be almost twenty years to the date that Purdue walked into Camp Randall in October of 2003 and beat Wisconsin.  Purdue’s history versus Wisconsin since is well known.  Obviously these players have not been apart of every Purdue loss to Wisconsin, but the fact is surely known.  However, there is one man in the Purdue football locker room who has recently beaten Wisconsin, and he just so happens to be the head coach.

· Feelin’ like ‘97.  In a more intense degree of magnitude, the Boilers have not beaten Wisconsin at home since 1997.  I attended this game as a 4 year old.  I will be attending tomorrow as a 30 year old.  If you think that is depressing to read, imagine writing it.  Tiller beat Wisconsin in his first year, why can’t Walters?
·Bring on the illiNOISE.  Look, you cannot have a look ahead spot in a short week against a team you have not beaten since 2003.  BUT, if there ever was a time, from a coaching perspective, it would be with the head coach’s prior employer up next on the schedule.  Most are privy to the “beef” along I-74 (shoutout Covington Beef House) between Walters and Bielema, so I expect next week to be massive for both coaches.  Again, this is an extreme stretch to suggest this will factor in at all with Wisconsin being the top dog still in the West, but it bears noting.

·”Hurt” by Nine Inch Nails, cover by Johnny Cash.  Injuries will play a massive role this week, more so for Wisconsin than Purdue, as Wisconsin has quite the injury list.  Center Jake Renfro, who is yet to make his debut, Isaiah Mullens, the entire tight end group, etc. are all injured and at best questionable.  On Purdue’s side, Gus Hartwig still looks to not be 100% and there are still questions around Garrett Miller’s health.  Salim Turner-Mohammed needs to get going in a thin secondary as well.  Hartwig and Miller, at full health, could be exactly what this offense needs to get over the hump of short yardage execution. 

Related: Vegas Insider College Football Odds

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  Surprisingly, it seems as if Purdue is the much higher bet side here.  The number opened at seven and has come down to six.  I am curious how much of the money was on Purdue prior to the number moving.  It is interesting to see the significant difference in money bet versus number of bets on Purdue.  There is significantly more money, so one could argue that sharp gamblers are backing Purdue.  However, any time the money on a team is that one sided, it always breeds cause for concern in backing that team.  Sharp bettors hit on average at about 60%.  They are still losing 40% of the time.  That one sided of money, for both Purdue and the Over can spell trouble.   EDGE: Wisconsin spread, Under.

Trends: Luke Fickell has typically seen more success ATS in his head coaching career as an underdog.  Mind you, a majority of this occurred at Cincinnati.  Ryan Walters dominated Wisconsin last year, but this is almost a completely new team.  Purdue has shown early signs under Walters that home field advantage may be a disadvantage, but with only one road game to compare, it is hard to definitely say.     EDGE: Slight edge to Wisconsin until Purdue covers at home.

Situation:  What an interesting situational spot.  Purdue comes off a primetime loss defined by Garrett Schrader’s shocking elusiveness and Purdue’s inability to value the football.  Two hundred yards rushing to an opposing quarterback, four turnovers, and Purdue still had a chance to make that a game.  Purdue’s defense has been dragged through the coals over the week, maybe rightfully so, but the turnovers did nothing to help.  Purdue’s offense has shown life, but have been the worst short yardage team in the country.  Wisconsin, on the other hand, is not exactly dominating opponents.  The Badgers, in their new offensive identity, have scored just 22 points in their only power 5 battle this season (38 and 35 against Buffalo and Georgia Southern, respectively).  The Wisconsin defense has not looked much like a typical Wisconsin defense, giving up 31 points to Washington State, and seeming to struggle against the run.  The public does not seem to be particularly high on either team.  Purdue certainly looked worse, and Wisconsin is coming off a win.  This is a slightly better spot for Purdue, with the defense having a chance to redeem itself and the offense needing to prove it can take care of the ball.  Both teams have scored lately, and I would expect people to see this game going over.  EDGE: Purdue spread, the Under.

Total Analysis:  I sound like a broken record here, but, as demonstrated last week, apparently have no feel.  The eye test tells me this game should go over, Purdue offense has been competent when they do not turn the ball over, and the defense has been gashed.  Wisconsin is still transitioning offensively, but now that the Big Ten season has started, I would still expect their sar running backs to carry the load.  The running backs, with the new Wisconsin offense, are seeing less men in the box and they can really run the ball with success.  Injuries for both teams are a major question.  With the uncertainty, we are going to back Wisconsin from a contrarian standpoint, and hope we see a resurgent Purdue defense that keeps this total under.  Maybe this is a subconscious emotional hedge, if Purdue keeps the game close, I will be thrilled.  Ultimately, until Purdue beats Wisconsin, I do not believe it can or will happen.  Advanced analytics like Wisconsin a whole lot more than Purdue, and until Purdue proves to me ball security is a priority, Wisconsin is the play.  

Prediction:  Wisconsin wins 30-23.

Official Plays: 1 Unit Wisconsin -6.  .5 Unit Under 53.5.

Bonus Bets:  First Touchdown: For Purdue, I like Max Klare +1600.  Wisconsin should key on Burks, and I would expect a change in the short yard play calling, which, to me, makes sense to get the tight end more involved.  For Wisconsin, Skyler Bell leads Wisconsin wide receivers in receptions.  +1600 is some pretty good value.  A “don’t overthink it” bet: Braelon Allen and Devin Mockobee both to score is +200.

Welcome to the 2023 third edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2023 Wisconsin Badgers.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +6 against Wisconsin meaning a sportsbook would expect Wisconsin to win by 6 points.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

MORE: First look: Wisconsin | First and 10: Wisconsin at Purdue | Three Thoughts From The Weekend: Three-game assessments, Purdue basketball and more | Gold and Black Radio: Purdue looks for fixes ahead of Wisconsin visit | Turnovers, penalties must be reduced if Purdue wants to end 16-game skid vs. Wisconsin | 3-2-1: More Deion Burks, please | Number Crunching: Week 3 | Opponent View: Wisconsin | Matchup preview: Purdue-Wisconsin | In the huddle: LB OC Brothers

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +6 or Wisconsin -6. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to lose by 5 or less, or win outright.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Wisconsin beats Purdue by 2, Wisconsin has won the game, but Purdue has covered.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.